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March 30, 2007, 11:16 PM

At least she's not corrupt

The return of thousands of Israelis to the ruins of Homesh village in northern Samaria this week was a bolt from the blue. A rare combination of wisdom, morality and great timing, the demonstration forced the local media to acknowledge the strategic folly and moral bankruptcy of the expulsion and withdrawal policy that transformed some 10,000 Israeli Jews into internal refugees a year and a half ago.


Homesh was one of the 21 communities razed by prime minister Ariel Sharon's government in August 2005. On Monday, thousands marched to its ruins and pledged to rebuild it. Although by Tuesday radio and television newscasters were predictably agitating for the IDF to violently remove the demonstrators, their anti-settler prattle came off flat. The thrill was gone.


After the war in Lebanon last summer, and Gaza's post-withdrawal transformation into a mini-Taliban state, it is no longer possible to sound intelligent while advocating Israeli withdrawals and expulsions. Since few people are willing to sound like fools, most of the broadcasters acknowledged the withdrawal's strategic failure.


Without its strategic fig leaf, all that remains to defend the policy of ethnically cleansing areas of Jewish presence is the hatred card upheld by the Arabs and the Left. Both claim that Jews must be removed from their homes because their mere presence in their communities is responsible for the genocidal hatred than has taken control of the Palestinian and the Arab world's collective psyche.


The protesters at Homesh ably dispensed with this anti-Semitic nonsense by pointing to the fact that the IDF remains in the areas in spite of the removal of its Jewish residents. The IDF has remained in place because contrary to the promises of the plan's proponents, the expulsion of the Jews of northern Samaria and Gaza did nothing to mitigate the Palestinians' commitment to Israel's destruction. To the contrary, it simply whetted their appetite for war. Indeed, what the aftermath of the expulsions proved was that far from burdening the army, before they were destroyed, the communities in northern Samaria and Gaza protected the IDF by providing secure bases for operations.


As luck would have it, the demonstrators exposed the moral bankruptcy and strategic idiocy at the heart of the withdrawal and expulsion policy just as US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Israel. Rice came to pressure the Olmert-Livni-Peretz government to conduct negotiations with the Palestinian Authority's Hamas-Fatah terror government. The ultimate object of Rice's proposed talks is the expulsion of hundreds of thousands more Israelis from their homes in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem just because they are Jews. There can be little doubt that their protest took the wind out of Rice's sails.


SINCE ISRAEL'S defeat in last summer's war, the public standing of most of the politicians who worked towards the 2005 expulsions has taken a pounding. But while Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's approval ratings languish in the single digits, the politician whose contribution to the expulsion policy was second only to Sharon's, and the minister who pushed hardest for Israel's defeat in last summer's war, continues to enjoy widespread public support.


A Ma'ariv poll taken last week showed that were Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to stand at the helm of Kadima in the next elections, the governing party would win 27 Knesset seats to 23 seats for Likud under Binyamin Netanyahu.


Given that Livni is a relative newcomer to the leadership ranks of Israeli politics, it is worth recalling the context of her rise to prominence. When Sharon first announced his lunatic plan to retreat from Gaza in early 2004, Livni was a junior minister in his government identified with the right-wing faction of the Likud.


But Livni saw her opportunity, and she took it.


Without pausing to ask questions, Livni abandoned all her previous ideological protestations and jumped on the expulsion bandwagon.


It was just a matter of months until the junior immigration minister was reinvented as the senior justice minister and Livni became one of the most powerful politicians in Israel.


In her new role Livni did two things that together ensured the expulsions would go forward. First, Livni protected Sharon's leadership position in the Likud by drafting the so-called "compromise" deal on expulsions in early 2005. Livni's compromise, which was approved by the government in February 2005, co-opted Likud ministers who opposed the expulsion policy by promising that it would be implemented in stages over a period of months and that each stage would require separate cabinet approval.


It took Sharon's advisers all of five minutes after the deal was approved by the cabinet to disavow it. But Livni didn't mind. Her safeguarding of Sharon's premiership at her colleagues' expense made her the media darling she has remained to this day.


And her colleagues weren't the only ones who Livni trampled on her way up the political ladder. Livni actively worked to subvert the rule of law in order to squelch lawful opposition to the expulsion plan. In her capacity as justice minister, Livni was one of the principal architects of the draconian judicial and law enforcement measures used against opponents of the expulsion policies in total contravention of the laws of the state.


Livni denied protesters their freedom of movement by blocking buses en route to legal demonstrations. She approved massive and arbitrary arrests and lengthy pre-trial incarcerations of thousands of citizens including minors for participating in protests. She blatantly trounced the civil rights, including property rights, of the residents of Gaza and northern Samaria. Taken together, the measures that Livni implemented caused the effective collapse of Israeli democracy in the summer of 2005.


Livni's contribution as justice minister to undermining the rule of law and Israeli democracy is matched by her contribution as foreign minister to Israel's diplomatic collapse.


Last Sunday, former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton discussed last summer's war in Lebanon during an interview with the BBC. Bolton said that during the first weeks of the war the US rejected holding cease-fire negotiations because it wished to give Israel the time it needed to defeat Hizbullah. According to Bolton, the Bush administration only agreed to commence cease-fire discussions after it became clear that Israel was not winning.


In supporting an Israeli victory, the Americans apparently didn't count on the Livni-led diplomatic charge to defeat. By her own admission, Livni was pushing to begin cease-fire negotiations on the second day of the war. Although (or perhaps because) a ground campaign was the only way that Israel could possibly have defeated Hizbullah, Livni consistently opposed conducting one. Instead she recommended deploying an international peacekeeping force at the border to separate Israel from an undefeated Hizbullah.


Livni's cease-fire discussions with Rice from the earliest stages of the war, coupled with her consistent rejection of the option of military victory were used by State Department officials to justify their opposition to President George W. Bush's view that Israel should be given as much time and maneuvering room as possible to defeat Hizbullah in battle.


Since August, Livni has exulted in UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which set the cease-fire terms. But far from the stellar achievement Livni claims it to be, Resolution 1701 marked an unprecedented military and diplomatic defeat for Israel.


As Livni mindlessly wished, the resolution places an international force on Israel's border. But rather than fight Hizbullah, UNIFIL forces act principally to prevent the IDF from blocking Hizbullah's rearmament and reassertion of its control over south Lebanon. Indeed under the cover of 1701 Hizbullah has in fact rearmed and reasserted its control over the south.


Diplomatically, the resolution treats Israel and Hizbullah as equals; makes no mention of Syria and Iran - without which Hizbullah would be little more than a vigilante gang of religious fanatics; and does not require the release of IDF hostages Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser.


Although Livni played a central role in ensuring Israel's defeat last summer, the media have given her a free pass. For the overwhelmingly leftist media, given the irrevocability of Olmert's political demise, Livni represents the last hope to maintain the Left's control over Israeli policymaking.

Livni's strategically calamitous embrace of defeat during the war in Lebanon is matched by her strategically calamitous embrace of PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas today. Since accepting Fatah's junior status in the Hamas government, Abbas has been reduced to nothing more than a Hamas toady. So by upholding Abbas as a credible partner, Livni has effectively provided Israeli cover to the terrorist unity government.


While most Israelis consistently voice their opposition to dealing with the Hamas-Fatah government, Livni has encouraged the US to pressure Israel to negotiate the surrender of Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem with Abbas. Most recently, Livni's diplomatic wrangling paved the way for the US's embrace of the so-called Arab initiative. That anti-Israel initiative states that the Arabs will conduct "normal" relations with Israel right after Israel commits national suicide by surrendering Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem to the Palestinians, the Golan Heights to Syria, and permitting millions of foreign Arabs to immigrate to its shrunken territory.


While Livni opposes the Arab demand that the so-called Palestinian refugees be permitted to settle in Israel, she openly supports their unlimited immigration to the Palestinian state in Jerusalem, Gaza, Samaria and Judea. Livni's position - as usual - ignores the reality on the ground. Since there is no natural geographical distinction between a future terrorist state of Palestine and a future defenseless Israel, if millions of Arabs come to Palestine, they will also come to Israel.


PUBLIC SUPPORT for Livni is based less on her policies, of which the public is largely unaware and overwhelmingly opposes, than on the fact that she is not currently the subject of any criminal probes. Due to her apparent non-involvement in criminal activities, in contrast to her colleagues in Kadima, Livni is perceived as honest and uncorrupt.


But corruption takes many forms.


Livni has repeatedly sold out Israeli's national interests for personal gain. Earlier in the year, Livni lied to the public in order to transfer $100 million in tax revenues to the Hamas-Fatah terror government. As justice minister she prostituted the rule of law to advance the expulsions. Last summer she surrendered the security of northern Israel to the good graces of Iran, Syria and Hizbullah in order to sign on to a humiliating cease-fire. And now she advocates a policy towards the Palestinians that would imperil Israel's viability as a Jewish state.


In short, Livni sold out Zionism for a job promotion.


This week's return to Homesh was another important step forward in the nation's abandonment of the path of defeatism and surrender. But for defeatism to be replaced with a reassertion of Zionist ideals, Livni, who owes her career to her sacrifice of those ideals, must also be cast aside.

Originally published in The Jerusalem Post. 

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March 28, 2007, 12:00 AM

The Saudi Plan For Israel’s Destruction

The past week has been characterized by feverish diplomacy regarding the Arab-Israel conflict. The sheer scope of the meetings that have taken place – from the shuttle diplomacy of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, to the conference of Arab League foreign ministers in Egypt last weekend to the summit of Arab leaders in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday – one would think that peace is just a stone’s throw away.
All the various meetings have centered on the so-called Arab Peace Plan, or as it is more commonly known, the Saudi initiative.
Earlier this month Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced, “The Saudi initiative must be taken seriously,” and then claimed that it had “positive aspects.” Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni also warmly praised the plan. Rice has led the Bush administration in embracing the plan and applauding the Saudis for their “moderation” and their positive role in advancing the cause of peace in the region. In talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Ghreit on Sunday, Rice went so far as to intimate that the U.S. now views the plan as the basis for peace making between Israel and the Palestinians.
But frenetic discussions aside, there is no chance whatsoever that the Saudi initiative will bring peace to the region or end the Arab world’s conflict with Israel.
The Saudi initiative was concocted in February 2002 as a public relations stunt on the part of then-crown prince and now King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. At the time, Saudi-U.S. relations were at an all-time low. Fifteen of the 19 hijackers on September 11, 2001 were Saudi citizens and in the months following that act of war against America, the media exposed Saudi Arabia’s massive role in financing the global jihad through direct aid to terror groups and the establishment of jihadist mosques and schools from Pakistan to Peoria to Paris.
Attempting to reassert their importance as an ally to Washington, the Saudi government wanted badly to change the subject. What better way to divert attention from their central role in the global jihad, whose forces openly called for the destruction of the U.S. and of the Western world, than by taking on the role of peacemaker in the Middle East between Israel and the Palestinians?
Here too, it is important to remember the context of events.
In February 2002, the Saudi-financed Palestinian jihad against Israel was reaching a fever pitch. Suicide bombings had become a daily occurrence. Indeed, in March 2002, some 130 Israeli citizens were murdered in terror attacks that culminated with the Passover massacre at the Park Hotel in Netanya where 30 Israelis celebrating the seder were murdered by a suicide bomber.
It was at this time that Abdullah (breaking his monarchy’s law that bars Jews from entering the kingdom) invited New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman for a visit to Riyadh. During their meeting, Abdullah suggested that were Israel to return all the land it took control over in the 1967 Six-Day War, including Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, Judea, Samaria and Gaza, the Arab world would consider normalizing its relations with Israel.
The next month, the Arab League convened in Beirut. The meeting took place the day after the Passover massacre (and on the same day that a conference of international terror chiefs was convening in the city). At the summit, the Arab heads of state made a number of changes to Abdullah’s offer to Friedman and then adopted it as the Arab peace plan.
The plan that was announced at the time – and it has not changed in the intervening five years – involves more than Israel’s surrender of all the lands it liberated in 1967. The plan also demands that Israel accept some 4-5 million foreign-born Arabs, (otherwise known as Palestinian “refugees”) as immigrants. The Arab League’s plan stipulates that after Israel completes the withdrawals and enables these foreign, overwhelmingly hostile Arabs to immigrate, the Arab world will agree to have “regular” relations with it.
Five years ago, Israel rejected the plan completely, and reasonably so. Far from a “peace plan,” it is a recipe for Israel’s destruction. Without the lands that the plan requires Israel to surrender to the Palestinians and the Syrians, Israel is incapable of defending itself from invasion. The Arab peace plan, in other words, requires that Israel render itself indefensible.
Moreover, the demand that Israel allow the unimpeded immigration of millions of hostile Arabs is simply another way of saying that Israel must agree to allow itself to be overrun and so demographically destroyed.
Finally, the plan’s statement that in response to these suicidal steps by Israel the Arab world will agree to have “regular” relations with it is itself meaningless because the term “regular” is an empty one.
All in all, the Arab “peace” plan is nothing but a blueprint for Israel’s destruction.
Given its content, it should surprise no one that the plan makes no mention of terrorism and places no demand on the Palestinians to end their terror war against Israel or on the Arab world to end its financial and other support for the Palestinian war.
Then too, the plan makes no mention of holding negotiations with Israel; of ending the Arab economic boycott of Israel; or of ending the jihadist incitement that has indoctrinated the current generation of Palestinians and Muslims worldwide to seek Israel’s violent destruction.
And the “peace” plan makes no mention of the possibility that the Arab world would recognize the Jewish people’s right to a state in the Land of Israel and thereupon open diplomatic relations with the Jewish state.
The main question is why the Americans and Israelis are participating in this dangerous farce. As former U.S. Middle East negotiator Aaron Miller commented to The New York Times regarding Rice’s embrace of the plan, “She really has tied her personal credibility to this issue in a way that most normal political observers would say, ‘Is she nuts?’”
The sanity of Rice and Olmert and Livni is not the issue. Rather, it is their strategic wisdom that seems to be sorely lacking. Perhaps they believe that if they are perceived as advancing the prospects of peace by clinging to the Arab plan for Israel’s destruction they will receive a needed, if momentary, boost in their popularity ratings. If that’s what’s moving them to act, it is a shame.
For the simple truth is that this plan, as was the case with all the previous failed “peace” initiatives between Israel and its neighbors, places the burden for solving the Middle East’s problems on the principal victim of those problems – Israel – rather than on the Arab governments, like Saudi Arabia, that are responsible for them.
Not only is the plan doomed to fail, it will cause the deaths of untold numbers of Israelis who will be killed because neither Rice nor Olmert nor Livni is honest enough to admit that Saudi Arabia is neither a moderate nor a peaceful nation.

Originally published in The Jewish Press.
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March 26, 2007, 10:39 PM

Condi's embrace of jihadist 'peace'

In an open act of war, Iran Friday kidnapped 15 British soldiers in the Persian Gulf. Iran's act of aggression occurred just as the British voted in favor of a UN Security Council resolution imposing increased sanctions against Teheran for its illicit nuclear weapons program.


Several theories have been raised to explain Iran's behavior. Some say that the Iranians acted against the British in the hope that Britain would respond by abandoning its alliance with the US and swiftly pulling its forces out of Iraq.


