September 13, 2011, 4:19 AM
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We are able to consider the lessons of the weekend's mob assault on the Israeli embassy in Cairo because the six Israeli security officers who were on the brink of being slaughtered were rescued at the last moment and spirited out of the country. If the Egyptian commandos hadn't arrived on the scene at the last moment, the situation would have been too explosive for a sober-minded assessment of the rapidly deteriorating situation with our neighbor to the south.
Any assessment of the weekend's events must begin by recounting a few key aspects of the assault. First, this was the second mob attack on the embassy in so many weeks. During the first assault, an Egyptian rioter scaled the 20-story building where the embassy is housed, tore down the Israeli flag, and threw it to the frenzied mob below which swiftly burned it. Rather than being arrested for the crime of assaulting a foreign embassy, the rioter was embraced as a hero by Egypt's military regime. The governor of Giza awarded him an apartment and a job.
Second, for six hours after the assault on the embassy began on Friday evening, Israel's leaders tried desperately to contact the leaders of the Egyptian military junta to request their intercession on behalf of the trapped security officers.
Field Marshal Muhammad Tantawi refused to speak with either Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
Third, Egyptians authorities refused to intervene to save the lives of the Israeli security officers until after the Americans intervened directly on their behalf.
That is, Israel's entreaties, and Egypt's international legal obligations were insufficient to move the Egyptian authorities to act to save the embassy personnel from the mob. Only the apparent threat of direct US action against Egypt convinced them to act.
The behavior of the Egyptian mob and military junta alike served as a wake-up call for two key constituencies.
Until last weekend, both the Israeli Left and the US foreign policy establishment believed the situation in Egypt was not significantly worse than it had been under deposed president Hosni Mubarak.
Most Israelis awoke to the fact that Israel's border with Egypt is no longer a peaceful one three weeks ago. After the Egyptian-Palestinian terror cell infiltrated Israel from Sinai on August 18 and massacred eight Israelis on the highway to Eilat, most Israelis recognized that relations with Egypt had been ruptured.
But until the weekend, Israel's Left insisted there was a distinction between the lawless Sinai and the more orderly situation in Cairo. They argued that all that was needed to calm the situation in Sinai was for the military junta to assert its authority in Sinai as it does in the rest of Egypt. Hence, the Left argued that it is in Israel's interest to amend the peace treaty and allow the Egyptian military to remilitarize the Sinai.
Since the weekend, these claims have been notably absent from the discourse. After the Egyptian military allowed the mob to take over the embassy, residual leftist faith in the junta's moderation and commitment to the peace with Israel is swiftly evaporating.
As for the Americans, unlike Israel, American foreign policy hands from across the conservative-liberal divide supported the mob in Tahrir Square that called for Mubarak's overthrow. The Americans hailed Mubarak's demise as a triumph of liberal democratic forces in the Arab world. But in the aftermath of the weekend's assault on the embassy, voices from across the political spectrum in the US are calling for a reassessment of US relations with Egypt.
For his part, Obama's willingness to intervene on behalf of the besieged security guards at the embassy was probably not divorced from his assessment of the political fallout likely to ensue from the slaughter of Israeli embassy guards by the Egyptian mob.
In such an event, the American public would immediately equate Obama's support for the "democratic, revolutionary" mob against longstanding US ally Mubarak with his predecessor Jimmy Carter's support for the "democratic, revolutionary" Iranian mob against the US-allied Shah of Iran in 1979.
The fact that Obama recognizes the political significance of the developments in Egypt signals that he too may be willing to consider adopting a different policy towards Egypt in the months to come.
All of this is important.
In the absence of a reassessment of the situation in Egypt by the Israeli Left and the American policy establishment alike, the chance of anyone adopting rational policies towards the strongest Arab state would remain small.
Any rational policy must be based on an accurate assessment of the dynamics of the post- Mubarak political situation. Specifically, is the junta part of the mob or is it simply unable or unwilling to manage it?
Apparently it is a bit of both.
Like its treatment of the rioter who tore the Israeli flag from the embassy building two weeks ago, the regime's arrest in June of the dual Israeli- American citizen ` on trumped-up espionage charges is an example of the junta acting as part of the mob.
On the other hand, the regime's decision to try Mubarak and his sons in contravention of Tantawi's solemn pledge to Mubarak is an indication that Tantawi and his generals are led by the mob.
As for Grapel - and to a lesser degree Mubarak - the US's ultimate success in forcing the junta to rescue the Israelis trapped at the embassy demonstrates that the US still has significant leverage against Egypt. When it is sufficiently adamant, Washington can force the junta change its behavior.
It is not clear how much this leverage is dependent on continued US financial and military assistance to Egypt. Obviously, an assessment of its significance should guide any US consideration of reducing or cutting off that aid.
As for Israel, the mob's ability to determine the course of events in Egypt and the junta's refusal to stand up to the mob on Israel's behalf is a strong indication that the peace treaty is doomed.
After the junta stood back and allowed the mob to storm the embassy, it is impossible to believe the junta will defy the mob's demand to abrogate the treaty.
The fact that the treaty is doomed doesn't mean that Israel will immediately find itself at war with Egypt - although the prospect can no longer be ruled out. The US's continued leverage against the regime - like NATO's leverage against Turkey - may very well convince the Egyptians to maintain a ceasefire with Israel.
On the other hand, US leverage may end after November's elections. The Muslim Brotherhood and its allies are expected to win a parliamentary majority and the presidency.
