August 18, 2011, 4:14 PM
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Israeli military preparedness follows a depressing pattern. The IDF does not change its assessments of the strategic environment until Israeli blood runs in the streets.
In Judea and Samaria, from 1994 through 2000, the army closed its eyes to the Palestinian security forces' open, warm and mutually supportive ties to terror groups.
The military only began to reconsider its assessment of the US- and European-trained and Israeli-armed Palestinian forces after Border Police Cpl. Mahdat Youssef bled to death at Joseph's Tomb in October 2000. Youssef died because the Palestinian security chiefs on whom Israel had relied for cooperation refused to coordinate the evacuation of the wounded policeman.
Youssef was wounded when a Palestinian mob, supported by Palestinian security forces, attacked the sacred Jewish shrine. They shot at worshipers and the IDF soldiers who were stationed at Joseph's Tomb in accordance with the agreements Israel has signed with the Palestinians.
In Lebanon, the IDF only reconsidered its policy of ignoring Hezbollah's massive arms build-up in the south after the Shi'ite group launched its war against Israel in July 2006.
In Gaza, the IDF only reconsidered its willingness to allow Hamas to massively arm itself with missiles and rockets after the terror group running the Strip massively escalated the scale of its missile war against Israel in December 2008.
It is to be hoped that Thursday's sophisticated, deadly, multi-pronged, combined arms assault by as yet unidentified enemy forces along the border with Egypt will suffice to force the IDF to alter its view of Egypt.
By Thursday afternoon, seven Israelis had been killed and 26 had been wounded by unidentified attackers who entered Israel from Egyptian-ruled Sinai and staged a four-pronged attack. The attack included two assaults on civilian passenger buses and private cars. The assailants used automatic rifles in the first attack, and rifles as well as either anti-tank missiles or rocket-propelled grenades in the second attack.
The assault also involved the use of missiles and roadside bombs against an IDF border patrol, and open combat between the attackers and police SWAT teams.
There can be little doubt of the sophisticated planning and training required to carry out this attack. The competence of the assailants indicates that their organizations are highly professional, well-trained and in possession of accurate intelligence about Israeli civilian traffic and military operations along the border with Egypt.
Without the benefit of surprise, Thursday's attackers will be hard pressed to maintain their offensive in the coming days. But the possibility that the assault was just the opening round of a new irregular war emanating from Sinai cannot be ruled out. Unfortunately, due to the IDF's institutional opposition to confronting emerging threats before they become deadly, Israel faces the prospect of escalated aggression from Sinai with no clear strategy for contending with the enemy actors operating in the peninsula.
This enemy system includes Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, and al-Qaida-affiliated Islamic terror cells. It also includes the Egyptian military and security forces operating in the area, whose intentions towards Israel are at best unclear.
LIKE THE watershed events in Judea and Samaria, in Lebanon and in Gaza, Thursday's attack from Sinai did not come out of nowhere. It was a natural progression of the deterioration of the security situation in Sinai in recent months and years.
For more than a decade all the security trends in Sinai have been negative.
Sinai is populated mainly by Beduin. When Israel controlled Sinai from 1967 through 1981, the Beduin were willing to cooperate with Israel on both civil and military affairs. When Egypt took over in 1981, it punished the Beduin for their willingness to work with Israel. Perhaps as a consequence of this, perhaps owing more to regional trends emanating from Saudi Arabia, since the mid-1990s, the Sinai Beduin, like neighboring tribes in the Jordanian desert and, to a degree, their Israeli Beduin brethren, have been undergoing a process of Islamification as the loyalties of more and more tribes have been transferred to regional and global jihadist forces.
The first tangible indication of this came with the 2004 bombing of the Hilton Hotel in Taba.
That attack was followed by bombings in Sharm e-Sheikh and Dahab in 2005 and 2006. All the attacks were reportedly carried out by Beduin terror cells affiliated with al-Qaida.
Since the Palestinian terror war began in 2000, then-Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak did almost nothing to prevent massive arms smuggling by Palestinian terror groups through Sinai. The Palestinians - from Hamas, Fatah and Islamic Jihad - were assisted by Sinai Beduin as well as by the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah. Mubarak also did next to nothing to prevent human and drug trafficking from Sinai into Israel and Gaza.