Another theory is that in kidnapping the sailors the Iranians are seeking to reenact their ploy from last summer. Then, Iran ordered its Lebanese proxy Hizbullah to kidnap IDF soldiers in order to divert the international community's attention away from Iran's nuclear program. As is the case with the British servicemen, so last summer's attack on the IDF took place as the Security Council was expected to convene and discuss sanctions against Iran for its pursuit of nuclear weapons.


Yet another theory has it that Iran kidnapped the sailors to use as a bargaining chip to force the US military to release Iranian operatives who the US has arrested in Iraq in recent months.


Whatever the case may be, it is absolutely clear that the Iranians intentionally fomented this international crisis with the expectation that their aggression would in some way be rewarded.


AGAINST THIS backdrop, and given the stakes involved, it could have been expected that the US and its allies would be concentrating their attention on how to weaken Iran and its terror proxies and curtail Iran's ability to acquire a nuclear arsenal. But, alas, the US is doing just the opposite.


The Iranians acted as US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was en route to the region. Since Friday, Rice has shuttled between Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan, and is on her way to Saudi Arabia. She is not working to coordinate moves to check Iran's increasing bellicosity. Rather, Rice is laboring to empower Teheran's terrorist allies in Hamas, the Islamic Jihad and Fatah. This she does by promoting the so-called Arab peace plan, which demands that Israel agree to dangerous and strategically catastrophic concessions to the Palestinian terrorist government.


In behaving thus, Rice is walking in the well-worn footsteps of her predecessors. Indeed, it seems almost axiomatic that when the going gets tough for US administrations, administration officials get tough on Israel.


AFTER THE Republicans won control of the Congress in 1994, then president Bill Clinton was hard-pressed to advance his domestic agenda. And so Clinton - who had almost no interest in foreign policy in his opening years of office - turned his attention to Israel and the so-called peace process, in which Israel was expected to give land, arms and legitimacy to the PLO in exchange for terrorism.


Clinton's penchant for forcing Israeli concessions to the PLO in the name of peace became more pronounced as things became more difficult for him during his impeachment hearings in 1998. As the House of Representatives poised to vote on articles of impeachment, Clinton twisted then prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu's arm until he signed the Wye Plantation memorandum, in which Israel pledged to transfer wide swathes of Judea and Samaria to Yasser Arafat's terrorist government.


Clinton forced Netanyahu's hand in spite of the fact that, by 1998, it was clear that Arafat was actively enabling Hamas and Islamic Jihad to carry out terror attacks against Israel and indoctrinating Palestinian society to wage jihad for Israel's destruction.


But negotiating with Netanyahu was inconvenient. Netanyahu refused to implement the Wye agreement in light of Arafat's support for terrorism and forced Clinton to acknowledge that Arafat was doing nothing to combat terror. Unhappy with this state of affairs, Clinton set out to overthrow Netanyahu's government.


IN AN ACT of unmitigated contempt for Israeli democracy and electoral laws, Clinton sent his own election advisers James Carville, Stanley Greenberg and Robert Schrum to Israel to run Labor party leader Ehud Barak's campaign in the 1999 elections.

The culmination of Clinton's campaign was the failed Camp David summit in July 2000. There, and in subsequent desperate discussions with Arafat at Taba, Barak agreed to hand over the Temple Mount to Arafat in addition to Gaza, Judea, Samaria and a pile of money.


Israel paid dearly for Barak and Clinton's behavior. In the Palestinian jihad that followed Arafat's rejection of Barak and Clinton's plaintive offers, more than 1,000 Israelis were murdered - more than 70 percent of whom were civilians. Israel's international standing fell to all-time lows as global anti-Semitism rose to levels unseen since the Holocaust.


America too, paid dearly for Clinton's behavior. Rather than pay attention to the burgeoning terror nexus which had placed the US directly in its crosshairs - in 1993 at the World Trade Center; in 1996 at the Khobar Towers; in 1998 at the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania; and in 2000 at the USS Cole - Clinton remained scope-locked on the so-called peace process.


Rather than acknowledge the existence and threat of the global jihad to US national security, Clinton pressured the global jihad's primary victim - Israel - into transferring its heartland and capital to the godfather of modern terrorism.


But while Israel and America bled, Clinton himself paid no price for his behavior. Rather than be blamed for the war he contributed so richly to enabling, Clinton is upheld as a hero at best, or at worst a tragic figure who devoted his presidency to the cause of peace.


Today, Rice's newfound mania for peacemaking comes when local conditions negate any possibility of peace. Just last month the Saudis promised the Palestinians a billion dollars and so paved the way for the Mecca accord, where the Iranian-sponsored Fatah terror group surrendered to the Iranian-sponsored Hamas terror group. In so acting, the Saudis brought about the formation of a Palestinian government openly committed to the use of terrorism as a tool to ensure Israel's destruction.


International conditions also ensure that Rice's peacemaking will fail to make peace. Regionally, Iran ups the ante daily against the US-led coalition in Iraq. Domestically, the Democratic-controlled Congress works daily to prevent the US from fighting its enemies. Globally, states as far-flung as Russia, China and Venezuela make deals with terror governments to check US power.


The program that Rice has come to the region to advance does not even have the benefit of a peaceful facade. The Palestinians make clear every single day that they do not and will not accept Israel's right to exist in any borders, and that they will not work to combat terrorism against Israel. The Arab League, and its member states, for their part, have repeatedly announced that they will brook no change in their "peace" plan which, if implemented will bring about Israel's rapid destruction.


In behaving as she does, Rice, like Clinton before her, is aided by a politically weak and strategically incompetent Israeli government that is willing to sacrifice Israel's long-term security for the benefit of prime-time photo opportunities with bigwig American leaders and Arab potentates.


Sunday, the Olmert-Livni-Peretz government has announced that it is open to negotiating on the basis of the Arab plan. As one government official told The Jerusalem Post, Israel will "not dismiss" the plan.


THIS IS Israel's position in spite of the fact that the Arab plan calls for Israel to surrender east, north and south Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights to Hamas and Syria and for Israel to permit four to five million hostile, foreign-born Arabs posing as Palestinian "refugees" to immigrate to its truncated territory. As the "peace" plan makes clear, all these suicidal Israeli moves must come before the Arab states will be willing to have "regular" (whatever that means) relations with the indefensible, overrun Jewish state.


Commenting on the government's position, the official explained, "We would not reject this out of hand."


It is not surprising that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni are behaving in this manner. After all, these are the same leaders who brought about Israel's defeat in Lebanon in last summer's war at the hands of Iran's Hizbullah proxy army. Last summer, Olmert followed Livni's lead in rejecting military victory as an option. Heeding Livni's unwise, defeatist counsel, Olmert postponed the essential ground offensive in south Lebanon until it was too late to make a difference and instead opted for a negotiated cease-fire.


As is the case with the Arab "peace" plan, the cease-fire Israel enthusiastically acceded to last summer was strategically disastrous for the country. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 places Israel on the same plane as the illegal Hizbullah terrorist organization; prevents Israel from taking steps to defend itself; does not require the safe return of IDF hostages Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser; enables Hizbullah to rearm and reassert its control over south Lebanon; and lets Hizbullah's state sponsors Syria and Iran completely off the hook for their central role in Hizbullah's illegal war against the Jewish state.


Recent history shows that the US and Israel will both pay heavily for the opportunism of our weak political leaders. It can only be hoped that the Israeli and American people have learned enough from our experiences to demand that our leaders stop their reckless behavior before the price of their cowardice and perfidy become unbearable.

Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.

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March 22, 2007, 10:29 PM

The road to serfdom

In Israel, as in the rest of the free world, we are witnessing the death by a thousand cuts of free thought.


Last month, two students at Cambridge University's Clare College became victims of this state of affairs. The students dedicated an edition of their satire magazine to the one-year anniversary of the global Muslim riots which followed the publication of caricatures of Muhammad in the Danish Jyllands Posten newspaper. As the students recalled, those riots led to the deaths of more than a hundred people.


Although the British media refused to republish the caricatures, British Muslims held terrifying protests throughout the country where they called for the destruction of Britain, the US, Denmark and Israel and for the murder of all who refuse to accept the global domination of Islam.

In their magazine, the students published some of the caricatures and mocked the Muslims for their hypocrisy in accusing British society of racial prejudice while calling for its violent destruction.

The Muslim reaction was apparently swift. Fearing for their lives, the students were forced into hiding.


But the Muslims were not alone in their anger. Clare College set up a special disciplinary court to consider action against the students. And the Cambridgeshire police opened a criminal investigation against them in late February.


The persecution of these students provides a case study of the two-pronged offensive being carried out today against Western culture. First there are the jihadists, who call for our destruction. Then there are the leftist intellectuals and public figures who defend radical Islamists and work to silence those who criticize them by criminalizing speech and condemning free thinkers as racists.


The direct consequence of this two-pronged offensive is the repression of free thought.


FOUR YEARS ago, US President George W. Bush called the invasion of Iraq "Operation Iraqi Freedom." The intention was clear. The purpose of the war was not merely to bring down Saddam Hussein's murderous, terror-supporting regime. It was to bring about the defeat of the vile world view that supported the regime and to replace that view with the values of freedom, tolerance and democracy.
 

Four years on, US forces continue their heroic fight to bring order and security to that violent land. But the purpose of their efforts is no longer clear. The US no longer pushes the Iraqis or the greater Arab world to abandon jihad in favor of freedom.


Earlier this month, columnist Joel Mowbray gave evidence of the Bush administration's abandonment of the war of ideas in a Wall Street Journal expose on the US taxpayer-financed Arabic-language television network Al-Hurra. The US launched Al- Hurra in February 2004 to compete with jihadist television networks like Al Jazeera. Its stated aim was to present a liberal, pro-democracy and pro-human rights voice to the Arab world. Yet, as Mowbray reported, since former CNN producer Larry Register was appointed to lead the network last November, that aim fell by the wayside.


In December the network began allowing itself to be used as a platform by arch terrorists like Hizbullah commander Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Last month, when the Israeli Islamic movement began attacking Israel for conducting an archeological dig by the Aksa mosque, Al-Hurra's coverage of the story was more extreme than Al Jazeera's. Palestinian Authority mufti Ikremah Sabri was brought on live and accused Israel of shooting and throwing bombs into the mosque and of denying medical care to those it had supposedly wounded. Al-Hurra has also hosted an al-Qaida terrorist who rejoiced in the September 11 attacks on America.


As is the case in Britain, the Bush administration's decision to largely abandon the ideological battlefield is the result of an uncompromising and unrelenting ideological and political assault against the voices that justify the war against the global jihad generally, and against the hawks in the Bush administration specifically.


Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, Douglas Feith and John Bolton - and arguably Scooter Libby - were all forced from their positions in the Pentagon, the State Department and the White House after coming under unrelenting attack by the Left which all but accused these men of treason for their vigilant support of the war against Islamic totalitarianism. A central component of the onslaught against them was the repeated claim that their support for Israel is what brought these men to delude America into believing that the global jihad is a threat to US national security.


One of the central players in this concerted attack has been the billionaire George Soros. Soros is an anti-Zionist Jew with a troubling past. Specifically, by his own admission in interviews with 60 Minutes in 1998 and PBS in 1993, Soros collaborated with the Nazis in seizing Jewish property in Budapest in 1944.


Author Serge Trifkovic, who is currently researching a biography of Soros, tells of a Holocaust survivor in Hungary who claims that the reason Soros was allowed to remain free was "the boy's special knowledge of the Jewish community and its attempts to protect its property from confiscation."


Since 2003, Soros has donated more than $100 million to radical left-wing groups and to the political campaigns of far-left anti-war Democratic candidates in the US. His money has made him one of the most influential forces in the Democratic Party.


After Hamas won the Palestinian election last January, Soros turned his guns against Israel. Last October he announced his intention to work with left-wing American Jewish groups such as Brit Tzedek v'Shalom, American Friends of Peace Now and the Israel Policy Forum to form an effectively anti-Israel lobbying group that will compete with the pro-Israel American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Soros accuses AIPAC of making common cause with the war hawks and so harming US and Israeli national security.


This week Soros laid out his anti-Israel views in the New York Review of Books. In a longwinded screed entitled, "On Israel, America and AIPAC," Soros presents an incoherent hodgepodge of sloppy logic and contradictory statements. On the one hand, he acknowledges that Israel's withdrawal from Gaza radicalized the Palestinians and brought Hamas to power. On the other hand, he insists that further Israeli withdrawals will cause the Palestinians to moderate. While he acknowledges that Hamas is a terror group, he insists that the US must recognize it and force Israel to recognize it and that AIPAC is responsible for neither recognizing Hamas as a legitimate political force in the region.


Soros claims to want peace for Israel. Yet he demands that the US and Israel embrace the Saudi plan which calls for Israel's effective destruction through a forced Israeli withdrawal from Judea, Jerusalem, Samaria and the Golan Heights and the demographic destruction of the Jewish state through unimpeded immigration of 4-5 million foreign-born Arabs.


In effect, Soros's arguments make clear that protestations aside, the advancement of human rights and peace cannot possibly be his true goals. Rather, what seems to interest him most is the erosion of the US-Israel alliance. A US abandonment of Israel is seen as a necessary component of an overall strategy for causing the US to cease its fight against the global jihad.


In her visit here next week, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to pressure the Olmert-Livni-Peretz government to continue diplomatic contacts with the Hamas-Fatah terror government through PA Chairman and Fatah commander Mahmoud Abbas. In light of the administration's weakening stand on Hamas, it is clear that Soros's views have taken hold in ever-widening policy circles in Washington.


In advancing their anti-Israel views, Soros and his allies (most recently, New York Times columnist Nicholas D. Kristof), invoke the work of radical leftist Israeli organizations like the Geneva Initiative, B'tselem and Peace Now. Like Soros, these organizations claim to act for the advancement of peace and human rights. And like Soros, these organizations effectively cooperate with pro-jihadist groups in eroding Israel's ability to defend its rights as a Jewish democracy.
 

The public storm that ensued this week after Jews in Hebron took control of a building they recently purchased in the city was a clear example of this leftist-jihadist collusion.


In demanding that the IDF move immediately to eject the Jews from the building they had bought, Peace Now and B'tselem ignored human rights and openly advocated the abrogation of the human rights of Israeli Jews to purchase and hold property. In so doing, they lent their support to the racist jihadist view that Jews must be barred from stepping foot in so-called Arab areas.


B'tselem spokeswoman Sarit Michaeli told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday that whether the Jews purchased the building or not was immaterial. In her words, "Our opposition in principle is that these settlements should be evacuated anyway and that there shouldn't be these pockets in Hebron."


She added that "other than watching and making sure that [the sale] was done in a legal way, the IDF has the obligation to make sure that settlers don't take over more areas."


In so arguing, Michaeli gave effective Jewish Israeli support to even more outrageous statements by Israeli Arab parliamentarians. As she claimed that the IDF's job is to fight Jews, Arab MKs Ibrahim Sarsour and Muhammad Barakei participated in the PA's "Jerusalem First" conference in Ramallah. Sarsour called for "Muslims and Arabs" to "liberate Jerusalem."


Sarsour declared, "Just as the Muslims once liberated Jerusalem from the Crusaders, so must we today believe that we can liberate Jerusalem. It is not an impossible dream."


Barakei accused Israel of trying to "empty Jerusalem of its Palestinian inhabitants." Calling Jerusalem a "national issue, not just a religious issue," he called on Palestinians to act immediately to "reclaim the city."