Given the explosiveness of the situation, it is imperative that the US not repeat its rush to action from January where without considering the consequences of its actions, Washington hurriedly sided with the Tahrir Square mob against Mubarak. The US shouldn't support elections or oppose them. It shouldn't cut off aid or increase it. It shouldn't condemn the junta or embrace it.
The Americans should simply monitor the situation and prepare for all contingencies.
As for Israel, it must prepare for the possibility of war. It must increase the size of the IDF by adding a division to the Southern Command. It must train for desert warfare. It must expand the Navy.
Thankfully, all Israeli personnel were safely evacuated from Cairo. But this happy circumstance must not blind anyone to the dangers mounting in Egypt.
Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.
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“Allahu Akbar!”Egypt, Turkey, one fist!”
This was the chant to Turkeys Erdogan upon his arrival in Cairo Monday.We know who the fist is aimed at.
The Muslim leader who threatens Israel the most wins the prize from the mob, something Erdogan has learned.
Tantawi and the Egyptian junta know they are marked for the Hosni treatment if the mob perceives they are defending Israel.
The same applies to Abdullah of Jordan this Thursday.
If he is too friendly towards Israel and her Amman embassy he knows his days are numbered and the King wants to survive so he will stir up the bloodthirsty crowds also and blame and attack the chosen scapegoat of the Islamic world.
The Arab,Islamic mob have determined that Israel is to blame for everything and that they will have their mob justice no matter what.
Israel needs to prepare for a visit from the mob.
As Jonathan and the other guards trapped in the embasssy learned, time is an asset Israel no longer has after wasting so much of it on a worthless Road Map farce.
Israel does not have the luxury of time to rebuild a southern command.The mobs and the jihad rabble and the rabid dogs of allah are not going to wait.
The truth is that IDF General Eisenberg was right and the dreamers in command are not facing reality.
This next war will be nuclear.
After the missiles of Syria,Iran,Lebanon and Hamas fall on Israel's cities they will have no choice but to end this attack permanently,that is if never again really means never again.
Caroline, as always excellent and well defined, but it certainly does leave us with some disquieting thoughts. How will having had to ask the US for help affect the peace process with the Palestinians? What will be considered payback and you can be assured there will be. That the peace treaty with Egypt is all but over is more likely than not a certainty, but will the fight be ours alone or will we still have the US as an ally. All this remains to be seen, but we must tread cautiously as Jewish lives and ultimately the future of the Jewish homeland are at stake. May we continue to see G-d's mercy.
Love you to pieces Caroline but you know that Obama Hates Israel and probably Jews in general. But he needs them for the upcoming election and so he does what is in HIS, and his ideology's best interests.
American Jews will no doubt be grateful and reward him accordingly, only to learn later to their sorrow, that he really is everything they always feared. Of course it will be too late then. If his poll numbers were better, he wouldn't have lifted a finger and you can bet your last shekel, that he will harm her (Israel) anyway he can, as soon as he can and it doesn't cost him. He is the Marxist and probably Muslim that he is. He's programed to be what he is and to act as he acts, and none of it is by accident.
Good article but bad timing. Why give Obama credit, deserved, on the same day as the special election in NY 9th Dist. where Obama Israel policy is the issue?
"Until last weekend [the assault on the Israeli embassy in Cairo], both the Israeli Left and the US foreign policy establishment believed the situation in Egypt was not significantly worse than it had been under deposed president Hosni Mubarak."
As I see it, the Israeli Left may well be the greatest threat that Israel faces, because they are inside the citadel. A fifth column if you will.
"As I see it, the Israeli Left may well be the greatest threat that Israel faces, because they are inside the citadel. A fifth column if you will."
They are by far the greatest threat Israel faces; "we have met the enemy and he is us"
The Israeli left is suicidal. No other explanation is sufficient to explain a willingness to allow Egypt to remilitarize the Sinai.
Caroline's assessment would seem to be spot on. Events in the ME are in turmoil and there are new, unstable elements brewing-Turkey, Egypt, maybe Jordan...Israel could well find itself surrounded by many new enemies. I only hope that her leaders are seriously looking at the situation. As I said before, it could very well be "back to Mitla", and there could be a replay of 1967, only on a more dangerous scale.
I think if war does break out, Israel must finish the job. Carpet bombing is in order, as is indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas. It is high time the Israelis claim their heritage, and respond as Vespasian treated them. The sad fact is for decades the Arabs have been allowed to wage war against Israel without feeling any of the pain that goes along with real war. Time to do to the Arabs what the Allies did to the Germans and Japanese - make them pay for their hatred with their children's lives. It is the way of war.
obama destroyed israeli-egyptian peace with obama's embrace of mb and obama's demand that mubarak must go. obama's foreign policy disaster is equal to obama's domestic disaster for usa.
Isreal cannot afford to not take seriously the recent signs you discuss. The acts that harm and kill are simplistic, but their significance can be much worse. Everyone is demanding apologys again for Isreal defending herself. History shows the demands are a ruse. Those of us with long memories are alarmed by the actions of the student groups. It speaks well of a society that youth can so securely work for improvements(and when there is time, have action taken). Maybe they will not like the actions Isreal has to take to protect herself. Better to be unhappy and alive than happy and dead. Keep writing.
Caroline,
I just found your website recently and have been reading it often. Wow, lots of information that the press misses out on. Thank you for standing with Israel and against the hatred that the Islamic extermists vent. People need to realize there is nothing that will make these terrorists like Israel or Jews. Jews need to vote against these liberal, compromising Democrats... Shalom!