Mubarak did, however, protect the Egyptian regime's control over Sinai by among other things sealing the official land border from Egypt to Gaza at Rafah, defending Egyptian police stations and other security installations and vital infrastructure such as the gas pipeline from attack. Forces from his Interior Ministry kept a firm grip on the Beduin tribes.
As bad and increasingly complex as the security situation was becoming in Sinai under Mubarak, it has drastically deteriorated since he was overthrown in February. Actually, the Egyptian government arguably lost control over Sinai while Mubarak was being overthrown, and until last weekend made no attempt to reassert its sovereign control over the area.
As the world media ecstatically reported on the photogenic anti-Mubarak protesters in Tahrir Square, almost no attention was paid to the insurgency unfolding in Sinai. Shortly after the protests began in Cairo in mid-January, Hamas sent forces over the border into Egyptian Rafah and El-Arish to attack police stations with rifles and RPGs. Hamas fighters reportedly went as far south as Suez. There they joined other terror forces in bombing and raiding the police station in the town that abuts the Suez Canal. In consortium with local elements, Hamas carried out the first of five bombings so far of Egypt's gas pipeline to Israel and Jordan.
In a sharp departure from Mubarak's policies, the ruling military junta opened Egypt's border with Gaza and so gave local and regional jihadists the ability to freely traverse the international border.
Hamas and its fellow terrorists have used this freedom not only to steeply expand the missile and personnel transfers to the Gaza Strip. They have also escalated their challenge to Egyptian regime control over Sinai.
Over the past several months, in addition to recurrent bombings of the gas pipeline, these forces have attacked police stations and the port at Nueiba. In the wake of their July 30 attack on El-Arish in which two policemen and three civilians were killed, jihadist cells distributed leaflets calling for the imposition of Islamic law on Sinai.
According to media reports, jihadists also took over many of the main highways in Sinai at the beginning of August.
THESE LATEST assaults and the open challenge the leaflets and road takeovers pose to Egyptian state authority caused the military to deploy two battalions of armored forces to Sinai last weekend.
The stated aim of their operation is to defeat the al-Qaida-affiliated jihadist cells operating in the peninsula. Since Egypt's peace treaty with Israel prohibits the deployment of Egyptian military forces to Sinai, the Egyptian military regime requested and received Israeli permission for the deployment.
It is unclear how effective the latest Egyptian military deployment had been until Thursday's cross-border attacks on Israel had been. What is clear enough is that Israel cannot expect to receive serious cooperation from the Egyptian military in combating the enemy forces emanating from Sinai. Indeed, at this point it is impossible to rule out the possibility that Egyptian military personnel participated in the murderous attacks.
Passengers in one of the civilian cars attacked by gunmen in the first stage of the operation told the media that their attackers were wearing Egyptian army uniforms.
Almost immediately after the attacks took place, Egyptian military authorities denied the attackers entered Israel from Sinai. These denials signaled that the Egyptian military government will not assist Israel in its efforts to defend itself against the rapidly escalating threats it now faces from Sinai.
And this is not surprising. Since it overthrew Mubarak, the ruling military junta has assiduously cultivated close ties with the politically ascendant Muslim Brotherhood.
Three days before the attack, the IDF announced that its 2012-2017 budget includes no increase in either force size or equipment levels. As one IDF official told Reuters, "Our current capabilities are sufficient for our foreseeable requirements, though we will be investing anew in training and improving rapid-response mobility to allow for more flexibility during emergencies."
Recently, Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz explained that the reason the IDF does not intend to change the training or size of the Southern Command, despite Egypt's increasing hostility towards Israel, is because Israel doesn't want to provoke Egypt by preparing for the worst. In the immediate aftermath of the attack, Defense Minister Ehud Barak was quick to ignore Egypt and point his finger at the usual suspects in Gaza.
While it is reasonable to assume the Palestinians were involved in the attack, it is unreasonable to assume that they are the only culprits. And given the deteriorating security situation in Sinai and Egypt's escalating hostility, it is madness to limit Israel's attention in the wake of the attack to Gaza.
What the attack shows is that Israel must prepare for the new strategic reality emerging in Egypt. True, it is early yet to predict how Egypt is going to behave in the coming years. But we do not need perfect information about the emerging strategic reality to prepare for it.
