February 22, 2011, 12:47 AM
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For better or worse, each passing day the Middle East is becoming more unstable. Regimes that have clung to power for decades are now being overthrown and threatened. Others are preemptively cracking down on their opponents or seeking to appease them.
While no one can say with certainty what the future will bring to the radically altered Middle Eastern landscape, it is becoming increasingly apparent that US influence over events here will be dramatically diminished.
This assessment is based on the widespread view that the Obama administration has failed to articulate a coherent policy for contending with the rising populist tides.
Last Friday's UN Security Council vote was a case in point. On the one hand, the US vetoed a Lebanese-sponsored resolution that criminalized Israel's policy of permitting Jews to exercise their property rights in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria. On the other, after vetoing the resolution, US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned their own actions and explained why what they did was wrong.
As Rice put it in her explanation of the vote: "We reject in the strongest terms the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlement activity. For more than four decades, Israeli settlement activity in territories occupied in 1967 has undermined Israel's security and corroded hopes for peace and stability in the region. Continued settlement activity violates Israel's international commitments, devastates trust between the parties, and threatens the prospects for peace....
"While we agree with our fellow Council members - and indeed, with the wider world - about the folly and illegitimacy of continued Israeli settlement activity, we think it unwise for this Council to attempt to resolve the core issues that divide Israelis and Palestinians. We therefore regrettably have opposed this draft resolution."
It is important at the outset to point out that Rice's claims are either wrong or debatable. Israel has not committed itself to barring Jews from exercising property rights in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria. Permitting Jewish construction in these areas does not violate Israel's international commitments.
Moreover, there is no firm international legal basis for declaring Jewish neighborhoods and villages in these areas illegal.
It is far from clear that Jewish neighborhoods, cities and villages in these areas harm prospects for peace or undermine trust between Israelis and Arabs. Jews built far more homes back when Israel was signing agreements with the Palestinians.
Finally, it is far easier to form a coherent argument explaining how these communities strengthen Israel's security than an argument that they endanger it.
BUT BEYOND the basic falseness of Rice's statement, her condemnation of her own vote to veto the resolution, and Clinton's similar statements, serve to send a series of messages to the states in the region that are devastating to America's regional posture.
Friday's Security Council vote marked a new peak in the Fatah-controlled, US-sponsored Palestinian Authority's political war against Israel. The war's aim is to delegitimize the Jewish state in order to foment its collapse on the model of apartheid South Africa.
To advance this aim, the Palestinians seek to isolate Israel internationally by criminalizing it in international arenas. The Palestinians have made intense use of all UN bodies to achieve their goal. With automatic majorities in nearly every UN body, the most obvious impediment to the Palestinians' bid to criminalize Israel and thus bring about its international isolation is the US's Security Council veto.
Since the Palestinians first began using the UN to criminalize Israel in the 1970s, it has been the consistent policy of all US administrations to use the Security Council veto to either vote down anti-Israel initiatives or remove them from the agenda by threatening to veto them.
But then came US President Barack Obama with his expressed interest in reconciling the US with the anti- American and anti-Israel majorities in all UN bodies. To this end, Obama has refused to commit himself to using the veto to prevent the criminalization of Israel.
Capitalizing on Obama's position, the Palestinians tried to make it as hard and politically costly as possible for Obama to support Israel.
Friday's vote was months in the making and it was clearly inspired by the Obama administration's own policies.
Since entering office, the president has been outspoken in his view that Jews must be denied their property rights in Jerusalem neighborhoods outside the 1949 armistice lines, and in Judea and Samaria. Obama has repeatedly plunged US-Israel relations into crisis with his unprecedented demand that the Netanyahu government adopt his discriminatory policies and deny Jews the right to their property in these areas.
Obama's obsession with barring Jewish property rights provided the Palestinians with the opening to undermine US support for Israel at the Security Council. By putting forward a resolution condemning Israel for upholding Jewish property rights, the Palestinians forced Obama to choose between his principles and the US alliance with Israel.
As the Palestinians rightly saw things, the resolution put them in a win-win situation. Had he allowed the resolution to pass, Obama would have given the Palestinians a strategic victory. If he vetoed the resolution, he would be decried as a hypocrite and thus provide the Palestinians with new justification for refusing to participate in US-mediated negotiations with Israel. Since their goal is to delegitimize Israel, the Palestinians have no interest in negotiating a peace deal with its government.