As for Hebron, on Tuesday MK Taleb a-Sanaa called for an international boycott of Israel in response to the Jewish purchase and takeover of the building.


The Arab MKs spoke against the backdrop of Israel's first Arab cabinet minister Ghaleb Majadle's refusal to sing the national anthem and the publication of a University of Haifa poll showing that 76 percent of Israeli Arabs believe that Zionism is a form of racism and that 28% of Israeli Arabs deny the Holocaust.


Needless to say, no criminal investigations into possible treason charges have been opened against the Arab politicians.


A CLEAR line connects the Cambridge students, the Americans in Iraq, and the situation in Israel. The leftist-Islamist front is eroding the free world's sense of justice. Rather than assert our liberal, democratic values and defend our freedoms, fearing leftist condemnation, politicians and opinion shapers have permitted themselves to become shackled to ideologies that negate everything for which the free world stands.

Israel, which stands on the front lines of freedom, is duty-bound to stem the tide. But our ignoble leaders have preferred to stop thinking and silently surrender.


This is how a civilization collapses.

Originally published in The Jerusalem Post. 

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March 19, 2007, 10:20 PM

'Your money and your life'

Anxiety and anticipation swirled through the air in the days preceding Saturday's swearing-in ceremony for the new Hamas-Fatah terror government in the Palestinian Authority. Since Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah brokered the Fatah terror group's surrender to the Hamas terror group last month, everyone who was anyone whispered the same questions: How would the terrorists finesse the existence of Israel in a government platform that refuses to recognize the legitimacy of a Jewish state? What would the government of, by and for terrorists say about terrorism? How would it elide the issue of the four-to-five million so-called Palestinian Arab refugees they want to settle in Tel Aviv and Haifa?


Most importantly, everyone wanted to know how the Palestinian terrorist unity government would approach the so-called peace process, wherein Palestinian terrorists promise Israel peace but never deliver, while Israel gives them land, guns, money and international legitimacy. How would they treat the writ of faith that stipulates the world will be a safe and peaceful place if only the Jews hand Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem and a pile of cash over to Hamas-Fatah?


Would they meet the Quartet's lip-service requirements by denouncing violence, acknowledging Israel's existence and accepting the Israel-PLO agreements that have brought us the current paradise of peace to the Promised Land?


IN OPERATIVE terms, what was utmost on people's minds was whether the Palestinians would provide cover to the Israeli Left, the Europeans and the State Department to resume direct European and US financing, arming and championing of the Palestinian terror groups against Israel and pressure Israel to resume concessions to the Hamas-Fatah government.


Sadly for the peace processors, the answers to all the above questions was no. The Palestinians, under the Hamas-Fatah government, have turned their backs on their supporters on the Israeli Left, in Europe and the State Department. The platform of their government is antithetical to everything the Israeli Left, the EU and the State Department claim to stand for.


Instead of accepting the legitimacy of Israel, the new government platform rejects Israel's right to exist. And as PA chairman and Fatah terror chief Mahmoud Abbas explained, the so-called "right of return," or unlimited immigration of millions of foreign Arabs to the State of Israel - which would lead to the destruction of Israel - is the non-negotiable position of the entire Hamas-Fatah terror government.


Rather than renounce violence, Hamas terror boss and PA Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh stated clearly on Saturday that his Hamas-Fatah government supports "all forms of resistance." Abbas lackey, legislator, Palestinian negotiator and corrupt Fatah businessman Nabil Shaath echoed this point on behalf of Fatah. Defending the terror government's support for terrorism, Shaath said, "The right to resist the occupation is a legitimate right… This should not stop us from seeking a hudna [temporary truce], particularly if it's in the interest of the Palestinians. Meanwhile, we won't give up our right to resist."


Indeed, the government platform says that "resistance" can only be halted upon realization of the "right of return." As to peace, the unity deal between Fatah and Hamas gives no quarter to the peace-mongers. While the government's platform authorizes Abbas to negotiate with Israel, Haniyeh explained that any agreement recognizing a Palestinian state in Judea, Samaria and Gaza must not hinder the rights of the Palestinians to continue "liberating" the rest of Palestine, i.e., Israel.


FACED WITH complete rejection of their minimal conditions, the Israeli Left, the Europeans and the State Department took the only step they could possibly take: They ignored everything the Palestinians said and did. Confronted by the Palestinians' absolute commitment to terror and extortion, they have closed their eyes and moved to embrace the fantasy that there is a deal to be made with the Palestinians.


Menachem Klein is one of the propagators of the Geneva Initiative from 2003, where radical leftists, led by Meretz leader Yossi Beilin and funded by the Swiss government, signed a surrender agreement with the Palestinians, led by the PA's former propaganda minister Yasser Abed Rabbo. Acting with no authority from any quarter, Klein and his colleagues signed away the store to the PLO, and then insisted that the Israeli government was responsible for all the problems in the region because it hadn't signed such a deal itself.


Writing on Ynet, Klein explained this week that now is the time for the radical Left to repeat the exercise by breaking Israeli law, which bans contacts with terror groups like Hamas, and negotiating still another surrender agreement.


In his words, "Not only should the Israeli government engage the Palestinian unity government, the Israeli Left should do so as well. The Israeli Left should not suffice with talks with Abbas... alone. If the Israeli government stands in its way, the Left should resume the tactics that characterized it in the 1980s, when the government legislated a bill that prohibited contact with PLO representatives. With the help of several European governments, this obstacle can also be overcome."


KLEIN'S CALL was echoed by Defense Minister and Labor Party chief Amir Peretz. Speaking at the cabinet meeting Sunday, Peretz called for Israel to come up with its own peace plan that would be based on the proposition that Israel must not insist that the Palestinians first give up terrorism before Israel can give them more land. Sticking to principles such as the right of Israeli citizens not to be murdered makes Israel look anti-peace, Peretz explained.


Like their Israeli clients, the Europeans have made no bones about their eagerness to embrace the terror government. Recalling their quisling predecessors, the Norwegians became the first European country to give it full recognition.


The neo-quislings were followed by the EU and by Italy, which both sent the Palestinians letters of congratulations on their new terror government. France has reportedly agreed to host the Hamas-Fatah terror government's foreign minister, and Britain has pledged to continue its "humanitarian aid" to the Palestinians.


FOR ITS part, the State Department, while stipulating that it won't speak to Hamas, is more than happy to speak with Fatah ministers who flack for Hamas. The Americans' favorite terror financier and recycled PA Finance Minister Salam Fayad will be visiting Washington later in the week. In one of his most recent exploits, Fayad oversaw the disappearance of $100 million in tax revenue that Israel transferred to Abbas's office.


The Palestinians could not be clearer about their demands. Having made no steps toward Israel or even their own devoted supporters, they want Israel to stop defending itself, and they want Israel and the rest of the world to give them lots of money. They want the former so that they can attack Israel without fear. They want the latter because, dedicated as they are to Israel's destruction, they are thoroughly uninterested in developing their own society and economy into anything remotely resembling a viable state. Indeed, they are incapable of even feeding their own people. And so they need us to do it for them, even as they wage war against us.


WHILE ALL of this is quite infuriating, there is nothing new in the actions of any of the concerned parties this week. Indeed, a reading of 60-year-old documents shows that little of substance has changed since Palestinian Arabs first resorted to terror to foil the emergence of a Jewish state.


The 1939 British White Paper reserved its "unqualified condemnation" for "methods employed by Arab terrorists against fellow Arabs and Jews alike," only to explain that "it cannot be denied" that the only proper response to Arab terror was to cut off Jewish immigration and thereby doom European Jewry to its fate. The only thing the British wanted Jews around for was to hold up "the whole of the financial and economic system of Palestine."


Needless to say, Palestinian Arabs pocketed the concession and continued attacks as the British plan was too "pro-Jewish." In September 1948, in the midst of the War of Independence, which came as the Arab world and the Palestinian Arabs launched a war of extermination against Israel rather than accept the UN's partition of the country, the UN mediator Count Folke Bernadotte explained that without "economic union" between the Arabs and the Jews the plan was anyway doomed to failure because of the "justifiable doubts concerning the economic viability of the proposed Arab state."


The Palestinian Arabs failed to establish their own state at the time due to their "unwillingness to undertake any step which would suggest even tacit acceptance of partition, and by their insistence on a unitary State in Palestine."


Then as now, there was no viable Palestinian Arab state because the Palestinians were so dedicated to destroying Israel that they could not spare the time or interest to support themselves. Then, as now, the so-called international community insisted on ignoring or apologizing for the genocidal bellicosity of Palestinian Arab nationalism, while attempting to appease the Palestinians with money and the conferral of international support and legitimacy for the cause of Israel's disembowelment.


THE ONLY thing that can be done in the face of this historically consistent depravity is to finally declare that the jig is up. Those who support recognizing all or part of the Hamas-Fatah terror government are in breach of international law and of UN Security Council Resolution 1373, which bars member states from financing terrorists and those giving them safe harbor.


There is no peace process, only a war process. And if we do not recognize this fact and fight, we shall soon begin to bury more innocents whose lives will be sacrificed because we were too stubborn to acknowledge reality.

Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.

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March 15, 2007, 10:11 PM

As Syria prepares for war

This has been a banner week for Syrian diplomacy. First, together with their big Iranian brothers, the Syrians were given a place at the table alongside US officials at the conference on Iraqi security in Baghdad last weekend.


At the same time as their underlings exchanged recriminations with the US, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and Iranian Defense Minister Mustafa Muhammad Najjar merged the Syrian and Iranian militaries at a summit in Damascus. On Sunday Najjar explained the deal to reporters saying, "We consider the capability of the Syrian defensive forces as our own and believe that expansion of defensive ties would ... help deal with the threats of the enemies." Najjar added that Iran "offers all of its defense capabilities to Syria." The meeting was capped off on Monday when Najjar signed a memorandum of understanding on military cooperation with his Syrian counterpart Hassan Turkmeni.


Tuesday, US Assistant Secretary of State for Refugees Ellen Sauerbrey became the first senior US official to visit Syria since Damascus engineered former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri's assassination in February 2005.


Following closely on Sauerbrey's heels was the EU's foreign policy chief Javier Solana. Like Sauerbrey, Solana was the first senior EU official to set foot in the Syrian capital since Hariri was murdered. Unlike Sauerbrey, who came and left without making a sound, Solana used the occasion to drop a diplomatic bomb.


Standing next to Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moualem Wednesday, Solana announced, "We would like to work as much as possible to see your country Syria recuperate the territory taken in 1967."


Israel should be very concerned by Solana's statement. Seventeen years ago, an American diplomat made a similar statement to another Arab dictator. It was swiftly followed by war.


On July 25, 1990 then US ambassador to Iraq April Glaspie held a fateful meeting with Saddam Hussein. It occurred against the backdrop of a massive Iraqi military build-up along the Kuwaiti border. Glaspie received a cagey and defensive reply from Saddam when she asked the meaning of the deployment. According to the protocol of the meeting which she sent that day to Washington, Glaspie told Saddam that the US took no position on intra-Arab disputes.


At the time, and since, the common view has been that Saddam interpreted Glaspie's statement as American acquiescence to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait which took place eight days later.


Solana's statement that Europe supports the reassertion of Syrian control over the Golan Heights came in the midst of a massive Syrian deployment of offensive weapons systems close to its border with Israel. Early this week, Israeli military commanders revealed that since last September, Syria has deployed between 1,000 and 3,000 missiles and rockets close to that border.


This revelation followed the apparent murder of Russian journalist Ivan Safronov. Safronov, who fell to his death from his fifth floor apartment window in Moscow on March 2, told his editors at the Kommersant newspaper just before his death that he was working on a story exposing Russian sales of advanced Iskander missiles to Syria and jetfighters to Iran.


This week, Michael Maples, the director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, announced that "Syria has a program to develop select biological agents." Maples explained, "Syria's biotechnical infrastructure is capable of supporting limited biological agent development." He added that Syria is seeking to install biological and chemical warheads on its missile arsenal.


Indeed, according to opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu, over the past year Syria has increased its military outlays by a factor of ten.


Syria is using the smokescreen of near weekly protestations of interest in negotiating with Israel to divert attention away from its clear preparations for war. Rather than see these statements for the psychological warfare antics they are, Israeli leftists have pounced on them. Led by Haaretz newspaper, the Israeli Left is exerting massive pressure on the rudderless Olmert-Livni-Peretz government to force it to open negotiations with Damascus - negotiations that would lead to Israel's surrender of the Golan Heights in exchange for a piece of paper from Iran's Arab colony.

Due to the government's general incompetence, it is unable to formulate a coherent policy towards Syria. The Left's calls for surrender talks consequently dominate the public debate on Syria. This in turn has paralyzed the state bodies responsible for taking measures to prepare the IDF and the public for the prospect of war.


The IDF's public assessment of the Syrian threat is evidence of the confusion. Last month, Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin addressed the Syrian threat at the government's intelligence assessment meeting. Yadlin said, "The chances of a full-scale war initiated by Syria are low, but the chances of Syria reacting militarily against Israeli military moves are high."


Yadlin's statement was presented to the public as good news. But it was not good news. Syria will not initiate a full-scale war against Israel because it would lose a full-scale war. Syria's comparative advantage against the IDF is found in the area of low-intensity warfare. And as Yadlin noted, there is every reason to expect that it is this sort of warfare that Syria is preparing to initiate.


Over the past several years, Syria has built up massive artillery, missile and rocket arsenals capable of causing extensive damage to the IDF and to Israeli communities in the Golan Heights and the Galilee. So too, Syria fields a highly trained commando corps capable of exacting physical losses and tactical setbacks to the IDF.


Syria has two good reasons to go to war against Israel. Since 1973, every Arab state and terrorist organization that has gone to war against Israel has benefited from their aggression. Syria no doubt expects for the pattern to continue. In all likelihood, if Syria is able to fight Israel to a stalemate as Hizbullah did last summer, the Israeli Left, the EU and the US can be expected to increase their pressure for an Israeli surrender of the Golan Heights.


Moreover, a war with Israel would shore up Assad's dwindling support at home. Sherko Abbas, a Kurdish-Syrian exile living in the US, heads the Kurdistan National Assembly of Syria. He explains that due to Syria's economic weakness and the Assad government's profligate corruption, the regime is widely despised by its Syrian subjects. According to Abbas, the organized domestic opposition to the regime crosses ethnic lines and includes Kurds, Druse, Alawites, and even members of Assad's family clan.


Three years ago, regime-sponsored Sunni thugs attacked Kurdish soccer fans in Dayz az Zawr, a Kurdish city along the border with Iraq. The attack led to three days of Kurdish anti-regime riots. Rioters destroyed regime monuments and burned government offices. Brutally quelled, the riots left 85 Kurds dead, hundreds wounded and thousands imprisoned.


Numbering between 2.5-3 million, Kurds make up some 15 percent of the Syrian population. On Monday, hundreds of thousands of Kurds flocked to cemeteries to publicly commemorate the anniversary of the riots. As Abbas sees it, the fact that the Kurds were unafraid to publicly commemorate their uprising is proof of the regime's weakness.


Most Israeli politicians claim that were the regime to be overthrown, it would be replaced by the Muslim Brotherhood. The specter of an Islamist government arising in Syria is seen as sufficient reason for the Israeli government to do nothing to destabilize the Assad regime despite its strategic partnership with Iran.