Israel's requirements are clear. We need to invest the necessary resources to fortify the 240-km. border with Egypt by completing the security fence.
We need to increase the Southern Command's force levels by at least one regular division, preferably an armored one. We need to equip the IDF with more tanks and other platforms designed for desert warfare. We need for the IDF to begin training in desert warfare for the first time in 30 years.
We need to drastically ramp up the quality of our intelligence about Egypt.
On Thursday, we were shown that although the revolution in Egypt was not about Israel, Israel will be its first foreign victim as the new Egypt rejects the former regime's peace with the Jewish state.
It is a bitter reality. But it is reality all the same and we need to contend with it, as the blood in our streets makes clear.
Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.
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I don't have any doubt that if the Egyptian Army were involved that it will be covered up by the Netanyahu Government.
They are more interested in illusions than reality.
The attack was Hamas's way of thanking Israel for the recent goodwill gestures to their terrorist enclave.
Was it a harsh response or powerfull as the P.M. said ?
No,almost no one believes their lies anymore.
It's interesting how they knew where the terrorist were hiding but only struck after the attack.
That's a bad sign which reveals the inordinate restraint Israel has allowed to limit it to a lose lose scenario.
The Hamas leadership did go into hiding immediately after Barak's forewarning but they should know by now that Washington's two favorite poodles are on a tigh leash.
Barak's idea of harsh is sending more undeserved aid to Hamastan,Gaza.
When he goes after Jewish settlers,they don't get any prior warnings.
The problem is not Egypt,Hamas,Fatah or Hezbollah but the present crop of quisling,appeasement and surrender driven leaders whose weak response today only aids and encourages Egypt and the the enemy.They can smell fear coming from the poodles and their 'harsh' bark did not impress them.
This will encourage more deadly attacks.
Hamas could have been taken care of long ago but the concept of defeating ones enemies has been lost to the shackled and restrained poodles in Jerusalem by their crafty,phony ally's false peace scheme.
Caroline, The IDF is hopeless. Their are still living off the glory 67. Unfortunately, I believe that a lot of blood will have to flow in Israeli streets before action is taken. Netanyahu's bombing of Gaza is a joke, just another version of round up the usual suspects.
It doesn't take much forsight to see that we will allow the gradual re-militarization of the Sinai by an increasingly hostile Egypt.
In the guise of re-establishing control in the Sinai, Egypt will ask our permission to keep adding forces in the Sinai & how can we refuse?
In any case, what I am not hearing in our media is that ceding the Sinai to Egypt was a major strategic blunder. As a matter of fact, my comments on the subject were censored at YNET.
Of course, ALL of our ''land for peace'' concessions proved to be blunders.
One more comment - it's been apparent to me for years that the IDF has become just another crappy Israeli bureaucracy, promotions based on the ''correct'' political opinions.
It doesn't take a genius to predict that we will be at war with Egypt sooner than we think.
who in Israel will listen to Caroline? I'm speechless at this act of war and the limp, pathetic response by the gov't. I'm not surprised at Ehud-he's positively worthless. Well..it's going to be an interesting year, with more attacks against Israel and more deaths, and ridiculous, tepid responses by Aluf Ganz. Personally, after this I'd make him Corporal Ganz, and boot Barak and Bibi out on their asses. And FYI, Israelis can forget about Schalit-he's worth more to the arabs as a victim on a string that they can dangle and slowly sap Israeli resolve. How in God's name did things reach this state? Israelis have become as impotent as the Euros.
Prayers for the victims.
Points to note as a follow up to what I wrote elsewhere nineteen hours ago.
(1) The State of Israel is doing as much as it can to ensure its security whilst seeking peace with its neighbours. The GDP of Gaza grew by 16.5% last year according to IMF figures, albeit off a low base. So anyone still questioning the legitimacy of the country is remiss. In the realm of national and international politics it is important to heed the Johnny Mercer Maxim. The State of Israel is not perfect by any means. No country is at this time on Planet Earth, but on any scale it is up there with the best of them.
(2) The southern border needs to be secured. (It is similar to the American/Mexican border in this regard.) It is the least contentious of any of Israel's borders. MK Ya'akov Katz has been right to push this point.