IN THE weeks leading up to Friday's vote, both houses of the US Congress made it absolutely clear to Obama that abandoning Israel would be unacceptable. Obama and Clinton received letter after letter signed by hundreds of congressmen and scores of senators demanding that he stand with Israel. Recognizing the legislators were simply reflecting the overwhelming support Israel enjoys from the American public, Obama was forced to veto the resolution.
Had he been interested in preventing Friday's vote, he certainly had ample means to do so. He could have told Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas months ago that the administration would veto any anti-Israel resolution brought before the Security Council. Even if Abbas had insisted on pushing forward with the resolution, a strong, consistent message from the administration would have minimized the significance of the event.
Obama could also have used the Security Council's deliberations on the resolution as a means of advancing US regional influence. The resolution was sponsored by Lebanon, today controlled by Hezbollah - an illegal terrorist organization.
Obama could have capitalized on this fact not only to justify his veto, but to force the subject of Hezbollah control over Lebanon onto the UN agenda. Such a move would have advanced US interests twice. It would have insulated Obama from Palestinian rebuke and it would have demonstrated that the US has not accepted Iranian colonization of Lebanon through its Hezbollah proxy.
BUT INSTEAD, the administration adopted a policy it openly hated and then condemned its own behavior. In so doing, it sent four deeply problematic messages to the region.
First, it signaled that it is deeply unserious.
Second, it signaled to the Palestinians that, while blocked by popular US support for Israel from joining them, the administration supports the PA's political war against Israel. That is, Obama told the Palestinians to continue this war against Israel.
Third, the administration told Israel - and all its other allies - that in the era of Obama, the US is not a credible ally. Not only does this message weaken America's allies, it emboldens the likes of Iran and Syria and the Muslim Brotherhood who are increasingly convinced that the US will not stand by its allies in a pinch.
Finally, by standing by as Abbas pushed forward with the resolution despite Obama's repeatedly stated opposition, the president showed all actors in the region that there is no price to be paid for defying the US. Obama did not announce that he is ending US financial support for Fatah. He did not state that the US is ending its training of the Fatah forces. Instead, he sent Rice before the cameras to tell the world that he agrees with the Palestinians, who just slapped him in the face.
The question is why is the administration behaving this way? The obvious answer is that it really does side with the Arabs against Israel. Strengthening this view is the fact that since taking office, Obama has been consistently hostile to Israel and its strategic interests.
There is another possible explanation, however: That the administration is simply too incompetent to understand the significance of its actions. This explanation appears increasingly credible in light of the US's ham-fisted handling of the revolutions raging throughout the Arab world.
In Egypt, the administration did not simply show America's closest ally in the Arab world the door. By legitimizing the Muslim Brotherhood, Obama has paved the way for the next Egyptian crisis.
At the latest, this crisis will occur in September with the scheduled elections. At that point, three scenarios will arise.
1. The ruling military junta may cancel the elections and foment another rebellion.
2. If the military permits free and fair elections, the Muslim Brotherhood will become the most potent force in Egypt due to its unmatched organizational capacity.
After the elections the Muslim Brotherhood may adopt the model of Turkey's Islamist AKP party and move Egypt into the Iranian camp while pretending it is still a US ally.
3. After the elections, the Muslim Brotherhood may adopt the Khomeinist model and foment an Islamic revolution in Egypt.
IN ALL these scenarios, America's strategic interests will be placed in jeopardy. But presently, it is far from clear that the Obama administration recognizes that these are the consequences of the policies it adopted.
Then there is Saudi Arabia. By supporting the anti- Mubarak forces in Egypt and the Iranian-backed demonstrators in Bahrain and Yemen, the administration has destroyed the US alliance with the Saudis.
This may or may not be a positive development. Saudi Arabia has been one of the most radicalizing forces in the Middle East at the same time that it has been the steady engine behind the world's oil economy.
Whether wrecking the US-Saudi alliance is a good thing or a bad thing, it's unlikely that the current US government recognizes either that it has been destroyed, or that this has happened in large measure as a consequence of the administration's behavior.
From an Israeli perspective, whether motivated by an animus towards Israel or extraordinary incompetence, the Obama administration's Middle East policies offer one message.