Abbas disputes this view. He claims that the Muslim Brotherhood is a spent force in Syria. "If the Brotherhood were capable of replacing the regime, it would have overthrown it when there was a chance in 2004," he argues.


To offset his regime's unpopularity, over the past few years Assad has imported more than 100,000 "immigrants" from Iran. These new Persian-speaking Syrians are keen to influence their adopted society. To this end, they have built new Shi'ite mosques throughout the country and are paying Syrians to convert to Shi'ite Islam.


According to Abbas, the regime has settled its new loyalists in Damascus, Latakiya, Homs and Aleppo. All these areas - in close proximity to Lebanon and Israel - are of strategic importance to the regime.


By the same token, repeated press reports from Syria over the past year indicate that Assad replaced his Syrian security detail with a new presidential protection force comprised of members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hizbullah.


With Syria clearly on war footing, there are several moves Israel must make right now. Militarily, Israel must prepare for war. The IDF should be pre-positioning equipment in the Golan Heights, training its reserves and regular forces for war, and updating its doctrine for fighting in the Golan Heights. So too, municipal authorities should be readying their bomb shelters for another war and preparing contingencies to evacuate civilians from the North.


If Syria does initiate hostilities, the IDF's goal must be to destroy the Syrian military and avoid a stalemate at all costs.


Diplomatically, Israel must work to cancel the diplomatic gains that Syria made this week. The goal must be to return Syria to the international isolation it has been relegated to since it engineered Hariri's murder.


Israel must also identify and assist forces in Syria working to undermine and topple the regime. Last week the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee invited Syria's US-based agent Ibrahim Suleiman, who held contacts with the far-left former director-general of the Foreign Ministry Alon Liel, to address its members. That invitation should be rescinded. Rather than Suleiman, the Knesset should invite regime opponents to speak to its members.


Working with the Kurdish opposition, the US-based Center for Democracy in the Middle East operates a satellite television station that runs limited broadcasts into Syria in Kurdish, Arabic and Persian. The station educates its viewers about the regime's corruption, suppression of human rights and democracy. It calls for peaceful coexistence with Israel and the rest of Syria's neighbors. Israel should be helping to fund, expand and run these broadcasts.


For its part, the regime itself announced this week that it is planning to launch a satellite television station that will advance the Syrian-Iranian line to the Arab world. Imagine how refreshing it would be for audiences to have the opportunity to watch something other than jihad on television.


In all its dealings with Syria, Israel must understand that today Syria is a clear enemy whose interests are diametrically opposed to the interests of the Jewish state. As a result, in all arenas and at all times, Israel should be working to weaken and destabilize the regime. There is much it can do to advance this purpose.


Unfortunately, until the current government is replaced, it is hard to imagine how this can happen.

Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.

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March 12, 2007, 10:03 PM

Lame ducks and sitting ducks

Last November 26, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ordered the IDF to withdraw its forces from Gaza. Sounding oddly triumphant, Olmert announced that he had reached a cease-fire with the Palestinians. The strangeness of his statement became apparent when just hours later Sderot absorbed yet another bombardment of rockets from Gaza.
 

And as the IDF grudgingly withdrew its forces mid-mission, the Palestinians established the rules that they and Olmert have followed ever since. They attack Israel and prepare for war, and Israel helps them by giving them money, negotiating with them and taking no steps to defend itself or its citizens.


The strange agreement was announced three days before US President George W. Bush snubbed Olmert when he demurred from either visiting Israel or visiting with Olmert during his trip to Amman, Jordan. In the four months since Olmert forced the IDF to stand down, the IDF, the Shin Bet, and even the media have warned both Olmert and the public that Syrian, Iranian and Lebanese-Hizbullah trainers, engineers, commanders and advanced anti-air and anti-tank missiles have been brought into Gaza.


The foreign terror masters and their Palestinian counterparts have used the respite that Olmert provided them to build what Shin Bet Director Yuval Diskin has referred to as "warrens" of tunnels and fortifications along Gaza's borders with Egypt and with Israel. Like Hizbullah in Lebanon, operating from these fortifications, the Palestinians will be able to attack IDF ground forces and aircraft when they are finally permitted to defend southern Israel from attack.


So thanks to Olmert's unilateral cease-fire, the Palestinians have upgraded their capabilities. Whereas before Israel withdrew its forces and civilians from Gaza in August and September 2005, the Palestinians operated as low-level terrorist cells, today they field bona fide terror armies that are capable of conducting coordinated, multi-layered operations.


YET THE Palestinians' avid preparations for war are apparently irrelevant to all concerned. In the past week alone, we have seen the US, Israel and the Arab world in the throes of a diplomatic frenzy that would make it seem as though the coming war was nothing but a joke.


Last Wednesday, Jordan's King Abdullah addressed a joint session of the US Congress. Abdullah came to the US at an interesting moment in the history of his own kingdom. The same day that Abdullah told US lawmakers that Israel is the source of all the misfortunes in the world, or as he put it, "The wellspring of regional division, the source of resentment and frustration far beyond, is the denial of justice and peace in Palestine," his state prosecutor announced the arrest of three al-Qaida terrorists. The men were arrested for plotting to assassinate Bush during his visit to Amman on November 29 and for plotting to bomb the US embassy in Amman.


What is interesting about the announcement, coming as it did the day that Abdullah spoke to the Congress and ate a private dinner with the president, is that it shows the mendacity of Abdullah's contention.


Israel is not responsible for the fact that Jordan has a huge problem with al-Qaida. Moreover, with a population that is more than 70 percent Palestinian, the monarch of the Hashemite kingdom would do well to look in the mirror before declaring that the lack of Palestinian statehood has anything to do with Israel.


ACCORDING to Israel's Channel 2, Abdullah built on his "Blame the Jews" theme to great effect during his private dinner with the president. Bush was reportedly convinced by his Jordanian guest that the world will be a better, safer place if the US abandons its demand that the PA destroy the terror cells and armies operating in its territory before it commences pressure on Israel to surrender Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem to Hamas-Fatah.


Abdullah's success has had immediate significance on the ground. Just four days after the monarch's visit to Washington, Olmert announced that he is going to ignore the situation on the ground in the PA and conduct negotiations on Israeli withdrawals from Judea and Samaria with Abbas. At Sunday's cabinet meeting Olmert repeated his praise for the so-called "Saudi plan," or, alternatively, the "Arab peace initiative."


That initiative calls for Israeli surrender of Judea, Samaria, the Golan Heights and Jerusalem; Israeli acceptance of blame for the Arab world's refusal to accept the right of the Jewish people to national sovereignty; and Israeli acceptance of millions of foreign-born, hostile Arabs within its truncated borders. After Israel makes these suicidal concessions the Arab peace initiative states that the Arab world will be willing to recognize a defunct and defenseless Arab-majority State of Israel.


OLMERT AND Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni have repeatedly stated that at its meeting later in the month in Riyadh the Arab League will moderate the plan. But Jordan's Foreign Minister Abdullah Khatib said Sunday that there would be no changes of any kind made in the plan.


Hours after Olmert praised the Arab plan for Israel's destruction, he met with PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. Olmert's office tried to put a positive spin on the meeting by loudly repeating Abbas's empty pledge to work to bring about the release of IDF Cpl. Gilad Shalit, who has been held hostage by Palestinian terrorists in Gaza since June.


But the fact of the matter is that the content of the Olmert-Abbas meeting represented nothing less than an Israeli diplomatic capitulation to Hamas. This capitulation is no less dangerous to Israel's national security than Olmert's acquiescence to Hamas's military transformation of Gaza into a mini-Lebanon, replete with Iranian and Syrian military advisers.


Under orders from Bush, Olmert agreed Sunday to abandon Israel's demand that the PA fight terror and expunge all terror elements from its midst as a necessary precondition for further Israeli concessions. For their part, the Palestinians responded to Olmert's query regarding how they had used the $100 million that Israel gave them by demanding more money.


And while Olmert was happy to lie to the public and claim that Abbas had agreed to end the rocket attacks on the Western Negev, he knows full well that he won't. Indeed, the only thing that was announced about the meeting that was true is that Olmert has agreed to negotiate with the Palestinians and the Arabs on the basis of the Arab initiative, which is based on the proposition that Israel essentially has no right to exist.


SPEAKING on Israel Radio on Monday morning, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said that Israel and the US are working in pure harmony in formulating their policies regarding the Palestinians, as well as Syria. And this is no doubt true. Both Israel and the US are pretending that it is possible to make a distinction between Abbas and Hamas, even though in the aftermath of last month's agreement between Fatah and Hamas in Mecca Abbas now acts at the pleasure of Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal.


Perhaps the only bright spot for Israeli diplomacy since the onset of the Palestinian jihad in 2000 has been the US and European willingness to make a distinction between the Fatah terror group and the Hamas terror group.


It is true that Fatah, which receives at least 40 percent of its finances from Iran and has killed more Israelis over the past seven years than Hamas, is unworthy of the international legitimacy it has enjoyed. But in refusing to directly fund and support Hamas, the US, Israel and Europe were at least agreed that some Palestinian terror groups were beyond the pale.


This Israeli diplomatic asset was destroyed by a combination of Arab perfidy and Israeli incompetence in the aftermath of last month's Mecca agreement. In Mecca, Abbas agreed to a Hamas takeover of the PA. He agreed to become a Hamas figurehead whose main task is to restore Western funding of the Hamas-led PA.


Rather than point this out and so wrest away Fatah's international legitimacy, Israel has allowed Fatah to do Hamas's bidding and act as a conduit toward the international legitimization of the jihadist movement.


PERHAPS what is most interesting about the diplomatic maneuvering taking place today is that all
four main actors carrying it out are advancing aims inimical to their national or organizational interests. Israel and the US's security interests, like those of Jordan, are harmed rather than advanced by the empowerment of Hamas. As for Abbas, Fatah's fiduciary interests are harmed by the transfer of power to Hamas.


So why are these men behaving as they are?


The answer to that apparently is to be found in a characteristic shared by Bush, Olmert, Abdullah and Abbas. All of them lead without the support of their people. All of the men, in engaging in near-manic diplomatic wrangling, are advancing the aims of neither peace nor security. They act as they do not because they believe in what they are doing - indeed, none of them could possibly believe in what he is doing. Rather, they are doing this because they want us to ignore the fact that in Bush's and Olmert's cases they are lame ducks, and in Abdullah's and Abbas's cases, they are sitting ducks.

Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.

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March 8, 2007, 9:51 PM

Three cheers for Israeli democracy

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is certain that he has nothing to be ashamed of. As the first Israeli leader to have led the country to military defeat, Olmert is proud of his performance in office and thinks that we should be, too.


Thursday, Ha'aretz reported the gist of Olmert's February 1 testimony before the Winograd Committee which he appointed to investigate the government and IDF's (mis)handling of the war last summer against Iran's Lebanese proxy Hizbullah. The Ha'aretz story was one of only a handful of reports detailing testimony brought before the commission and so it is reasonable to assume that Olmert's office, rather than the commission members, was the source of the story. Olmert's advisers presumably believe that publishing their spin on his testimony will deflect criticism away from him and onto the IDF and so buy the premier more time in office in spite of the fact that only 3 percent of the public supports him.


In his testimony before his hand-picked investigators, Olmert claimed that last March he had approved a contingency plan for war against Hizbullah in the event that Hizbullah abducted IDF soldiers along the Lebanese border. Those plans, Olmert claimed, involved the conducting of an air campaign and a small-scale ground campaign against Hizbullah with the goal of destroying its missile arsenal and forcing it to disarm in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1559.


Olmert stated that he only ordered the helter-skelter large-scale, inconclusive 48-hour ground offensive at the end of the war because the IDF's small-scale ground operations until that time had been unsuccessful. He ordered the large-scale offensive, in which 33 soldiers were killed just before their comrades were ordered to retreat, because he wanted to get a better cease-fire resolution at the UN Security Council. This is the case, he argues, in spite of the fact that the Security Council had already unanimously passed the resolution before the offensive began.


"Improved" Security Council Resolution 1701 is hailed by Olmert and his colleagues Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Amir Peretz as a brilliant, pro-Israel document that was well worth the sacrifice. They claim this in spite of the fact that 1701 makes no mention of either Iran or Syria; treats Israel, a UN member nation, and Hizbullah, an illegal terrorist organization, as equals; treats the Saniora Government in Lebanon which collaborated throughout the war with Hizbullah as a positive force; enhances the role of UNIFIL in spite of the fact that its forces reported IDF troop movements in real time on their Web site; and has enabled Hizbullah to rearm in broad daylight.


Olmert's testimony to the Winograd Commission is interesting for two reasons. First, if Olmert was telling the truth then, far from clearing his name, he incriminated himself. By March 2006, the IDF had war-gamed his chosen strategy of an air campaign with a limited ground component. The strategy had failed. The fact that he chose it anyway casts doubt on his competence to lead the country in war. Moreover, while the public understood just days after the war broke out that it was imperative to call up the reserves and launch a large-scale ground offensive, Olmert clung to his failed air-based strategy until the end stages of the war. He called up the reservists so late that they had insufficient time to train for their missions.


Olmert's testimony, like his office's apparent decision to leak it to the media, is also interesting for the arrogance it betrayed. Olmert told us his version of his testimony because he thought we would accept it without question. If he had thought we would question him, it is hard to imagine he would have revealed what he said because his defenses are so easily taken apart.


Indeed, within hours of the Ha'aretz report, MK Yuval Steinitz, the former chairman of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, did just that when he told Israel Radio how strange Olmert's statements are. If he ordered the IDF to prepare for war, Steinitz asked, why did the IDF do nothing to prepare for war? If he had a plan to respond to the abduction of IDF soldiers with a large-scale military campaign, then why did he slash the IDF's budget by a half a billion shekels two months before the war?


With 57 percent of Israelis praying for new elections, it is hard to see how Olmert and his colleagues can ever regain the public trust. But the fact that their careers are about to end, while no doubt tragic for them, is a happy occasion for Israeli society as a whole and a great victory for Israeli democracy.


It is because of the openness of Israeli society that we are able to have a public debate about what happened last summer in Lebanon and so identify those at fault and the notions that led them to their failures. And it is only by properly identifying both the failed officials and their failed ideas that the State of Israel will be able to safeguard its security in the future.


WITH AN eye towards safeguarding Israel's security, it is instructive to compare Olmert's political woes versus Israeli society's democratic resilience to the panicked atmosphere in Iran this week in the aftermath of former deputy defense minister and former Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commander Ali Rez Asgari's apparent defection to the West.


The IRGC is responsible for both Iran's nuclear weapons program and its terror armies. Its forces reportedly both develop and guard Iran's nuclear installations. As to terror, the IRGC is in direct command of Hizbullah, Islamic Jihad and the Mahdi Army in Iraq. It exerts a large degree of control and influence over other groups like al-Qaida, Fatah and Hamas which receive money, training, arms and logistical support from the IRGC.


In light of the IRGC's central role in the Iranian regime's most secret endeavors, there can be little doubt that Asgari's information will have strategic value for the US, Israel and other Western countries in assessing Iran's plans, capabilities and logistics.


Here it is useful to compare Teheran's hysteria over Asgari's defection with Israel's muted reaction when IDF (res.) Col. and would-be drug dealer Elhanan Tannenbaum was abducted by Hizbullah to Lebanon in 2000. As a senior reserves officer, Tanenbaum was privy to top secret information relating to the IDF's Artillery Corps where he served. But in spite of the clear damage that Tannenbaum no doubt wrought during his years of captivity, he did not have the capability to do anywhere near the level of damage to Israel's weapons' systems as Asgari apparently can cause for Iran. No doubt, if a member of the IDF's General Staff were abducted by Iran, he too would be capable of causing far less strategic damage to Israel than Asgari can cause to the mullahs.


