October 4, 2011, 3:32 AM
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To the naked eye, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be moving from strength to strength. Erdogan was welcomed as a hero on his recent trip to Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. The Arabs embraced him as the new face of the war against Israel.
The Obama administration celebrates Turkey as a paragon of Islamic democracy. The Obama administration cannot thank Erdogan enough for his recent decision to permit NATO to station the US X-Band missile shield on its territory. The US is following Turkey's lead in contending with Syrian President Bashar Assad's massacre of his people.
And according to Erdogan, the Obama administration is looking into ways to leave its Predator and Reaper UAVs with the Turkish military when US forces depart Iraq in the coming months. Turkey requires the drones to facilitate its war against the Kurds in Iraq and eastern Anatolia. The Obama administration also just agreed to provide Turkey with three Super Cobra attack helicopters.
Despite its apparent abandonment of Iran's Syrian client Assad, Turkey's onslaught against the Kurds has enabled it to maintain its strategic alliance with Iran. Last month Erdogan announced that the Turkish and Iranian militaries are cooperating in intelligence sharing and gearing up to escalate their joint operations against the Kurds in Iraq.
Erdogan is probably the only world leader that conducted prolonged friendly meetings with both Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and US President Barak Obama at the UN last month.
Then there are the Balkans. After winning his third national election in June, Erdogan dispatched his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Kosovo, Bosnia and Romania to conduct what the Turks referred to as "mosque diplomacy."
Erdogan's government has been lavishing aid on Bosnia for several years and is promoting itself as a neo-Ottoman guardian of the former Ottoman possessions.
EVEN ERDOGAN'S threats of war seem to be paying off. His attacks on Israel have won him respect and admiration throughout the Arab world. His threats against Cyprus's exploration of offshore natural gas fields caused Cypriot President Demetris Christofias to announce at the UN that Cyprus will share the revenues generated by its natural gas with Turkish occupied northern Cyprus.
Christofias said Cyprus would do so even in the absence of a unification agreement with its illegally occupied Turkish north. Moreover, due to Turkish pressure, Cyprus has agreed to intensify reunification talks with the Turkish puppet government in the northern half of the island. Those talks were set to begin in Nicosia last Tuesday.
Then there is the Turkish economy.
On the face of it, it seems that Turkey's assertive foreign policy is facilitated by its impressive economic growth.
According to Turkey's statistics agency, the Turkish economy grew by 8.8 percent in the second quarter of the year - far outperforming expectations. Last year the Turkish economy grew by 9 percent. With this impressive data, Erdogan is able to make a seemingly credible case to the likes of Egypt that it can expect to be enriched by a strategic partnership with Turkey.
For Israelis, these achievements are a cause for uneasiness. With Turkey building itself into a regional powerhouse largely on the back of its outspoken belligerence towards Israel, many observers argue Israel must do everything it can to mend fences with Turkey. Israel simply cannot afford to have Turkey angry at it, they claim.
If Turkey's position was as strong as the conventional wisdom claims, then maybe these commentators and politicians would have a point. But Turkey's actual situation is very different from its surface image.
Turkey's aggressive, peripatetic foreign policy is earning Ankara few friends.
Erdogan's threat to freeze Turkish-EU relations if the EU goes ahead as planned and transfers its rotating presidency to Cyprus next July has backfired.
European leaders wasted no time in angrily dismissing and rejecting Erdogan's threat. So too, Germany and France have been loudly critical of Turkey's belligerence towards Israel.
Then there is Cyprus. Turkey's ever escalating threats to attack Cyprus's natural gas project have angered both the EU and Russia. The EU is angry because as an EU member state, Cypriot gas will eventually benefit consumers throughout the EU, who are currently beholden to Russian suppliers and Turkish pipelines.
Russia itself has announced it will defend Cyprus against Turkish threats.
Russia is annoyed by Turkish courtship of the Balkan states. It sees no reason to allow Turkey to throw its weight around in Cyprus. Doing so successfully will only strengthen Ankara's appeal in the Balkans and among the Turkic minorities in Russia.
THIS BRINGS us to the Muslim world. Despite Erdogan's professions of friendship with Iran, it is far from clear that their alliance is as smooth as he presents it. The Iranians are concerned about Turkish ascendance in the Middle East and angry at Turkey for threatening Syria.
In truth if Assad is able to ride out the current storm and remain in power, he will owe his survival in no small measure to Turkey. Since the riots broke out in the spring, Turkey has restrained Washington from taking any concerted steps to overthrow the Syrian dictator. Had it not been for Erdogan's success in containing the US, it is possible the US and Europe might have acted swiftly to support the opposition.