We can only rely on ourselves and so we'd better strengthen ourselves as much as possible as quickly as possible in every possible way.
Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.
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When the US cannot even extract one of its diplomats, from the clutches of the Pakistan that the US insists upon keeping on a financial life-support/nuclear weapons programme subsidy, it would be reasonable to conclude, that the days of US in the middle east, are as rapidly coming to an end, as their former, North African and Arab client states. Israel has exceptional organizational ability, too, so should get on with reorganizing the reality on the ground, before the Muslim Brotherhood makes its, inevitable play.
'We can only rely on ourselves and so we'd better strengthen ourselves as much as possible as quickly as possible in every possible way.'
'ourselves' is who got Israel in this mess in the first place.
Not much time to dig out of the peace process hole Israel dug deep,deep into.
There is however a big payment due on the cost of running to the big,empty,hollow,lying idol for peace and ignoring the One who is angry with 'ourselves.'
Israel has sown the wind and is soon to reap the whirlwind.
"Then the earth shook and trembled;
The foundations of heaven quaked and were shaken,
Because He was angry."
2 Samuel 22:8
Caroline, excellent as always and to the point. There is no question that the Obama administration is in league with the arch enemies of Israel while at the same time Barack Obama is a fool on a fool's errand. He has done nothing to endear himself to the American people, our enemies laugh at us and our allies know they cannot count on US support. Israel has only herself to depend on. In the words of Rabbi Hillel, "if not now, when?"
Both explanations are true. Obama hates Israel and is stupid. Since Israelis fundamentally believe that their existance is dependant on the U.S. no matter how hostile its administration, they will appease the Obama administration, abuse "settlers" and the right end of the israeli political spectrum, and persue self-defeating policies.
Obama and his team are Unbelievably Stupid Yet Arrogant to Keep on the same path to disaster : Is it possible that no one in the USA has enough clout ( political & financial ) to tear down the Obama lies and his leftist agenda ?
Are you american still brainwashed to ignore that this empty preacher brings the whole world closer to a nuclear armed Iran ?
The question is : is Obama plain stupid or just a cynical leftist ? Or maybe he is both ? And when will american opinion wakes up to the disaster he is cooking ?
Caroline by now I would hope the Obama kool-aid drinkers have awakened with one big hangover, a hangover they rightfully deserve.
Mixed signals from one as I describe as “An acorn community organizing pamphlet distributing anti-Semite pretending to be a Christian (for political opportunity) who embraces Islam and an incompetent president”.
I believe once we establish who Mr. Obama is the better we realize the colossal error in electing this person.
He is by no means a friend of Israel.
He has visited a number of Arab countries but has yet made an official presidential visit to Israel for fear it will offend the Arab world while legitimizing this Jewish Nation.
First of all Obama and his administration has no business dictating to Israel period.
The people of Israel have G-d given rights to the Holy Land and should continue community construction.
By now we should be convinced it’s time to quit the UN cesspool of bad character nations who have the world’s worst human rights violation, treating their citizens and especially women like crap. Closing the headquarters in NY forcing them to move elsewhere, the South Pole would be ideal, a nice place for their delegates and staff can do the town.
When you consider the amounts of money provided by #1, the US and other nations, measure this against the good this body has accomplished we have been robbed.
Why not the US, Canada, GB, France, Italy, Germany , Israel and a few other countries of free men and women and form the “Free World Alliance”, working together in peace and mutual respect, aiding each other in time of need and conflict. One of the main goals of the mutual respect should begin with eradicating anti-Semitism.
Let’s see how the bad guys get along with each other.
It is a great shame that the international mainstream media exercises no pressure and pay no attention to the silence of the White House for the last couple of weeks.
The electoral calculating Keniaan plays a morbid geo-political and geo-military game with the overheated Chinese Central Committee
The White House mohamedan wants to create more islamic regimes and wants to destroy the last drop of secular thought in the Arabic world from Casablanca to AfPak.
The Chinese may expand their economic sphere of influence in the Arabic world.
The Kenian does this with Panetta-Gates-Clinton-Rice by mobilizing any kind of social discontent to inflict a crescendo of purposeless, unprepared, deadly naïef uproar or scream for a political change of power … but yeah by whom, by what ?
