May 8, 2012, 7:27 AM
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Here's a quick first take on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's unity deal with Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz.
I don't think that this move was either motivated by or will impact Netanyahu's decisions regarding Iran's nuclear weapons program. If the elections had been carried out in September, as we thought, Netanyahu would certainly have been reelected. Obama, concerned about his foreign policy bona fides and the Jewish vote on the eve of his reelection bid, would have been unable to undermine Netanyahu on Iran or just about anything else. So from Netanyahu's perspective, a September election date immunized him from White House pressure.
True, Mofaz has been parroting former Mossad chief Meir Dagan's attacks on Netanyahu, but no one really cares too much about the criticisms. This is particularly true because Dagan, et. al. actually share Netanyahu's assessment of the Iranian threat. They just don't want him to be the man dealing with it because they hate him personally.
They know, and Mofaz knows, and Obama knows that the Israeli public will rally around Netanyahu in the event he orders an attack. So widening the coalition would only impact his decision on Iran at the margins, if at all. I suppose from the perspective of optics, it is nice to go into such a mission with a massive coalition standing with you.
Some on the right have voiced concerns that Netanyahu wants this coalition so he can reinstate negotiations with the Palestinians and withdraw from Judea and Samaria. Maybe. But it's hard for me to believe that Netanyahu will want to go full speed ahead with that. What would he stand to gain? Moreover, the Palestinians are the ones who ended the talks, not Netanyahu. And with Islamists rising to power throughout the Arab world and in Egypt particularly, Mahmoud Abbas has no incentive to return to negotiations.
Aside from that, it is possible that Netanyahu will use the cover he gets from Kadima to destroy homes in Beit El along the lines that the Supreme Court has ordered by July. But he probably would have done it anyway -- or not. It all depends on what he thinks he can get away with. If he decides not to destroy them, it will be easier for him to stand up the Supreme Court, whose decision doesn't pass the laugh test, with a coalition of 94 than with a coalition of 66. And it will be easier for him to bow to the decision of the Supreme Court with a coalition of 94 than a coalition of 66.
Here it is important to note that to a large extent, Netanyahu has built his present power on his refusal to commit seriously to any binding position on the Palestinians. I don't see him sacrificing this winning policy any time soon by following in Ariel Sharon's footsteps and betraying his political camp and ideology completely.
I think the unity deal is an example of a situation in which Netanyahu was presented with an offer he'd be an idiot to refuse. In return for essentially nothing, he built himself the strongest and largest coalition Israel has ever seen. He gave Mofaz nothing but breathing space for a year. Mofaz didn't even get a governing portfolio. And in exchange Netanyahu received unprecedented power and political stability for more than a year.
Kadima was set to lose half its seats in the Knesset in the next election. It may still lose half its seats in the next election. It may split apart. A million things can happen. But Mofaz probably figures that whereas if the elections were held in September he'd be blamed for the loss, by October 2013, he will have figured out someone else to blame for the defeat of his party.
Finally, there is an economic aspect to this decision. By bringing Kadima into his coalition, Netanyahu effectively ensured that his free market economic policies will be maintained and the socialist voices in Israeli politics will be marginalized for the next year or so. With France going socialist, Israel's Left, led by Labor Party leader and Marxist Shelly Yahimovich would have had more resonance in the public for its statist, deficit spending economic platform. Now Netanyahu got another year during which the public will see what those policies are doing to Europe and so make his economic arguments for him.
All in all this is a great day for Netanyahu. I hope that I am right that he won't use his new strength to destroy his political party as Sharon did before him. I don't see any previous action on his part that lends to that conclusion. But certainly the public, and particularly the Likud members who are in politics to represent and advance their values and not just to gain power for power's sake need to think carefully about their strengths and weaknesses. They need to base their actions over the next year on a strategy that maximizes the former and minimizes the latter understanding all the time that they are dealing with an incredibly powerful party leader.
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'I hope that I am right that he won't use his new strength to destroy his political party as Sharon did before him
I don't see any previous action on his part that lends to that conclusion.'
'You have to take the blinders off to see'
A rare and dying species,A 110% real right wing Likud MK Danny Danon took a swing at Netanyahu on Sunday night and Netanyahu came back Monday night with a TKO.
Netanyahu goes to great lengths to get rid of troublemakers.
What a Likud/Kadima unity government means -LICAD
The death of the Israeli right wing under the charlatan Netanyahu.
Like so many,Caroline you are content with a fake and not the real thing.
He can bamboozle you with his treacherous, backstabbing attacks on the real right wing as he has done time and time again !
"Some on the right have voiced concerns that Netanyahu wants this coalition so he can reinstate negotiations with the Palestinians and withdraw from Judea and Samaria. Maybe. But it's hard for me to believe that Netanyahu will want to go full speed ahead with that. What would he stand to gain?"