(3)The lockdown on Gaza and fleeing of the UN Representatives was understandable as the IDF and Shabbak had to work out if the terrorists were linked to Hamas, or if the orders came from there.
(4) As I said yesterday it looks like the perpetrators were Al Qaida linked infiltrators into the Sinai. The Israelis were aware of the problem and the Egyptian Army with assistance from the Israelis mounted a huge operation in the Sinai this week. Some may have slipped the dragnet and the operation was brought forward. Whether there was any link to Iran, Syria, Hizbullah etc. remains to be seen. I would not like to be in the place of any captured operative in the interrogation room right now. Further security co-operation with Egypt is required. As an example the pipeline sabotage of recent weeks benefits neither country.
(5) As Shabbak has reported incidents of suicide bombings, rocket attacks and other bloody incidents have been on a steady decline since 2007. As more trust develops between the various parties and more people heed the divine plan for the region things will continue to improve. Unfortunately this can be a process of two steps forward one steps back at times. It is vital to keep the forward momentum going no matter what. Like a tricky relationship that you know will evolve into a long lasting wonderful marriage sometimes obstacles appear.
(6) An attack like this could blow up the region. The Israelis and their allies need to project real strength yet be nuanced. Like hanging the Sword of Damocles over certain groups yet offering opportunities to shift behaviour. The Sefirot as a tool is useful.
(7) The peace process must continue. The Redemption, i.e. Counter-balancing of the forces of darkness by the energies of light is a process that unfolds over time. The GDP of the region of Israel; Judea and Samaria/The West Bank; Gaza; Syria; Jordan; Lebanon; Saudi Arabia and Egypt is $1.6 Trillion. This can easily grow by more than 5% p.a. over the next 38 years. The General Welfare involves : Safety; Shelter; Food; Water; Mobility; Work; Rest; Play; Communications; Energy Supplies etc. There need to be a command and control structure in place to oversee and facilitate this. Thus good managers are needed. Think how a good organisation, company or kingdom should run. This is where the Israelis come in. The number of security experts and S.W.O.T. assessors in Israel is very high. Obviously the USA, UK, France, Australia and other countries can contribute to this, but the Israelis are in the centre of the action thus they should be the ones who take the lead on certain things, such as philosophy, mission, strategy and tactics. The boxer will get advice from outside the ring and may have his favourite trainer but at the end of the day he is the one in the middle of the action who has to fight to stay standing. There must be clear job descriptions, boundaries and delineations for various agencies. Lines of communication must be open and orders followed. Call this idea an unfolding “Nation of Priests”.
(8)When such premeditated acts of sheer evil like this take place it is important to pay attention to a few things. Righteous anger must be allowed to manifest to action, like what has just transpired with the elimination of the terrorists. At the same time it is imperative to have faith in the fact that the universe is stable, ordered, benevolent and expansive. (I just remembered something I heard in 2002 about the Holocaust. When many of the people were being led to their deaths in the gas chambers they were saying out loud and in a clear voice that they still believed in Moshiach. What incredible faith in the face of absolute evil! If they could show such faith, can’t we if at least we have the gifts of some freedom, a roof over your head and some food in the fridge ? Sort of gets things in perspective doesn’t it ?)
(9) When evil or trouble strikes you have to keep bouncing back like those plastic clown punch bags with sand in the bottom. No matter how you try and knock them down they always bounce back up.
(10) It may be difficult to believe but violence is not innate. All acts of violence can be deconstructed. But when someone is so far down the insanity track it is better to put a bullet in their head.
(11) Facile academic arguments over the merits of Kethubos 111a, Satmar versus Zionist, which country is safer etc. are now moot. It is mid 2011/5771. We are all interconnected. No one is an island. You cannot escape the flux. If people think that they can just ignore what is going in the Holy Land right now and not worry about it, they are remiss. Sparks can set off wildfires. A fire can either burn, harm and maim or it can provide warmth, light and comfort. There are lots of sparks of potential now present.