And worldwide the media walks along in a mode of embedded mind set conform the policy of the Kenian
Charles Smyth, the 'diplomat' to which you refer, works for the CIA and is evidently a bit of a rogue agent. The situation is more complex than it may appear. Which in no way is meant to imply that our gov't. actions are not pathetic.
Naomir, correct.
anon,correct.
Philip, far more Americans are aware of Obama's character and goals than is apparent. The problem is that many Americans get their information from the MSM, which has become the propaganda arm of the 'progressive left', which controls the Democrat party.
Our constitution greatly limits what we can do about Obama. His defeat in 2012 (problematic) is our best hope. But even should Obama lose, so many in the West have embraced the lies of the left, that effective action by the US is problematic.
Ron,
But that it were so simple. The UN is a cesspool and we're stuck with it.
Yes, we're stuck with it, because if we left, no one would follow us and we'd simply be isolated with Russia and China then calling the tune in the UN.
That Obama is hostile to Israel can hardly be doubted. That this administration is also inept and blind to the interests of America, or opportunities to advance those interests, is blindingly clear.
The just-defected Libyan ambassador to the U.S., Ali Ojli, accused Obama of not caring about human rights except when it is America's interests. As I posted then, "Mr. Ojli vastly overestimates this administration's capability to understand what is in the United States' interests."
The one consistency of the Obama administration has been amateurishness and ineptitude. Like you, Caroline, I agree that this is a decidedly unserious president.
geoffreybritain
I hear you, but with the right US president, a real leader I feel the nations I mentioned would pull together and follow.
Let's face it we are throwing good money after bad and a time has come to put it behind us.
Let's hope and pray the spark the Tea Party ignited will carry over and a strong conservative president will emerge.
Let's face it, the bad characters nations are the same peas in a pod and deserve each other.
And of course Israel has been condemned by this worthless body for everything including bad weather.
Goldwater said it years ago:
"The time has come to recognize the United Nations for the anti-American, anti-freedom organization that it has become. The time has come for us to cut off all financial help, withdraw as a member, and ask the United Nations to find headquarters location outside the United States that is more in keeping with the philosophy of the majority of voting members, someplace like Moscow or Peking."
We should have acted then.
The weakling man child created the largest power vacuum for the worlds most dangerous players, with the faculty lounge appeasement rhetoric. Thug dictators looked around and said it was time to party. The left ignores history .All cultures are equal, America is an imperialist warmonger!
They need to see Hitchens Axis of Evil lecture on repeat ,tied down eyes clamped open Clockwork Orange style.
Outstanding commentary & sit-rep,Caroline. This would have served as an excellent contingency briefing to the White House and State Dept even 90 days ago.We appear to be promoting checkers,still clueless the dark forces are playing chess. Meanwhile, as you correctly state, the vast numbers of Americans continue to stand with our friends, beginning with Israel.Might you be available to consult at Foggy Bottom? We need a clinic conducted on clarity, both strategic and moral.
The U.S. Navy is obligated to protect sea lines of communication (SLOC's), and the Mediterranean sea lines are extremely important for 2 reasons among others: 1) It is the shortest sea route from east coast U.S. ports to the Persian/Arabian Gulf; 2) It is an important oil tanker route (I read that Suez Canal was recently deepened to handle most, but not all oil tankers). If indeed the Obama Administration supports Iranian backed demonstrators in Bahrain and Yemen, that would surrender the straits of Hormuz and Bab El Mandab maritime chokepoints. The Muslim Brotherhood or similar group in Egypt would surrender Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline; if Tunisia fell, the strait of Sicily narrowly separates Tunisia from Berlusconni's Italy. The "Somali pirates" are a threat on the longer Cape of Good Hope route around Africa. Clearly, we need better political leadership, as current conditions could gravely threaten our shipping.
...We can only rely on ourselves and so we'd better strengthen ourselves as much as possible as quickly as possible in every possible way.
[...and then some.]