The reason that Israeli commanders who fall into enemy hands can harm Israel's national security less that an Iranian commander who defects to the West can harm the mullahs is because Israel is an open and free society and Iran is a closed and unfree society. In free societies, much of what would be considered top secret information in a closed society is openly debated. Senior officials, who in a closed society like Iran are above scrutiny, are under constant scrutiny in Israel. Criticism of policies - which, as the case of Olmert's political demise makes clear - is necessary for correcting mistakes and moving forward, is the stock-in-trade of open societies. In closed societies, those that criticize policies risk death, torture and imprisonment for their actions.


Because open societies like Israel are information societies, their strength is based not on hiding information from their citizens but in galvanizing their citizens' knowledge and talents to progress and defend themselves. In contrast, since by their nature closed societies maintain control by concentrating power and information in the hands of as few people as possible, a member of the powerful few who defects to an open society can do a great deal of damage to the regime.


By the same token, since the main precondition for progress in open societies is public debate, when Israeli students protest against government policies, no one worries that their protests will destroy the regime. But in closed societies, criticism of the regime is liable to open a Pandora's Box that can bring about the regime's overthrow.


That this is the case is obvious when observing the mullahs' obsession with both quelling dissent and preventing the fact that most sectors of Iranian society oppose their rule from being reported by the media.


In this vein, Asgari's defection was not the only setback the ayatollahs suffered this week. The broadcast of a massive student protest against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during his recent visit to Teheran University was another major blow to the regime. The footage, which was broadcast on France 2, was taken by cellular phone video cameras. It showed heroic students standing on stage next to Ahmadinejad calling him a dictator and daring him to arrest them, as hundreds in the audience cheered them on while burning Ahmadinejad's photograph.


For the regime in Teheran, the widely circulated film was a huge disaster. Now it is clear to the world that although the mullahs may present a unified front, their people do not support them.


Here it is important to emphasize that the mullahs' panic will in no way impact their commitment to carrying out a nuclear holocaust. What it does show however, is that the regime is anything but all-powerful. Indeed it is highly susceptible to a concerted campaign to overthrow it.


Like all closed societies, the strength of the Iranian regime is built on the twin foundations of internal repression and external aggression. But also like in all closed societies, the mullahs suffer from an inability to identify mistakes and correct them or build their future on the power of their people who hate them.


When the Olmert government's political collapse and Iran's strategic setbacks are taken together, one can safely say that this has been a fairly good week. Olmert's exposure of his incompetence has set the course for his government's replacement by a government capable of defending Israel.
Then too, the exposure of Iran's inherent weaknesses by Asgari and the students at Teheran University points out a clear path towards preventing the regime from carrying out it planned nuclear holocaust while liberating the Iranian people from its tyranny.

Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.
 

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March 5, 2007, 9:42 PM

Israel's man in Mecca

Israel's man in Mecca is at it again.

Five years ago, for the first time, the Palestinians were beginning to feel diplomatic pressure. In January 2002, the IDF's interception of the Gaza-bound Karine-A Iranian weapons ship in the Red Sea exposed the close relationship that Fatah terror chief and Palestinian Authority chairman Yasser Arafat had developed with the mullahs in Teheran. In February 2002, a little-known al-Qaida terrorist by the name of Abu Musab Zarqawi, who had set up shop in Iran after fleeing US forces in Afghanistan dispatched three Palestinian terrorists to Israel to conduct terror operations. The men were arrested en route in Turkey.


By February and March 2002, Israel had accumulated and disseminated a critical mass of evidence demonstrating that the Palestinian jihad against Israel was being massively funded by the same states that were funding al-Qaida. Israel had also shown that far from being interested in peace or in combating terror, Arafat, his official PA militias, and his Fatah terror group were directing the jihad.


With the foreign-funded Palestinian terror machine on the verge of being delegitimized, something had to be done to change the subject.


Enter Saudi Arabia.


As one of the PA's chief terror financiers; one of the epicenters of jihadist propaganda and recruitment; and the Arab state with the most influence over the Bush administration, the Saudis had an interest in preventing the US from acting on the knowledge that there is no difference between al-Qaida and Hamas or between the PA and the Taliban-led regime in Afghanistan.


And so, then crown-prince, (and current King) Abdullah invited The New York Times' in-house peace-processor Tom Friedman to Riyadh for dinner. After serving his guest the customary royal meal of freshly slaughtered lamb and sticky rice, Abdullah informed Friedman that if Israel weren't so insistent on defending its citizens from murder, he would introduce a peace plan he happened to have sitting in his desk already.


That plan was first fully enunciated at the Arab League Summit in Beirut on March 27, 2002. The day was a watershed day. In Netanya, 30 Jews were murdered at the Park Hotel by a jihadist suicide bomber while celebrating the Passover Seder. The massacre caused the Sharon government to finally launch its limited counter-terror offensive - Operation Defensive Shield - in Judea and Samaria after more than a year of stalling.

On March 27, 2002, two conferences convened in Beirut. In the first conference, terror masters from Hizbullah, al-Qaida, Hamas, Fatah, and Islamic Jihad convened to discuss collaboration and strategy. At the second conference, the leaders of the Arab League agreed to accept the Saudi initiative.


AS PUBLISHED the next day, the Saudi plan includes two stages. In the first stage, Israel divests itself of defensible borders by surrendering the Golan Heights, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria. It also allows itself to become inundated with millions of hostile foreign-born Arabs who call themselves Palestinian refugees.


After Israel completes these tasks, the Arab world will agree to sign peace agreements with Israel and have "normal," (but not diplomatic), relations with the indefensible Jewish state. Given that it was acceded to by such terror states as Syria, Libya, Sudan and Saddam Hussein's Iraq, it should surprise no one that the Saudi plan included no mention of the need to end terrorism, incitement or jihadist indoctrination and violence in its pledge to have normal ties with Israel.


While the international media and the leftist Israeli media greeted the Saudi plan enthusiastically, then prime minister Ariel Sharon did everything he could to discredit the initiative. Sharon understood that it was a tactical ploy to delegitimize Israel's military campaign against the Palestinian jihad and to rebuild the legitimacy of the PA.


From a strategic vantage point, both Sharon and then foreign minister Shimon Peres made it clear that Israel did not accept the Arab view that Israel must surrender all the lands it gained control of in the Six Day War as a precondition for peace. That is, both Sharon and Peres were quick to point out that the plan itself, if implemented by Israel would be a strategic catastrophe for the Jewish state and was therefore unacceptable as a basis for negotiations.


Then too, the Sharon government rejected the sequencing of events, with Israel giving up the store in exchange for vague, unverifiable commitments to an unclear peace sometime down the road. Indeed, President Moshe Katsav invited then crowned-prince Abdullah to visit Israel as a means of calling the Saudi bluff. As Katsav put it, "assuming that the Crown Prince is interested in promoting [his peace plan], the most natural way to do this is by meeting the Israeli government."


With Israel's rejection of the plan, and with the documents the IDF secured during Operation Defensive Shield proving definitively that Arafat was a terrorist, the Saudi plan was laid to the side. But now, five years later, Saudi Arabia is again placing it on the international agenda.


SAUDI ARABIA'S motivations today are as clear as they were five years ago. Then, in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks, the Saudis wanted to block the US from recognizing that the jihad against Israel is part and parcel of the global jihad against the US and the rest of the free world. Today, against the backdrop of the Iranian nuclear threat - which also makes clear that the war against Israel is simply a front in the larger jihad - the Saudis again wish to convince the Americans not to view Israel as a strategic ally.


The Saudis reportedly raised President George W. Bush's hackles by mediating last month's Mecca agreement between Hamas and Fatah which transformed the Iranian and Saudi-financed Fatah terror group into a junior partner in the Iranian and Saudi-financed Hamas terror group's government. The Saudis, like the Palestinians wish for the West to renew its underwriting of the PA in spite of the fact that it no longer makes any bones about being a terror regime.


The easiest way to do that is to pretend that there is a possibility of renewing the "peace process" by putting a deal on the table that Israel will have to reject. With Israel rejecting "peace plans," the Saudis and their counterparts in the Arab League will say that there is no distinction between peace rejecting Israel and peace rejecting Hamas and therefore the West - and the US in particular - should recognize Hamas and give it lots of money.


So in resubmitting their "peace plan," the Saudis are simply acting as they have always acted - as Israel's enemy and as a country dedicated to preventing the US from basing its Middle East policy on a recognition of the basic fact that Arab and Islamic hostility towards the US stems from the same source as Arab and Islamic hostility towards Israel.


WHAT IS new in the current iteration of the Saudi game is Israel's response. Rather than reject the plan as their predecessors did, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni are embracing it as a basis for negotiations while applauding the Saudis for their "positive" role in the region.


In press interviews last week, Livni said that Israel's only real quibble is that the Saudi plan stipulates that Israel has to allow millions of hostile foreign Arabs to move here. If they would just fix that one little thing, which she refers to as "an absolute red line," (apparently as opposed to a flexible red line), then we could start getting down to business.


Aside from that, Livni said that the plan "is positive in my view." As she put it, "The initiative does discuss the 1967 lines, but it would be great if we were in a position where the conflict was a border dispute."


For his part, not only does Olmert consider the Saudi plan to be a positive development, according to Haaretz, Olmert so values Saudi Arabia that he decided not to reject the Mecca deal for fear that doing so would upset his friends in Riyadh.


Olmert's aversion to annoying Riyadh reportedly stems from his desire to keep the Saudis on board in opposing Iran's nuclear weapons program. If this is true, then Olmert is as much of a fool as Livni, who claims to truly believe that the Saudi plan can be the basis for negotiations.


In Olmert's case, he apparently has failed to understand that an Iranian nuclear bomb will imperil Saudi Arabia regardless of its impact on Israel. The Saudis would have to oppose Iran's nuclear program even if Israel were to destroy the PA and send its leaders - from Hamas and Fatah alike - packing to Mecca. Israel doesn't have to pay anything for Saudi support of actions to destroy Iran's nuclear installations.


So it is possible that Olmert and Livni are supporting the Saudis because they are obtuse. It is equally possible that they are using the Saudi plan as a diversion to shift public attention away from the fact that they led the country to defeat in the war against Iran's Lebanese proxy last summer and that due to their continued incompetence, Israel currently faces the prospect of a new war starting at any moment.


Whatever the cause of their support for the Saudis, that support is but another sign that they are incompetent to lead the country.

Oeiginally published in The Jerusalem Post. 

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March 2, 2007, 8:57 PM

Symposium: Israel's Test FrontPageMagazine.com

What are the dire threats Israel now faces? Will it be able to equip itself to face them? To explore these questions with us today, Frontpage Symposium has assembled a distinguished panel. Our guests are:


Rael Jean Isaac, the editor of Outpost, the newsletter of Americans for a Safe Israel. She is the author of two books about Israeli politics: Israel Divided: Ideological Politics in the Jewish State and Parties and Politics of Israel.


Caroline Glick, the deputy managing editor of the Jerusalem Post and a senior columnist at the Jerusalem Post and at Makor Rishon Hebrew newspaper. She also serves as the senior fellow for Middle East Affairs at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, DC.



David Keyes, assisted a former Israeli ambassador to the UN, specialized on terrorism at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and has written for the Jerusalem Post.  He co-authored papers with the former UN ambassador and a former head of Israeli Military Intelligence Assessment.   His most recent study about al-Qaeda in Gaza was published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

 

 Kenneth Levin, a clinical instructor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School, a Princeton-trained historian, and a commentator on Israeli politics. He is the author of The Oslo Syndrome: Delusions of a People Under Siege .

 

 and P. David Hornik, a freelance writer and translator living in Tel Aviv.


FP: Rael Isaac, David Hornik, Caroline Glick, David Keyes and Kenneth Levin, welcome to Frontpage Symposium.

 

David Hornik, let's begin with you.

 

Kindly provide a foundation for our discussion: w hat are the greatest threats Israel is facing right now?

 

Hornik: First and foremost, of course, the Iranian nuclear threat. Tragically linked to it is that, at this time of all times, Israel has an incompetent government including a defense minister universally regarded as unqualified for the job and a prime minister with no vision or direction and no background in security. More optimistically: there are efforts both outside and inside his party to remove Defense Minister Peretz; Prime Minister Olmert is under investigation on corruption charges; and the whole government may not last too long.


Israel also faces an ongoing, massive military build-up by Hamas and associated terror organizations in Gaza and by Hezbollah in Lebanon . Now that Hezbollah is in effect shielded by enhanced UNIFIL and Lebanese forces, it is hard for Israel to do much about the Hezbollah build-up short of launching another war. This threat would, of course, gravely intensify should the Saniora government fall to the axis spearheaded by Hezbollah; it would mean having a mini-Iran on Israel's northern border.


Israel does, however, have the capacity to stop the Gaza build-up by sealing off the Gaza-Sinai border and cleaning up Gaza itself. But its government proclaimed a "ceasefire" last November whose sole consequences have been (1) to allow Israeli citizens to be shelled at no cost to the aggressors and (2) to allow this build-up to proceed.


Apart from Iran , Israel also faces threats particularly from the Arab states Syria and Egypt --both because of the direct and indirect aid they supply to the terror organizations surrounding Israel, and because of their own hostility and military build-ups. Egypt has been relentlessly building up its armed forces and absorbing state-of-the-art American weaponry since the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. Syria is militarily weaker but its ballistic-missile threat to Israel (along with Egypt 's) is very serious.


In addition to these more or less external threats, the Israeli Arab community is growing increasingly hostile to Israel and many of its members--small numbers in terms of percentage, but extremely dangerous in terms of their immediate proximity--have been involved in abetting or perpetrating terror attacks. As for the West Bank, it is teeming with terror activity at all times but at present the Israeli security forces are doing a great job of keeping a lid on it. How long that success can continue is uncertain.


In the face of all these dangers, the question is whether Israel can overcome its own dangerous tendencies to delusion, wishful thinking, and appeasement that have been encouraged by its mostly incompetent leaders since 1992. In March 2006 Israelis, after all, elected the incompetent government they now so lament being saddled with. The fortitude of the Israeli army and citizenry during last summer's Lebanon war showed the other side of the Israeli psyche, which remains strong, tough, and determined. Israel will not cope well with the military and terrorist dangers it faces until and unless this government is removed and replaced by people who understand the Middle East, security, and world politics and are capable of coherent and effective action.

 

FP: Dr. Levin, Mr. Hornik mentions your expertise: Israelis' dangerous tendencies to delusion. What is the current state of that phenomenon in the context of the threats Mr. Hornik points to?

 

Levin: David Hornik did an excellent job of reviewing the external threats currently facing Israel.


For each of these threats, with the possible exception of the existential challenge posed by the Iranian regime, there are related Israeli self-delusions. On the Palestinian front, Israeli leaders continue to embrace PA president Mahmoud Abbas as a "peace partner" and are eager to make concessions to him even as Abbas has yet to declare acceptance of the legitimacy of Israel as a Jewish state, still insists on the Palestinian "right of return," which is a formula for Israel's dissolution, still uses the media, mosques and schools under his control to delegitimize Israel, denigrate Jews, and demand Israel's ultimate destruction, and has yet to end terrorist operations against Israel by forces affiliated with his Fatah party. In the interests of pursuing their visions of "peace," Israeli government leaders are virtually silent about the hostile indoctrination and acts of terror emanating from Abu Mazen and his associates.