(12) The world's attention is being drawn to the Holy Land for a reason. The rapture enthusiasts have just released a film "Jerusalem Countdown" which has garnered hundreds of thousands of views; Avazz the activist site has attracted more than 650,000 signatures on the Palestinian UN Statehood bid; Average monthly hits to Aish Ha Torah's Wall cam have risen by more than 30% in 2011 compared to a year ago; Tourist numbers to Ben Gurion Airport are up etc. etc. What does all this mean ? The divine timetable will trump all others.
(13) It is possible to hold many thoughts in one’s head and a range of emotions in one’s heart at the same time. Working out how to filter, prioritise and deal with them is the hallmark of wisdom.
Regardless of why these attacks were not prevented by Israel, Israeli civilians are NOT safe. Is that true? Yet Israelis seem more concerned today with their dream of turning Israel into a welfare state. (We're talking nuts here folks.) It is even more troubling when we think back as this gov't is made up of those of whom have made a career emphasizing Israel's security needs. This gov't did not have to bring labor in. Bibi wanted to bring Labor in. There is no one who poses a challenge to Bibi from the right. He has captured the center and as long as Israelis take to the streets to harp about their salaries, rather than their security, they will continue to die from well planned operations by commited cold blooded murderers. Is it a consolation that cottage cheese goes down a fraction of a shekel.
Netanyahu, I think is procratinating on the major operations for a variety of reasons, one being distrust of Obama. Obama won't come through like Richard Nixon did in 1973 or Truman in 1948. It will have to wait just a bit longer, but it will be soonish.
You make the situation brutally clear. A failure in planning and leadership, even the willingness to open your eyes to see the threat. People will die, and war will come.
Caroline, it is sad, no actually bordering on criminal that you have to point out what should have been so obvious to the Israeli defense leaders in light of recent affairs in Egypt and Gaza. Are Israeli leaders so worried about world opinion that from Netanyahu on down they are willing to jeopardize the future of the Jewish State and by extension Jews everywhere by practicing restraint? We are damned if we do retaliate and damned if we do nothing. Seems to me the answer is clear. Shabbat shalom and G-d bless you for your courage and strength. Am Yisrael needs more like you.
'As a matter of fact, my comments on the subject were censored at YNET.'
YNET keeps the propaganda channel from the enemy wide open and does not want them to be offended by the truth or having to read anything that shows love for Israel or strength.
Talkbacks that feed Jewish weakness,appeasement and surrender and turncoat Jews lauding the Muslim terrorists always have the floor wide open to them.
In a sane country this would be investigates as a treasonous offense and they would be hounded more than the Jewish home builders are.
YNET has great tolerance and love for the butcher of Jews clan and none for lovers of Israel.
They give them incredible freedom to bash and attack Israel while silencing the facts from the sane right.
Anyone with the Right view are severely restricted and too often censored.
Tokyo Rose would be impressed.
How Israel under a supposed right wing P.M. permits the enemy within to operate without restraint and always targets for abuse fellow Jews for settling is shameful.
I would guess that the God of Israel is not too happy with the present situation and is soon to shake tings up in a big way.
Thanks for this sober and informed report.
At some point, the current Egyptian authorities are going to have to start representing themselves in relation to aggression towards Israel coming out of Egypt. Trying to pass themselves off as unaware or not involved just isn't going to work forever.
Zionist Dr. Max Nordau once said that, Jews learn not from reason, but from catastrophes. This so true, when diaster happens then Israel responds.
The responsibility of this murderous act lies squarely on the shoulders of Obama. His meddling in the Middle East has inflamed about every situation that is contrary to the peace and existence of Israel. You can trace a direct line from Obama through the demise of Mubarak to the destabilization of yet another front that Israel must now content with. The sooner this man is out of office the better the world will be!
Secondly, it is practically overwhelming the number of existential situations that Israel must currently deal with, as well as, foresee. Not only the enemies without, such as the above; Israel must deal with the enemies within...the political left, the courts, the media. And yet, Israel maintains it's democratic government...
At what point does it suspend the government and opt for martial law? Israel may soon need to take draconian measures to deal with those seeking it's destruction.
The Associated Jewish Federation of Baltimore
accepted a $250,000 grant from George Soros'
Open Society Institute. None of my calls to
the Associated--to find out the facts, or to the similar left-wing Baltimore Jewish Council-- were returned. Glenn Beck is a great force for
good in this world; not least because he regularly comments on the dangers posed by Soros and his money.