To Geoffreybritain :; The Obama agenda must be clarified ; Obama is not inept, he is a very cynical leftist who has decided to form a duopole with China and consequently to weaken every concurrent of this duopole starting with Europe. Europe is the main economic competitor to the USA in the chinese market. And Europe is not dependent for its survival as the USA are ,on chinese buying of European T-Bonds ( German Bund - French OAT- Italian BoT ) . Therefore Obama strategy is to create a maximum of harm to Europe through the collapse of arab despots, whose population are now INVADING the shores of Italy, Spain , and soon France. Arab despots are doomed thanks to Obama grand strategy BUT do note Obama is very soft on Iran terrorist-theocratic regime. Since Iran is the No.1 supplier of China 's oil, Obama does not press on Iran. Israel is used by Obama as a fuse to fire up he mediteranean . The weakening of Israel either diplomatically, economically , or military is a bonus for tilting the balance of power in the mediteranean in favor of the muslims powers and to the detriment of christian-european powers.
European leaders , do accept the dictate from Obama out of their historical cowardice. They find much more easy to put the blame on Israel for all the mid-east instability ( remarkably in those last weeks of arab masses revolt they could not decently sing the same old tune of " enough with Israel ".)
The european leaders are in fact singing two different tunes : One for their own constituency when Cameron, Merkel, Sarkozy , say exactly at the same moment the same thing ( multiculturalism - read muslim invasion- is bad for europe ) and another tune to the mideast scene, where they try to placate the violent moods as much as the arab masses wants ( down with the dictator - until comes soon down with Israel ). So on the whole Obama has a clear path, almost no contradictors except a few common sense congressmen and senators , a bunch of old christians who are quickly derided as rednecks , a few liberal thinkers too academic to get a large media coverage. The republican party has very little understanding of the whole Obama strategy , it should concentrate on going right to the core of Obama economic suicidal policy of embracing the chinese boa constrictor( and getting more and more dependent on chinese import-financing of the US deficit-losing jobs to he chinese). And consequently denounces the collateral damages ( Mediteranean swiped by Islamist powers, Europe weakened,Israel badly hurt ) . I doubt Ms Sarah Palin is articulate enough to sum up all those different matters , but the Axis of Evil is now sitting in Washington D.C right in the White House.The right motto could be " Americans first " and " suicide is painful - not painless " or " no more economic suicide ". The rest should follow naturally .
Obama doesn't like human rights (mislabeled "property rights" in the essay) in the USA, either. Or anywhere for that matter. He's a socialist.
If you know anyone who is a friend to human rights or a friend to Israel who lives in the USA, convince them to stop voting Democrat and to vote for the most conservative Republican available.
On the other hand, if friends of Israel and of human rights continue to vote Democrat, well..., sow the wind.
Unfortunately, there remain many who are unaware of the prevaricator-in-chief who continues to occupy the oval office. This man is by far the worse leader this nation has ever had.to say that his actions, activities and the people that he surrounds himself are traitorous and bent on the destruction of our country is an understatement. I tend to believe with those that contend that Obama knows exactly what he is doing, and that he is an evil man, couched in the destructive ideology of radical Muslim culture and its' political philosophy, which includes the total destruction of western civilization.
There are too many activities that he engages in that do not haphazardly converge to the same sysyematic policy of denigrating and isolating Israel, while at the same time berating our country and elevating pro-Islamic interests in the various countries of the world. Not only is Obama aligning the nations in the Middle East and those surrounding the Mediterranean with potential radical Muslim takeovers, he is using our State Department and various business interests to assist him. He picks and chooses his points of attack, always being careful not to alienate the leadership and political "stability" of those countries where radical Islam is strongly entrenched.
As always, Caroline, a very incisive and accurate analysis of the world stage and the players, good and bad, that make up the conflict. I would slightly qualify your statement that it looks like Israel stands alone in protecting herself, although she had better proceed with that premis until it is otherwise indicated. there is a strong cadre of American Christians and conservative Jews, who will not stand idly by while Obama pontificates with his idle diatribe, but actively engages behind the scenes planning both the destruction of Israel and these United States of America. Hopefully the liberal Jewish population of this country do not have to wait until Obama begins sewing stars on their garments before they realize who this imposter is.
I TOLD YOU SO!!!
EVERSINCE I KNEW THAT OBAMA IS A FARCE. i SOMEHOW knew that Mr.Obama is not going to offer a solution. But instead create one.
In "The Roots of Obama's Rage" Dinesh D'Souza shows that Obama seems to be trying in some demented way to fulfill his demented father's Anti-colonial dreams. Don't forget, this president has never had a real job until becoming president. A look at his past makes it easier to understand our current mess.