Although Israel has a peace agreement with Egypt, that country has continued to reject implementation of virtually all the "normalization" provisions that were part of the Camp David peace accords, and Egyptian government-controlled media are even more incessant and more rabid in their anti-Israel and indeed anti-Semitic drumbeat than they were before the "peace" agreement. The Mubarak regime still finds it useful to deflect domestic discontent by focusing public attention on supposed external threats and by demonizing Israel and, in fact, the United States as well. An inevitable consequence has been intense public hostility in Egypt toward both nations. In addition, as David Hornik notes, Egypt has a much improved military capable of turning hostile words into hostile deeds. Yet Israeli officials are silent on all of this and insist on characterizing Egypt as a "moderating force" vis-à-vis the Arab-Israeli conflict.


A recent variant of Israeli self-delusion has emerged in the context of comprehension of the Middle East as now divided between "radical" forces - Iran, Syria, and their clients such as Hezbollah and Hamas - and "moderate" forces, including Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Israeli leaders have recently spoken of a newly moderate Saudi Arabia ending its previous hostility to the Jewish state, and some even argue for embrace of the 2002 Saudi peace plan as a basis for "peace" negotiations in view of the imagined change in Saudi views. Ignored is the fact that, while Saudi Arabia no doubt does see Iran as a greater threat than Israel, this has not changed Saudi promotion of an extreme Wahhabi brand of Islam - with its vehement anti-Jewish and anti-Christian message - in mosques and schools throughout Asia, Africa, Europe and the Americas.


It has not changed Saudi support for terrorist groups targeting Israel. It has not changed Saudi dedication to the goal of Israel's dissolution. In fact, since the Khomeini revolution in Iran in 1979 and the subsequent Iranian Hajj attacks in Mecca, the Saudi response to the Iranian challenge has not been moderation of its policies and its attitudes towards Israel and the West but rather a more aggressive promotion of Wahhabi extremism worldwide to compete with the Shi'a extremism being exported by the Iranian mullahs. Yet Israeli leaders look at Saudi words and deeds and somehow detect a moderate and friendly message in them, and construe a limited and transient convergence of interests as reason to make permanent concessions to a party that remains, beyond the interests of the moment, aggressively and murderously hostile.


We see some Israeli leaders no less dangerously delusional with regard to Syria, eagerly offering to surrender the Golan Heights to Syria in return for "peace." This as Syria has demonstrated no moderating of its alliance with Iran, its support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and other terror organizations, its aggressive designs against Lebanon, or its dedication to Israel's destruction. This as there are myriad reasons why Syrian president Assad is neither willing nor able to give Israel genuine peace. This as the Golan Heights controls Israel's major source of fresh water. In addition, the Heights are perhaps the most strategic piece of real estate in the Middle East and, despite overly sanguine claims by some Israeli military officers and others, Israel has no way of compensating for the strategic damage that its surrender would entail. (Nor can Israel create an equivalent of the 100 mile wide demilitarized zone that has existed between Israel and Egypt since the Camp David agreements.) This also as Israel has an excellent claim to permanent sovereignty over the Golan Heights on the basis of international law and precedent.


All of these self-delusions by Israeli leaders reflect wishful thinking; all reflect a desire to control a situation - movement towards genuine peace - over which Israel has no control. Peace will come on the Arabs' timetable, not Israel's; and for the foreseeable future hostility to Israel, and indeed to all Middle East minorities, will continue to have too much usefulness to Arab regimes to be given up.


Israelis are capable of living with this painful reality and defending themselves against any aggression by its neighbors, as long as they retain the will to do so. David Hornik rightly notes that last summer's war demonstrated the fortitude of Israel's people. Unfortunately, too many of its political leaders, as well as the nation's cultural, academic and journalist elites, are, in the words of Prime Minister Olmert, "tired of fighting... tired of being courageous... tired of winning... tired of defeating our enemies..." This dangerous mind-set, the desperate wish for an end to the hostility of surrounding states, and the concomitant embrace of delusions of peace, are as great a threat to Israel as the strategic challenges posed by its enemies.


FP: Thank you Dr. Levin.


Rael Jean Isaac?


Isaac:I must second what both David Hornik and Kenneth Levin have said.  The external dangers are massively compounded by the pursuit of successive Israeli governments of the will o' the wisp of peace with Arab neighbors.  In the case of the emergent threat from Israeli Arabs, one could argue the dangers have largely been created by Israel's self-destructive course of appeasement.  This was easily predictable--indeed the newsletter which I edit, Outpost, foresaw this impact of the Oslo Accords back in 1995 observing that "the territorial dwarfing of Israel will lead to an immensely powerful release of anti-Israel and anti-Jewish sentiment among Israel's Arab citizens." 


On one matter I am less sanguine than Mr. Hornik. While I would agree that replacing the shiftless regime headed by Ehud Olmert is essential, it is difficult to have hope that it will be replaced by what Mr. Hornik describes as people "capable of coherent and effective action."  Israel's leaders play musical chairs and  Olmert will almost certainly be replaced by Benjamin Netanyahu, who admittedly understands the Middle East and world politics far better than Mr. Olmert, but nonetheless, as Prime Minister,  held out the same delusional promise of "peace" and furthered the Oslo process (through more concessions at the Wye Conference). 


In Israel it was long thought that the pursuit of peace was a stroke of tactical brilliance, a no-cost way to pile up brownie points.  Israel proved to the world that it was the "good guy," willing to make major sacrifices while the Arabs refused all compromise.  But in fact, the pursuit of peace has been catastrophic for Israel.  That's because when elected Israeli leaders hold up the promise that peace can be achieved, they are impelled to act in ways that supposedly will advance it.  In 1992 Labor, under Yitzhak Rabin, striving to overthrow the Likud government of Yitzhak Shamir, campaigned on the promise that if elected, it would achieve peace within the year. When Labor won, its leaders felt they had to produce something quickly. The result was the catastrophe of Oslo.


From then on leaders of both parties would continue to offer the same promise of peace. Netanyahu did so in 1996. Barak followed up his campaign promise to bring peace by offering Arafat the territorial store, even including a limited Arab right of return.  For his pains he got a renewed Arab intifada. Sharon promised to bring peace.  He delivered "disengagement," a despicable euphemism for the destruction of Jewish settlements. Those once-thriving Jewish settlements in Gaza have become the launching pads for rockets raining down on Israeli communities in the south. The small town of  Sderot is most often in the news, but Ashkelon , with major military and economic assets, is also under fire. Simply from a tactical point of view, the retreat from Gaza was an act of incredible stupidity -- and this from Ariel Sharon, Israel's most revered general.  


Despite the failure, over and over again, of retreat and concessions, Israeli leaders seem to suffer from a form of obsessive compulsive behavior, coming up with more and more of the same. As Kenneth Levin points out, even now the government is eager to make more concessions to Abbas and some leaders are openly talking of giving Syria the Golan. What accounts for this inability to conceive of any policy alternatives to ever more retreats on the ground, no matter how often they prove to be counterproductive?  They are a symptom of Israel's loss of  its sense of national purpose, its traditional faith in Zionism as a way in which the Jewish people would build and be rebuilt ("livnot ulehibanot"), that Jews had a historic and religious right to the Land of Israel and would be redeemed through rebuilding and restoring their ancient homeland.  The much maligned Gaza "settlers" retained this faith as do the "settlers" of Judea , Samaria and the Golan, whose homes and communities are now threatened.   They serve as a reproach to Israelis who have lost their belief in a Jewish and Zionist mission ("post-Zionists"), who turn against the best elements in their society, above all the religious Zionists who form the backbone of the settlement movement. 


Immediately after his defeat by Netanyahu in 1996, Peres had a telling exchange with an interviewer for the Israeli daily Haaretz. The interviewer asked "What happened in these elections" Peres says "We lost." The interviewer asks "Who is we?" Peres replies "We, that is the Israelis."  The interviewer follows up "And who won?  "Peres: All those who do not have an Israeli mentality.  Interviewer: "And who are they?  Peres: "Call it the Jews." 


A significant proportion of "Israelis" hold "the Jews" responsible for Arab hatred, holding fast to the delusion that it is only "settlements" that stand in the way of peace. And so the secular majority is left with "post-Zionism," (i.e. no national purpose at all), corruption, and an out-of-control court system. The Supreme Court is relied on to fashion their national morality, particularly absurd since what that Court affirms as the highest human values are the fads of a post-Western intelligentsia.


It is difficult to see how external threats can be mitigated in the absence of profound internal changes in Israel. The more Israel appeases its enemies through concessions and the promises of more concessions, the more Israel 's deterrence erodes.   Hezbollah's Nasrallah now refers to Israel as weaker than a spider's web.  But where is the change to come from?  The problem is not just the political leaders. As Kenneth Levin says, cultural, academic and journalistic elites all feed the peace at any price mood of the public. The media is almost monolithic -- Caroline Glick stands as an outstanding and brilliant exception.

 

Glick: One of the reasons that Israel finds itself in its present predicament is because its leadership -- both political and cultural -- has failed to understand one central fact and act on it in a constructive fashion. This fact is that Israel is a central front - if not the central front in the global jihad.


The fact that this is the case is made clear from a number of indicators. First, as Ken Levin rightly points out, demonization of Israel; negation of the right of the Jewish people to exist, let alone exert sovereignty over our homeland; and sponsorship through financing, training, arming and marketing of the Palestinian jihad against Israel, crosses all intra-Islamic lines. Saudi Arabia and Iran which daily compete for leadership of the Islamic world; Iran and Egypt which have not have full diplomatic relations since 1979, can all cooperate harmoniously in supporting the Palestinian war against the Jewish state.


Second, the Islamic world, whether organized in the Arab League or in the Organization of the Islamic Conference or in Islamic groups such as the Council on American-Islamic Relations, uses its refusal to accept Israel's right to exist as a rallying cry to enlist Muslims to the ranks of the global jihad whether through groups such as al Qaida or Hizbullah or Islamist cells in places like Britain and Norway.


Israel is perceived in a political sense as an American enclave in the Islamic world which must be destroyed as a first step towards the destruction of Western Civilization.


From a religious perspective, the existence of a Jewish state in what would otherwise be a wholly Islamic-ruled continent that extends from the Mediterranean Sea to Pakistan, is an insult and indeed a repudiation of the jihadist view of Islam as the religion that must dominate the world.


As noted by Ken and Rael and David already, the Israeli political and cultural elites are unwilling for a host of psychological and parochial reasons to acknowledge the war against Israel's central role in the global jihad and as a result the importance of an Israeli victory against our enemies for Western civilization as a whole.

This refusal of Israel to acknowledge the nature of the war being waged against us and the centrality of Israeli national security to the security of the West in general is raft with consequences not only for Israel but for the West in general and for America in particular.


Specifically, by presenting the war against Israel as a unique war not related to the larger jihad, the Israeli leadership obfuscates a global reality that desperately needs clarification if Israel is to survive and if the West is to persevere against the jihadist onslaught.

Israel's refusal to acknowledge the importance of its role in global security has caused successive governments to form policies like the retreats from Gaza, south Lebanon and northern Samaria that led to the creation of safe havens for both local and global jihadists from which they not only attack Israel but train to conduct attacks throughout the region and world.

By refusing to acknowledge its importance in the international fight against the global jihad, Israel's leaders have underplayed Israel's importance for US national security. Generally speaking Israeli leaders act as though the US is doing us a favor by supporting Israel militarily and diplomatically. But the fact of the matter is that Israeli defeats and general weakening are dangerous for America's national security interests both at home and around the world because Israel and the US are perceived by our common foes as two sides of the same coin.

By so obfuscating Israel's central importance to the US, Israeli leaders have played into the hands of powerful actors in the US who are intent on denying the very existence of the global jihad -- to the detriment of US national security. These actors, whose views manifested themselves most forcefully in the Baker-Hamilton report on Iraq -- seize on Israel's unwillingness to explain its importance to the US and use it to advance the false and dangerous view that the global jihad --to the extent that it exists at all -- is the Jews' fault and if Israel is simply squeezed hard enough, the Islamic world will abandon their faith and end their war against the free world.

In light of all of this it is important for Americans to understand that they cannot afford a weak Israel, one that is "tired of fighting" but rather need to support voices in Israel that are capable of making the case for a robust offensive against the forces of global jihad that seek the destruction of the Jewish state as a step towards the defeat of the US and the subjugation of Christianity.


Keyes: Many good points have been raised so far. Caroline Glick, as usual, has hit the nail on the head by reminding us that Israel is a central front—if not the central front—ine the war against Islamic fascism and global jihad.  


There is no doubt that Iran is the greatest national security threat to the state of Israel.  Two nuclear bombs would destroy Israel.  Given the overwhelming amount of evidence, anyone who doubts that Iran is actively seeking technology to build nuclear weapons is simply delusional.  Those who believe the Iranian regime is willing to forgo what it sees as the divinely inspired mission of eliminating Israel are, at best, dangerously naïve.  Those who think Iranian leaders are more worried about survival than reaching paradise and attaining Islam's ultimate victory, are not listening with open ears.  All too many Westerners fall prey to the soft bigotry that presumes men like Ahmadinejad are incapable of saying what they mean and meaning what they say. 


In 1980, Ayatollah Khomeini proclaimed "We do not worship Iran, we worship Allah.  I say, let this land [Iran] burn.  I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant."   Ayatollah Rafsanjani said that "the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything. However, it will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality." Rafsanjani also noted that 5 million Jews would die in an Iranian nuclear strike, while a mere 15 million Iranians would perish in an Israeli retaliation—as small "sacrifice" considering the over one billion Muslims worldwide.  In February of last year, a fatwa was issued in Qom allowing the use of nuclear weapons in war. 


The writing is on the wall.


Israeli experts say that Iran could go nuclear as early as 2009.  This is precisely the same year in which Ahmadinejad is reported to have said the hidden Imam will reappear.   It is also possible that Israeli estimates are off by a year—or more.  Perhaps Iran will have a nuclear bomb next year, or at least the unimpeded capacity build one.   No one really knows.  Meanwhile, European diplomacy has failed miserably.  Discussions have yielded almost nothing and Iran has never been closer to acquiring nuclear weapons.  


To allow the apocalyptical, jihadist, terrorist Iranian regime the most deadly weapons known to man, is tantamount to inviting an attack which would kill millions.  There is no other choice but to deny Iran nuclear weapons.  It seems that only America and Israel have the potential capacity and will to prevent Iran from attaining nukes.   One of these two great nations must neutralize Iran's nuclear facilities before it is too late.  This, of course, must be done in conjunction with massive funding of Iranian dissident groups and energetic support for Iranian democrats who would like nothing more than to see their oppressive regime toppled.  Regime change in Iran would be far superior to a military strike.  But, the free world simply cannot take the chance that nukes are acquired before the regime is overthrown.   Fomenting regime change by supporting democratic dissidents is a noble and important endeavor, but one with a very uncertain outcome in the near term.  Nevertheless, let us hope that the democracy clock can outpace the nuclear one.