But whether he stays in power or is overthrown, it is doubtful that Assad will feel any gratitude towards Erdogan. Rather, Assad will likely blame Erdogan for betraying him. And if Assad is toppled, the Kurds of Syria could easily forge alliances with their brethren in Turkey, Iraq and Iran, to Turkey's strategic detriment.
Since former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in February, Turkey has been making a concerted effort to build an alliance with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Ankara has reportedly transferred millions of dollars in aid to the Islamic group, and of course continues to support Hamas as well as Hizbullah.
Yet for all of his efforts on the Muslim Brotherhood's behalf, the Brotherhood issued a sharp rebuke of Erdogan during his visit to Egypt. Brotherhood leader Essam el-Arian rejected Erdogan's call for Egypt to adopt the Turkish model of Islamic democracy as too secular for Egypt.
As for the Turkish economy, a closer analysis of its financial data indicates that Turkey's expansive growth is the result of a credit bubble that is about to burst. According to a Citicorp analyst quoted in The Wall Street Journal, domestic demand accounts for all of Turkey's economic growth.
This domestic demand in turn owes to essentially free loans the government showered on the public in the lead-up to the June elections. The loans are financed by government borrowing abroad.
Turkey's current accounts deficit stands at nearly 9 percent of GDP. Greece is engulfed in a debt crisis with a current accounts deficit of 10 percent.
Analysts project that Turkey's deficit will eclipse Greece's within the year. And whereas the EU may end up bailing Greece out of its debt crisis, Turkey has no one to bail it out of its own debt crisis. Consequently, Turkey's entire economic house of cards is likely to come crashing down very rapidly.
It is hard to understand why Erdogan is acting as he is given the poor hand he is holding. It is possible that he is crazy.
It is possible that he is so insulated from criticism that he is unaware of Turkey's economic realities or of the consequences of his aggressive behavior.
It is possible that he is hoping to combine a foreign policy crisis with Turkey's oncoming economic crisis in order to blame the latter on the former.
And it is possible that he believes that US backing gives him immunity to the consequences of his actions.
No matter what stands behind Turkey's actions, it is clear Ankara has overplayed its hand. Its threats against Israel and Cyprus are hollow. Its hopes to be a regional power are faltering.
The only thing Israel really needs to be concerned about is the US's continued insistence that Turkey is a model ally in the Islamic world. More than anything else, it is US support for Turkey that makes Erdogan a threat to the Jewish state and to the region.
Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.
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'More than anything else, it is US support for Turkey that makes Erdogan a threat to the Jewish state and to the region.'
The constant drumbeat of US restraint on Israel has had it's desired effect.
The Turks and fellow Muslim nations see Israel as weak and so does everyone else.
All Egypt and Turkey have to do is huff and puff and the new neutered Israel shakes and trembles with doubt and fear.
That is the only thing the peace process has delivered for Israel.
REGIONAL WEAKNESS ,RETREAT AND A NEVER ENDING STREAM OF APPEASEMENT.
All Israeli bad policy and failures of the first magnitude.
What a different place it would be today if Israel had finished the job and defeated Hizbollah and Hamas instead of listening to President Bush and Secretary Rice.
Iran would have been shamed and branded the loser in the region.
Turkey would not be so bellicose with a regional giant killer so close by.
Israel's appeasement and weakness and never ending restraint under the direction and constant interference and pressure of her false ally the US has made the Middle East a much more dangerous place than it has ever been.
So much for Israel's incredible stupidity and blind faith in putting all of her eggs in the America's fakepeace basket.
I foresaw many years ago that Turkey was going to transform itself into Israels arch enemy. You may call it prescient, I call it an understanding of Biblical prophesy. Indeed the entire shaking up in the Arab world is merely shaking itself up and re-aligning itself for the inevitable impending attack on Israel.
The world is aligning itself up against Israel, God and her Messiah. Indeed anti-semitism is merely a reflection of the worlds hatred for God projected onto Gods people. In this epic struggle the True Church, Israel and Jewry are going to be persecuted and massacred until the final redemption arrives.
"More than anything else, it is US support for Turkey that makes Erdogan a threat to the Jewish state and to the region." And as with every other issue facing Israel and threatening its future, this boils down to the Jewish vote in the upcoming US elections. One can only hope Israel's brethren in the States wise up quickly and vote Republican, despite all the massive brainwashing of them by both American and Israeli media.