That's a pretty naive question coming from one so seasoned in Israeli politics and the reality of a gradual but definitive surrender of Jewish rights and land in the territories over the last twenty years.
What would Netanyahu stand to gain? How about fulfillment of a quid pro quo with the Obama administration to support an Israeli strike on Iran in exchange for Netanyahu paving the way for a "contiguous" Palestinian state in Gaza, Judea and Samaria, and Jerusalem?
Let's not forget that great Jewish warrior, Ariel Sharon, and his grand bargain with George Bush in 2009 to destroy Jewish communities in Gaza in exchange for promised US commitments to the "Jewish state of Israel" with "secure and recognizable borders" and the "settling of Palestinian refugees in a Palestinian state rather than Israel".
With his acceptance of that deal (now all but formally reneged on by Obama), Sharon resembled a political hero, temporarily satiated the US and ravenous international community, and likely avoided prison.
Netanyahu looks for the same gains, with the addition of tacit, if not military, support for an Israeli attack on Iran.
Extraordinary threats require extraordinary alliances and often, extraordinary sacrifices.
Caroline, like many others I fear that we will not see Netanyahu's true agenda until it is too late to undo the damage. With the many conflicts in Israeli society today including the Tal law and destruction of what was once considered legal settlements, Kadima is definitely the last party I would have expected Bibi to form an alliance with, but perhaps his quest for power trumps all.
A must read article from an extremely reliable source on what Obama is planning to assure his 're-election'and why Israel's reliance on the U.S. will lead to a major catastrophe for Israel.
http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/46516
You can't trust evil people for anything,those who do always pay the ultimate price.
What does he stand to gain from destroying the communities of Yosh? The culmination of the establishment strategy to end the dati leumi demographic threat to their power by destroying the dati leumi communities, pushing the inhabitants into expellee camps and turning them into impoverished wards of the State, that's what!
To the public, it will be presented as a "grand bargain" or "quid-pro-quo with Obama" or some such. But the reality is that the aim always was and always will be the destruction of the dati leumi. Bibi can end the Iran threat permanently in 15 minutes, with or without American support. He has so far failed to do so because he does not desire to end it. He needs it in order to destroy his real enemies -- those pesky folks with kippot and peyot and long skirts who just keep having children and demanding a Jewish State!
Marcel, it looks like conspiracy fodder material (BHO not American again?).
Caroline Glick, is giving a new breath of life to the party that brought the Gaza disengagement and the travesty of the Second Lebanon war really worth the cost of dealing with Tal and facing off Meir Dagan? I too don't believe Bibi is going to tackle Iran, with or without his new company.
It looks very much like the seductions of a lasting legacy and the removal of the hindrances of the parties supporting the settlers.
I also worry that Obama leaned on Kadima with promises of help and support in the future and that gives Obama eyes and ears inside Israel's center of power. Also they can turn on Netanyahu when he needs them most, can leak stories to the press etc. All of a sudden they make an offer to Bibi he can't refuse? It has come to my attention that Obama has interfered in another nation's elections before, and as usual, when he chooses to surround himself with people, he makes bad choices. Mark Hyman Washington Post article from 2008 http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/12/obamas-kenya-ghosts/
Also, Abbas all of a sudden "ready to talk" is part of Obama's manipulation, IMHO.
Sorry but as I see it,there can be no common ground with a Palestinian state next to Israel ! surely Gaza is the prime example of trying to pacify terrorists.
charles soper
I remember some years ago how you tried to get Caroline to censor certain religious comments.
You crawled back into the ether for some time after your failure to control and manipulate the comments.
You left out the fact that the Birth Certificate he provided recently was proven to be a fraud by Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio whom the gangster government and media have attacked and demonized in attempt to silence him ?
Are you with the criminal gang ?
You left out the part about how the media worked so successfully to cover up the facts on Obama's real place of birth,his radical roots along with any high school or college papers or grades,and on and on.
The biggest cover up in media history and you go along with their dark and devious program.
________________________________
Dis-information Specialists Handbook
Lesson 1
Find a questionable point of contention to discredit any report that exposes the agenda of
the globalist masters while at the same time acting as a 'friend' of your target audience.
That way your 'smear' discredit's the entire piece with a gullible and easily led by the nose audience.
Lesson 2
While the majority are very easy to deceive,try to be a crafty as possible and not so predictable and expose your agenda too quickly.
Caroline-- Any idea, now that Benzion Zt"l has passed, how that will affect Bibi? I cant help but wonder whether it will make him tend to be more Zionist in honor of him or less Zionist, now he wont disapoint him...
Any thoughts?
Just read this post by Daniel Greenfield and thought you might find it an interesting assessment of the Netanyahu/Mofaz deal
http://digg.com/newsbar/Worldnews/sultan_knish_bibi_the_survivor