Another dangerous regional adversary is the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah.  Their goals are crystal clear as Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah stated in 2002 "If they [Jews] all gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide."  Nasrallah also noted that Iranian and Syrian support for Hezbollah is well known by all.  "Iran assists the organization with money, weapons, and training, motivated by a religious fraternity and ethnic solidarity.   And the help is funnelled through Syria, and everybody knows it." Former Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh al-Tufeili candidly asserted "Yes, Hezbollah is a tool, and it is an integral part of the Iranian intelligence apparatus…Iran is the main nerve in the activity today in Lebanon.  All Hezbollah activity [is financed] by Iranian funds."  Most unfortunately, Hezbollah was not sufficiently defeated by Israel in the last Lebanon war and is now rearming and regrouping under cover from UN troops.  This is powder keg which will surely erupt again. 

 

Technically, Israel has peace with Egypt, and many point to this treaty as a great accomplishment which enabled an end to war.  It should be noted, however, that Israel has not been to war with Syria in equally as long, despite the lack of such a treaty.   Is it really a piece a paper that prevented war, or more likely is it the inability to wage war successfully at this time?  It is reasonable to ask what the treaty with Egypt is worth—and more to the point how long it can last—when men like Mohammed el-Katatny of Mubarak's National Democracy Party openly declare "Nothing will work with Israel except for a nuclear bomb that wipes it out of existence."  While staying in a heavily Islamist slum in Cairo recently, I saw just how deep the seeds of hatred of Jews and Israel runs.  Mein Kampf, for example, was prominently displayed at every single bookshop I visited in Egypt.  Store employees told me in Arabic that the Protocols of the Elders of Zion sells fantastically well.  I believe Saudi Arabia may be even worse in this regard than Egypt.         

 

Israel has no shortage of implacable enemies and no surplus of loyal allies.   As is so often the case, great democracies are found fighting alone against the forces of tyranny and terror.  The only long term solution to the repressive and menacing nature of Middle Eastern regimes is sustained democratization.   This requires the total political, economic, ideological, (and sometimes military) defeat of terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and authoritarian regimes like Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran.  Democracy is not only a human right, but it is the sole guarantor of lasting peace.

 

Symposium: Israel's Test: Part II
By Jamie Glazov
FrontPageMagazine.com | March 2, 2007

Hornik: While Rael Jean Isaac is right that Olmert most likely will be replaced by Netanyahu, I still have more hope in Bibi than she does. It's true that in addressing the Israeli people he sometimes disappointingly adopts a "peace" rhetoric not too different from the appeasers. It's also true that he was pushed by Clinton into concessions at the Wye Conference. But similarly, Begin was pushed around by Carter at Camp David and Shamir was pushed by Bush I and Baker into attending the Madrid Conference (a hostile gang-up against Israel that set the stage for Oslo ). Begin, Shamir, and Netanyahu all represent clear-sighted and strong people but--notwithstanding the fantasies of Israel's enemies--it is not the tiny Middle Eastern outpost of democracy that wags the superpower, but vice versa. It will be hard to reverse Israel's crisis unless its U.S. ally can at least overcome its delusional embrace of Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah movement (now officially junior partners of Hamas) as a supposed constructive force whose further empowerment in the West Bank would somehow promote Western interests. Rational Israelis and pro-Israelis need to address that front as least as much as they have to focus on Israel itself.  

Rael Jean Isaac also implies that the religious settlers in the territories are a model for the rest of Israeli society and represent the path it should follow, something I think is a psychological impossibility. For better or worse, the religious settlers are living where they do largely because of having received an intensive Jewish education as children, whereas the secular majority has received a less intensive, selective Jewish education that in most cases does not instil much interest, let alone love, in places like Hebron, Beit El, or Schechem. One might lament this and hope that it will eventually change, but for now it is the reality, and Israel 's crisis and dangers are very immediate. Most secular Israelis look at Judea and Samaria and see teeming, hostile Arab cities that they would just like to be done with (and this is also not an entirely blameworthy or anti-Zionist feeling since it's linked to Zionist demographic and democratic values). The main hope of convincing the Israeli populace to avoid further suicidal land giveaways lies in secular, rational, realistic voices like those of Netanyahu, Yuval Steinitz, or Moshe Yaalon, mainstream but sophisticated individuals who can speak convincingly to the general public about Israel's strategic and tactical vulnerabilities.


Does a reservoir of strength and realism, or potential realism, still exist among Israel's secular majority? There are strong reasons to think so. People not terminally blinded by a leftist outlook (as is only a small part of the population) now understand that the Gaza withdrawal brought a rain of Qassam fire on the surrounding communities and that ditto will be true (for starters) for a further Judea-Samaria withdrawal. From giving Netanyahu's Likud a measly 12 mandates out of 120 in the March 2006 election, Israelis are now apparently ready to elect Netanyahu handily over capitulationist competitors. This is a startling turnaround that no doubt reflects a certain amount of confusion and superficiality, but also an ability for empiricism and learning. Most of all, as I already mentioned, the summer's war in Lebanon found a populace ready to endure whatever had to be endured, and an army ready to do and sacrifice whatever had to be done and sacrificed, to defeat the enemy--understanding and accepting the implacability of the enemy, the necessity of defeating him, and the inevitability of absorbing losses while doing so. In fact, soldiers from the secular-left kibbutz movement took a dramatically disproportionate share of the casualties. One cannot hope to convert most of the kibbutz movement to political rationality, but one should be impressed that patriotic dedication remains so high even in that camp.


Whatever the undeniably great and destructive power of the leftist cultural, academic, and media elites, it has not destroyed the ability of the Israeli people to elect rational--or at least relatively rational--leaders, nor the ability of such leaders to address them, as Netanyahu has been striving to do and apparently with some effect.   


Levin: All of us seem to be in agreement that, for all the severe external threats faced by Israel, the greatest handicap to meeting those threats is the self-imposed failure of so many Israeli leaders to recognize and identify those challenges for what they are and honestly confront them.


What Caroline Glick and David Keyes point out about Israel being the front-line nation facing the global jihad that threatens the entire West is certainly correct. The failure of the Israeli government to properly conceive of and articulate Israel's position in this regard is itself symptomatic of the leadership's, and much of the Israel elites', desire to see the threats facing the nation in much less grievous terms, in the service of indulging fantasies of "peace" being readily attainable. That same mind-set has in recent decades failed to acknowledge Arab unwillingness to accept the legitimacy and rights of any minority - religious or ethnic - living among the Arabs. Israeli leaders have failed to do so because acknowledging that broad Arab intolerance would underscore the absurdity of the belief that the Arab world is presently prepared to accept the legitimacy of a Jewish state in its midst.


The current government, and the Israeli leftist elites - even at this late date, even after the catastrophic failures of the delusional Oslo path - would rather construe the Israeli right as misguided and an obstacle to peace than look open-eyed at Israel's actual predicament.


I too believe it is vital that the present Israeli government be replaced by leaders who do recognize the challenges confronting the nation, unabashedly embrace Israeli claims and the essential, inalienable rightness of the Zionist project and Jewish rights in the Jewish homeland, and are not predisposed to compromising, or to refrain from invoking, basic principles in the deluded hope that doing so will somehow help foster "peace."


With regard to the Likud leadership and Benjamin Netanyahu being able to provide such a government, there is no doubt that Netanyahu is at once fully cognizant of Israel's rights and the threats to those rights and is able to articulate both in a manner that few if any other Israelis can match. I agree with Rael Jean Isaac in her pointing out the problems with his previous stint as prime minister; his backing down on his own principles, including his principled demand for "reciprocity" from the other side before acquiescing to further Israeli concessions. Nor do I believe that those problems can be attributed simply to pressures from the Clinton administration. No doubt Netanyahu was subjected to intense ill-conceived and misguided pressures, but he could have done more to resist them, as previous Israeli prime ministers have done when pushed to accept policies that threatened vital national interests.


That said, I agree with David Hornik that Netanyahu and those around him in Likud are at present Israel's best hope; that the rightness of Netanyahu's comprehension of Israel's predicament and his ability to articulate that comprehension are vital assets. While not being blind to past performance, one can hope that he has learned from past errors and that such learning will be buttressed by assets he did not previously have but would likely be available to him now. Those assets include a much more supportive Knesset (unlike the essentially hostile Knesset that he was saddled with last time, when his election was on a ballot separate from the Knesset vote) and, at least for the next two years, an American administration that - despite problems on this front as well, such as the American embrace of Mahmoud Abbas and the pressure on Israel to join in that embrace - is much more sensitive to the mutual threats facing Israel and America, the realities of the Jewish state's geopolitical situation, and the importance of Israel's well-being to that of the United States.


The necessity of putting in place a Likud-led government goes beyond correcting the current disastrous situations in the office of the prime minister, foreign minister, defense minister. It includes redressing essential, dangerous problems in other ministries as well. Particularly crucial is education. Again, the Israeli public, and the soldiers of the IDF, demonstrated remarkable strength, determination, and dedication to the nation in the course of last summer's war. But to maintain and nurture that strength and dedication requires people's continuing to know why they are in Israel, the Jewish right to be here, the inalienable legitimacy of the Zionist claim. The Left, in the context of the madness of Oslo, sought to dilute and distort the civics and history curricula in Israeli schools, to distort students' learning in a manner that would make them less understanding of and dedicated to the Zionist enterprise and therefore - in the twisted logic of those who then led the education ministry - more open to concessions for "peace." Limor Livnat, in the last Likud government, did much to reintroduce Jewish history and the genuine history of the Zionist enterprise into the curricula, but more must be done. As Israeli Nobel laureate Robert Aumann recently observed, for all the external threats, there is no greater threat to Israel's future than Israelis not understanding the rightness of their living in this land, the rightness of the sovereign Jewish state in the ancestral Jewish homeland.

 

Isaac: While the panel has stated the underlying problems honestly and well, I detect a certain wishful thinking, a willingness to let hope triumph over experience, in the readiness to look to Netanyahu as someone who will act to overcome them.  While admitting Netanyahu's failures as Prime Minister, David Hornik seems to believe this time will be different.  Why?  An applicant for employment is asked for references and his work record.  What he has done before is deemed the best available criterion for estimating how he will perform in future, not a perfect guide perhaps, but the best available.  

 

Even if we look at the most recent test Netanyahu faced, the destruction of Jewish communities in Gaza, his performance was, to put it charitably, deeply disappointing.  He clung to his position in the Sharon cabinet until just before the pullout from Gaza , and then, when his action was too late to have any impact, resigned.  In the model of John Kerry he could then say "I actually voted against the Gaza withdrawal after I voted for it."  The excuse David Hornik offers for Netanyahu's behavior as Prime Minister -- that he was pushed around by Clinton -- is no excuse at all.  (Nor does it excuse him to say that Begin was similarly pushed around by Carter at Camp David ; if anything, that unfortunate example -- and the consequences of Shamir's going to Madrid -- should have put Netanyahu on notice, making him wary that he not fall into the same trap.)  

 

A leader worthy of the name must have the ability to withstand pressures.  We speak as if Israeli leaders are somehow unique in being buffeted by pressures, but this is par for the course -- even for leaders of superpowers.  In May 1948 President Truman was under pressure from his own State Department (not to mention Arab states) not to recognize the State of Israel, but he did so.  At this moment President Bush is under enormous pressure, from public opinion, from the Democratically controlled Congress, even from members of his own party, to back down in Iraq; he nonetheless presses forward to try to stabilize that country. 

 

It is only by standing up to pressure that a leader has the chance to develop countervailing pressures.  If the "surge" shows signs of success, Bush may energize countervailing pressures favorable to his policies. The depressing pattern of Israeli leaders collapsing in the face of each demand, even folding preemptively before there is a demand (e.g. Sharon 's decision to destroy Gaza's Jewish communities) prevents any possibility of changing  U.S. policy.  While Hornik says it will be hard to reverse Israel's crisis unless the U.S. overcomes its delusional embrace of Abbas and Fatah as a supposed constructive force, how can one possibly expect this to occur while Israeli leaders maintain that same delusional embrace?  

 

Superpower policies are not fixed in stone, and there are seismic shifts which offer opportunities to reshape them.  The aftermath of 9/11 presented such an opportunity, to which Israeli leaders have proved blind.  As Caroline Glick says, while Israel is a central front, if not the central front, in the global jihad, in treating the war against Israel as if it were a unique war, Israeli leaders lose the opportunity to impress upon  U.S. leaders that weakening Israel is dangerous to America .  There are many in the United States , in Congress, the conservative media, the public (not just evangelical Christians), even in the administration who would be receptive to this message, if Israeli leaders would consistently and persistently articulate it.  Those who consider the task too "hard," (self-described "tired" leaders like Ehud Olmert) should retire from public life.

 

Which brings us back to where the leadership Israel needs might be found.  It can be argued that Netanyahu has the merit of being electable, but what is the point of returning to the same dry well?  If Netanyahu, as Ken Levin believes, is Israel 's best hope, Israel has small hope. David Hornik says I imply that the religious settlers should serve as a model for Israeli society but that this is a "psychological impossibility."  He finds the main hope "in secular, rational, realistic voices" like Netanyahu, Yuval Steinitz or Moshe Yaalon.  I'm not sure that reason and realism are adequate grounding for the man who would lead Israel in this most difficult of times.  Reason and realism can say give up, go where you can, while you can. 

 

An Israeli leader, whatever his degree of religious practice, must be imbued with a bedrock faith in Israel 's legitimate rights to her ancient land, a bedrock conviction that not everything is negotiable, and those convictions must be so strong they inure him to pressures, both internal and external. He must also possess the reason and realism that will enable him to mobilize the forces receptive to the message Caroline Glick articulates, forces which clearly exist in the United States, but are also, if less obviously, present in other parts of the world.             

 

Glick: One of the unique characteristics of the Israeli people, and of the Jewish people throughout our history, is that we have always sought perfection in how we live and in what we believe and what we seek for our world. In this, we are similar to the American people. And it is due to Jewish exceptionalism that we have achieved so many great things throughout our history and, conversely, have been so deeply hated by so many throughout our history. Here, again, we share a similar predicament with the Americans.

Yet there are two deep problems with our quest for exceptional accomplishments. First, as we know, man is incapable of perfection. We were created in God's image, but we are not and will never be divine, and so we will never achieve the perfection we seek. Secondly, by seeking perfection, we run the risk of blinding ourselves to the good.

Israeli politics are in many ways a reflection of this deep-seated tendency of Jews to demand the achievement of perfection. On the left and on the right, voters want for their leaders to lead them to the Promised Land. And they want for the Promised Land to be soft and easy and utopian. Life is not like that. Even when Moses led the Children of Israel to the Promised Land, we spent the better part of forty years rebelling against him and accusing him of leading us astray. And that was Moses, the greatest leader the Jews, and perhaps the world has ever had. Then, as now, we forget that politics is at its core, the art of the possible, as carried out by the fallible.

Binyamin Netanyahu, like the rest of his contemporaries in Israeli politics is no Moses - nor has he ever claimed to be. He is a statesman and a politician. And he is the best leader we have had since Yitzhak Shamir.

When he was prime minister, he brought levels of terrorism down by a factor of ten. Yassir Arafat and the rest of his minions were terrified of him. Working with arguably the most hostile American administration that any Israeli prime minister ever had, he forced the likes of Madeline Albright to acknowledge that Arafat was doing nothing to prevent terrorism. He demanded to renegotiate the Israeli withdrawal from Hebron. The original agreement made no allowance whatsoever for Israel's security concerns in the city and placed no demands on the PLO to abide by their pledge to take action against terrorism.