There is no question that Israel has been putting her trust in the wrong people. The US has proven to be a "friend" but only with outrageous conditions attached. Turkey has lost no time in condemning Israel for every action both real and imagined in keeping with her alliance with radical Islam. Israel's treaty with Egypt is all but gone since Egypt's takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. Yet, at this time, the undercurrent among Arab nations in the Middle East is generally one of instability. Now would be the perfect time for Israel to get off her appeasement and complacency bandwagons and assert herself once again. It's time for the infighting in the government to stop. The Jewish state must survive stronger than ever and with HaShem's help we can do it.
Tnx for the article Caroline !
First. The world is facing a long economic stagnation ... caused by the unbalance between usher and innovative capitalism and thus by the inevitable high oil price. Oil is locked with the US dollar, locked with US etc hydro-carbon based automobile industry, locked with the US-Anglo military & arms complex ... & locked with islam.
Only energy generation for half of the current price will get the world out of the recession ... but than all these economic and ideological monopolies must be crushed. (Western capitalism cannot war itself out of the recession with an asymmetric war hahaha. Lets terra form Mars instead ! )
Second. Today there are three world "powers" entangled in an economic and supremacist cold war.
1. The Free western secular and/or Christian world.
2. The abject islamic world of the OIC and
3. foreign policy capitalist and interior communist economy mafia triad China.
In South Africa - which has China on the first place both in import as in export - the white minority (seeking for an Independent Afrikaner nation) http://praag.co.uk/ is faced with the terror of China seeking land for exclusive food production by inciting to heinous animalistic murder on 6.000 Afrikaner Boers and 200.000 Afrikaner ! by Julius Malema (Forbes) ... and Desmond Tutu’s doctrine of “christian nazism” and Zionist Apartheid...
Third. I think there are three islamic forces.
1. US-Saudi, Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda sunnites,
2. Iran's Hezbollah, Hamas etc sjiites and
3. Osman atavism.
But islam is not a religion but in religion covered politico-military doctrine.
Islam - like former communism - must be locked in an iron curtain.
I think the Jerusalem mosque of hatred must be removed.
The Kurdish people in Turkey, Syria and Iraq must be supported in their right for self determination.
Constantinopel must be freed from islam.
Iran's atom bomb project must be destroyed...
Erdogan: Who put the dog in Erdogan?
Assad: Who put the ass in Assad?
Mubaruk: Who put the moo in Mubaruk?
Achmadejahd: Who put the mad in Achmadejahd?
Who who..who who..who who..who who
...its da primitive people they ruuuule!
(sung to your fave tune)
Regarding the reason Erdogan is playing his weak hand so strongly... it is because the only thing he needs for it to work is for one or more countries to act as though it might work.
I am not enough of a student of history to quote the details, but I know that Hitler's Germany was not strong when he threatened war and "Europe" (Neville Chamberlain) rewarded him with Sudetenland. That in turn gave him the power to fuel his next effort. While I have read other sources that confirm Turkey's looming economic crisis, I do not underestimate the ability of inept and weak statesmen to yield undeserved victories to Erdogan and thereby empower and enable a monster.
It sounds like the "Three Terrors" are living out the song as written for Latma. I'm sorry for US support of Turkey against the Kurds. It makes no sense to me as it does nothing to stabilize the situation in Iraq. I guess Obama still calls that Bush's fault. America wouldn't have those UAV's in the first place if not for Israeli technology. It is no surprise this is the same administration that seizes guns from Americans to arm Mexican drug lords and border coyotes. The illegal alien in the White House is as anti American as he is anti Israel. He is living in a bigger house of cards than Erdogan.
As we draw closer to the end of the sixth prophetic day we see sadly again the world turning against the Lord's people. I hope this is just the powers of darkness that be and not the general population. HaMeshiach is closer than before too. When the Lion comes anyone who stands against the Lord or His Israel will stand no more. It will be the seventh day. The Lion will lay with the Lamb and we will have peace on earth, good will to man. Shabbot Shalom! Shana tova Caroline. May your name too be secured.
Erdogan: Israel is a nuclear threat in the Mideast (Jpost)
There is a way forward on the nuclear issue. Israel uses plausible deniability to say that it doesn't have nukes when everyone knows it does. Iran is playing games at the moment. The American enrichment offer explained by Charles Ferguson at FAS is part of the current intrigue. Some trust beacons are being put out there to test the waters. The nuclear question is a two faced genie. Nuclear power is a boon for humankind. Nuclear weapons need to be phased out over the next few decades. They are a by-product of certain past geo-political moves. Like nine poker players all with various stacks returning dangerous chips to the house one by one, the risk needs to be reduced over time and in a way that builds trust. A core group of people could oversee and facilitate this process. Call it the "Committee to Oversee the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons by 2030." I'm sure some clever person can come up with an appropriate acronym.
The problem with Time Magazine and other similar journals in today's interconnected age is that one week is a very long time in geopolitics. The geometries can change very quickly. Especially so with various leader's mindsets. Prime Minister Erdogan has made quite a few public statements over the past two weeks. His comments have varied in tone quite remarkably from his Tripoli statements to the discussions he had with Charlie Rose on Bloomberg. He may appear to be all over the place but I think he is trying to satisfy various audiences all at the same time. It is not an easy job being the leader of a vast nation like Turkey and also having a role in the wider international community. I do believe his general demeanor towards Israel has calmed down a lot over the past few weeks. The embers of enmity in the region should not be stoked by anyone at the moment. Especially the leaders of various nations.
Marcel, the Nasser-like quality of Erdogan's behavior, and his cheering on of Egypt on the opposite side, UAR-style, looks very much like the Arab hysteria before June '67. If I notice, I am sure that Israel's leadership sees some parallels as well.
The age of appeasement as we have seen since Camp David will soon hit the wall. It's plain to see how counterproductive such tactics are - the lessons of history keep reminding us over and over again the folly and illusion of that policy.
The IDF is paying attention as well and my gut feeling is that Israel's defense forces will soon be required to play for keeps again. No more appeasement when that happens.
"Analysts project that Turkey’s deficit will eclipse Greece’s within the year. And whereas the EU may end up bailing Greece out of its debt crisis, Turkey has no one to bail it out of its own debt crisis."
You shall be a writer in a Turkish Newspaper.
Turkey has bad relationships with Israel now and also has bad relation ships with Iran, Syria and most of the European Countries.
Turkey does not have so much military power, economic power etc...
So who do you think supports Erdogan. Some countries or some powers shall help him otherwise he would not be able to talk like this.
What or Who is helping Turkey? Do you have any guess?
Too many people are blaming the wrong party here, Israel; for not being more proactive. While I agree with the sentiment, let me inject a reminder. It is the fault of our American Jewish Community. With the exception of The ZOA and few others. American Jewish organizations give to Israel with one hand and take back with the other. In fact it is more like they use Israel as a cause celebre to gain contributions from the willfully obtuse or ignorant unwitting seniors and busy middle class working stiffs and others. Then they condition the aid on Israeli support for leftist causes and support for leftist control of The Israeli Supreme court and so called pro peace initiatives,including glowing approval of intermarriage, while keeping a huge chunk of the money for themselves, which they rationalize as covering their costs, which ends up being executive bonuses, while they lay off their rank and file Jewish employees in favor of keeping the mercenary Philipinos on salary.It is shocking to think of leaders in our Jewish Community giving money to Obama and asking him to pressure Israel into making suicidal one sided concessions, after all such efforts backfired. It makes my blood boil. Especially when one sees the effect of this pressure and the absolute abject failure of the concessions to induce any compromises from The so called "Palestinians". Obviously this puts Israel in an impossible predicament.
Israel has done well,it has put off the end of the day for as long as it could. Let me declare, this is the end of the day!
Well, one big problem has been, I'm sorry to say, The American Jewish Community's support for the creation of a "Palestinian State". In 2009, it was 49%, 2010; 48% and now; 38%. After all that has happened in the past two years, only 5% of it's supporters have changed their minds. This support by the American Jewish Community for "Palestine" is really an endorsement of the conditions which would bring about Israel's demise. Maybe not immediately, but let us just say, real real soon. Anyone who has any intelligence at all knows it cannot work except to destroy Israel in a bloody Holocost.
Thank you for this article, which is a precious source of information, like all your writings.
An Italian reader
The US is Israels friend. But the US has its own interests and they come first. America never has and never will put boots on the Ground for Israel.
Israel should Place its Faith in G_D Not in America, they would be better served!
America is like standing next to an Elephant in a blowing rain storm. The Elephant keeps the wind and rain from blowing on you but you have no Idea which way the elephant may go or what direction he may turn, If there is a lightning strike he may bolt and leave you standing alone in a thunderstorm.