As for the Wye Accord, everyone is quick to be angry with Netanyahu for signing it while conveniently forgetting that he never implemented it because Arafat never abided by his commitments to fight terrorism and end the anti-Jewish incitement in the Palestinian Authority.

Moreover, during his tenure as Prime Minister, Netanyahu was able to introduce for the first time rational free market principles to the Israeli economy that by 1996 had become a sclerotic, socialist nightmare which was strangling economic initiative and keeping an enormous segment of the population in perpetual poverty. He did this against the wishes of the economic and social elites who screamed bloody murder and accused him of destroying Israeli society. He did against indescribable odds. Netanyahu stood almost alone in Israeli society in his understanding that economic strength is essential for national security. He understood that if Israel is an economic basket case, it will never be able to stand up to outside pressure from anyone.
 
As finance minister in Ariel Sharon's second government, after other governments had made a mess of everything he had done in office and so brought Israel to the verge of economic destruction, Netanyahu single-handedly turned the economy around. In the midst of a war against Israeli society, Netanyahu moved the economy from negative growth to over five percent annual growth rates and so transformed the economy - in time of war - into one of the strongest economies in the world - the envy of Europe. It was this economic revolution that enabled the government to wage war in Lebanon last summer without raising taxes or raising the deficit.

In 2005, Netanyahu undertook the most significant economic reform of his career -- the overhaul of the corrupt, centralized banking system. He resigned from office -- in protest against the surrender of Gaza and northern Samaria to Palestinian jihadists -- a day after the Knesset passed his banking reform into law. If he had not waited, the Sharon government would have abandoned the project.

I agree that it would have been desirable for Netanyahu to have resigned earlier and led the campaign against the withdrawals. But I can understand his desire to stay and see his reform passed. I also understand that because he was able to succeed in his position, today, the economy is the only sector of Israeli society that is not on the verge of collapse and as a result today there is hope that we will be able to rebuild our other sectors.

Netanyahu is an imperfect man and an imperfect leader. He disappointed many people. He is difficult to get along with. But to act as though he was a failure in office or that he has abandoned all the principles he stands for, is to lie in the face of reality.

For Israel to pull itself out of its present predicament, we do not need a perfect leader. We need a good leader. For Israel to pull itself out of its present predicament we do not need for everyone to be perfect. We need for a simple majority of Israelis to understand that we need to move in another direction. We need for leaders to be elected who are capable of making a change.

At all times, it is wrong to expect men to be gods. At all times, it is counterproductive to hold leaders to standards they cannot achieve as mere mortals. But in times of greatest peril, as Israel finds itself in today, it is irresponsible to demand results that cannot be achieved in the short run rather than understanding that to achieve greatness in the long run, it is important to found future greatness on the attainment of realistic and responsible goals on a daily basis.

By the same token, the fact that perfection cannot be achieved does not mean that we should stop seeking it. Our political visions ought to be rooted in aspirations for greatness and faith in our rightness. Such an anchoring of actions will all but guarantee a more consistent, studied progression of actions that will lead us not to perfection, but to security and safety in the medium and long term.

Luckily, Israel has leaders who can lead this country in the right direction. Unfortunately, for these men to lead us, we must first bring about the fall of the Olmert government and win a simple majority in the next general elections.


Keyes: Having agreed generally on the nature of the threats facing Israel, this panel has quickly evolved into a debate about who is most fit to lead the nation.  On this matter, I have a few observations.

 

First, it is abundantly clear that the present government has failed and must be replaced.   Orwell once said of Stanley Baldwin that "one could not even dignify him with the name of a stuffed shirt.  He was simply a hole in the air."  This seems to me a relatively accurate description of some of Israel's present day leaders.  Similarly, Orwell could easily have been referring to Israel 's current leadership when he wrote of the ruling English class "What is to be expected of them is not treachery, or physical cowardice, but stupidity, unconscious sabotage, an infallible instinct for doing the wrong thing."

  

The war in Lebanon was only the most recent disaster.   A few short months after the mighty IDF took on Hezbollah, the Lebanese terrorist group has emerged with an even greater capacity than before the war, according to Brig. -Gen. Yossi Baidatz, head of the Military Intelligence Research Division.  This is simply unacceptable.  Israeli deterrence has also been severely harmed by the outcome of the war.  What must Assad and Ahmadinejad think if a terrorist group like Hezbollah with only a few thousand fighters could hold its own against the vaunted Israeli army?  The IDF is tremendously powerful, but only if used appropriately.  Even the IDF can become ineffective when hamstrung by politicians and not given a sensible mandate.   Replacing the civilian leadership that bears ultimate responsibility for the outcome of the war in Lebanon is of the utmost importance.  

 

Second, the issue which is most vital for Israeli leaders to grasp today is the Iranian nuclear threat.   As this particular moment, whoever has the most clarity on Iran will get my vote.  This includes the ability to stand up to intense international pressure which is trying to force Israel to appease its enemies and dally.  Menachem Begin saw the Iraqi nuclear program for what it was—an existential threat of the highest magnitude and a risk that no rational nation should be forced to accept.  He took the extraordinary measure of ordering an air assault to destroy Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor.  That mission, though wildly unpopular in the international community, saved countless lives and was absolutely necessary.   Ahmadinejad's rhetoric today dwarfs that of Saddam in the 1980s.  Doubtless, such a mission against Iran would be far more complex.   Whoever leads Israel over the next few years must have unflinching confidence and nerves of steel. 

 

I strongly agree with Caroline that perfection cannot become the enemy of the good, to paraphrase an old proverb.   Every leader in history has made mistakes.  Churchill, Lincoln, Ben-Gurion, and other great men made severe tactical and even strategic mistakes in times of war and peace.   But on the whole, they were leaders of incredible resolve who saw right from wrong and tirelessly pursued their aims.  They were willing to take enormous risks for the betterment of their countries.   They withstood immense personal pressure.  Churchill and Lincoln specifically, were extraordinarily unpopular at crucial points in their careers.  

  

The general thrust of an administration is a much better barometer than one or two particular policies.   Netanyahu helped bring about a dramatic decrease in terrorism and for that he deserves credit.  His rhetoric on Iran is also very good.  Yaalon is a wonderful human being with the most noble of convictions.  If Netanyahu and Yaalon teamed up, that would be a hard combination to beat.

 

In 1950, Ben Gurion said "The most dangerous enemy to Israel 's security is the intellectual inertia of those who are responsible for security."  That is as true today as it was then.  Israel has an incredible army, educated populace, robust society, and a luminescent heritage.  What is most lacking today, are political leaders who have the personal qualities to guide this great nation—men and women of deep courage and unwavering moral clarity.  Sharansky is such a man, but alas, perhaps he is too good for the dirty business of politics.  Let us hope that Israel can transcend this most corrupt moment and once again elect leaders who are worthy of defending its good name.      

 

Hornik: Caroline Glick, Kenneth Levin, and David Keyes have made telling points in rounding out the picture regarding Netanyahu and giving him credit for his very real achievements. His energy, determination, and successes in the economic sphere, almost alone and against huge odds, have been little short of breathtaking. Although he is not a Ben-Gurion or a Begin, his capacities in both the economic and foreign/security spheres--particularly, as pointed out, the drastic drop in terrorism while he was prime minister--add up to a gifted and versatile individual with real leadership talents. 


I do not think the domestic pressures facing U.S. presidents like Truman or Bush, Jr., which Rael Jean Isaac mentions, are comparable to the geopolitical pressures Israel faces from a sole ally that is also a superpower. (For an immediate flavor of how brutal and intimidating those pressures can be, I recommend Moshe Arens's accounts of his dealings with James Baker in Arens's book Broken Covenant.) In any case, while we can argue about whether, in specific cases, Israeli leaders should or could have resisted the American pressures, the severity Ms. Isaac has expressed seems directed only at the Israeli side. But one might well ask why, whereas in Israel it is outright capitulationists or wishy-washy individuals like Peres, Peretz, or Livni who show enthusiasm for the Abbas-chase, in the U.S. it is not only liberal leaders like Clinton but also conservative ones like Bush and Rice who continue the decades-long American pursuit and courting of the Fatah movement and the obsession with the "two-state solution" of creating a twenty-second Muslim-Arab dictatorship on biblical land that would gravely threaten and destabilize both Israel and Jordan.


If Israeli leaders (those capable or desirous of doing so) need to be encouraged to stand up to the pressures, American leaders also need to be criticized for exerting them and for the shameful, persistent, bipartisan reflex, going back at least as far as Kissinger's pressures on Rabin in the 1970s, of handing territorial and other plums to the Arabs while progressively weakening a democratic ally. Although Ms. Isaac rightly points out that Israelis could do more to press this case in America , I suggest that it is mainly a task for Americans.

 

True, Israelis need leaders who not only can make rational points about security but can articulate and reinforce basic values and the national ethos. Although disappointingly Netanyahu seems generally better able to do this in addressing foreign audiences than in addressing Israelis, when he tends to take a technocratic and "spin"-based posture, those of us who are not ready to write off Israel as pretty much a flop and a failure outside of the religious-Zionist camp are aware of, for instance, Moshe Yaalon's ability to articulate deep truths about the Zionist endeavor and its enemies, and of his potentials as an Israeli leader of great substance, insight, and strength. Another bright spot is Member of Knesset Steinitz's intensive work with U.S. congressional and other leaders in developing joint understandings and approaches to the Iranian threat.

 

That Israel , a democracy under constant siege, has developed the reality-denying and appeasing tendencies seen in all other democracies that face enemies is not surprising. We can all agree that the present Olmert-Peretz-Livni government is disastrous, and most of us see a better alternative and hope it will be voted into office as soon as possible.

 

Levin: Again we all agree that the current Israeli government is a disaster. Those holding the three key portfolios, Olmert, Livni and Peretz, are subjecting the nation to a "perfect storm" of incompetence and self-delusion.


We all concur on the need to replace those presently in power as soon as possible. Of those politicians looking clear-eyed at Israel 's predicament and seeking to translate that clear-sightedness into policy, most are affiliated with Likud. Others whom we might wish to see in leadership positions, such as Natan Sharansky and Moshe Yaalon, are currently not involved in party leadership roles.


Once more, I share many of Rael Jean Isaac's concerns about Benjamin Netanyahu's previous stewardship of the government. And while I, as others, am in awe of his achievements as finance minister, noting his accomplishments in that office does not address his performance as prime minister. And, yes, terror attacks in Israel fell dramatically during his tenure. (It did so mainly because, under the 1992-96 Labor-Meretz coalition, Arafat and his associates paid no price for terror. Indeed, they were even rewarded for it, as some in the government, such as Yossi Sarid, argued - even as there was extensive evidence of Arafat's collusion in the terror and certainly of his praising of it and incitement of it - that Arafat was not clamping down on the terrorists because he was too weak to do so and that the Israeli response should be more concessions to him in order to strengthen his position; a line depressingly echoed in current government arguments for supporting Mahmoud Abbas. With Netanyahu as prime minister, it was clear that the government would use terror attacks as a reason to refuse further concessions, and so Arafat - the supposedly "weak" Arafat - decided it was politic to rein in the terror for a time and effectively did so.) But this decline in terror is also beside the point when one is noting such problems as Netanyahu's acquiescence to the Wye agreement.


Still, the best available alternative to the present fiasco of a government is Likud. In addition, the Israeli public, I believe, is much more prepared to be receptive to clear-sighted exposition of Israel's predicament and the steps it must take to defend itself, as well as to broader reaffirmation of Jewish rights in the Jewish homeland; and the best available voices for articulating these messages are also within Likud. More particularly, it is Netanyahu's voice.


One can recognize the problems of his previous premiership, harbor concerns about a reprise of those problems in a second term as prime minister, and yet fervently desire to see Likud returned to power as soon as possible.


Isaac: Mr. Keyes notes that given our agreement on the nature of the threats Israel faces, this panel has evolved into a debate on who is most fit to lead the nation.  Here I seem to be the chief warning voice that placing faith in Netanyahu, clinging to the hope that he will act differently this time round, is to court failure and this Israel can simply not afford in its current critical situation.

           

Caroline Glick sets up a straw man when she invokes "perfection" as the standard to which Netanyahu is being unfairly held.  True, Netanyahu was an excellent Finance Minister, a position to which one hopes he will return.  But character is fate, and Netanyahu simply lacks the character necessary for the role of Prime Minister; he lacks political courage and resolve, the willingness to abide by bedrock principles and commitments, even when the going is tough. 

 

Alas, no matter what the issue, in big matters and small, Netanyahu showed the same distressing inability to hold his ground.  In his 1995 campaign he declared "reciprocity" would be the central principle in relations with the PLO.  On being elected, he refused to meet with Arafat until the PLO ceased its violations of Oslo.  But when the U.S. demanded "progress" in the "peace process" he met with Arafat anyway. The Netanyahu government issued a steady stream of reports about the PLO's violations of Oslo, but since in practice it did nothing to make continued negotiations (and concessions) dependent on compliance, Netanyahu's rhetoric on the subject became empty bombast.  The situation became so bad that erstwhile supporters resorted to satire. In a speech to the Likud Party meeting in March 1997 Benny Begin declared:  "Arafat releases terrorists and so does Israel. Arafat smuggles in weapons and we give him assault rifles to round off his stores. We have security men in Jerusalem and so do they. We have government offices in Jerusalem and so do they."  

 

Glick tries to cast a favorable light on Netanyahu's 1997 agreement to withdraw from Hebron. This is what Netanyahu had said of Hebron on December 7, 1994. "We dwell in Hebron not out of benevolence but as a right. Hebron belongs to the Jewish people eternally as a result of our right and as a result of our strength, our strength of faith, our strength to stand up for what is legitimately ours." Notice this was said more than a year after the 1993 Oslo agreement, whose provisions, Netanyahu would claim in 1997, gave his government no choice but to relinquish Hebron.  But whoever heard of an agreement that only one side was bound to honor?  And contrary to what Glick says, Netanyahu did not improve on the earlier agreement. Counterterrorism expert Yigal Carmon made a detailed analysis for the Israeli daily Yediot Achronot on January 16, 1997 and found the new agreement made the identical failure to condition Israeli withdrawals on PLO compliance.  Moreover, Carmon reported, Netanyahu's claim that he had won "American guarantees" in the agreement, was simply false.

 

At Wye Netanyahu faced -- and failed -- his most crucial test.  Making utter mockery of the principle of reciprocity --  Arafat had  failed to honor a single commitment -- Netanyahu now offered up 40% of Judea and Samaria, a safe corridor between those areas and Gaza, more releases of terrorists from prison, even an airport in Gaza to permit Arab aircraft to fly over Israeli cities.  Glick defends this performance by saying that while people are angry with Netanyahu for signing the Wye Accord they forget he never implemented it because of Arafat's violations.  But this is like shrugging off an attempted murder because the bullet failed to kill. It overlooks the impact of this terrible agreement in demoralizing Netanyahu's supporters in Israel and Israel's well-wishers abroad.  

 

Nor should we forget that Netanyahu sought to return the Golan to Syria.  Daniel Pipes has described the dispute over the details on his weblog ( June 27, 2004).  Was Netanyahu prepared to go back to the 1967 border (which Clinton and Dennis Ross assert in their respective memoirs) or did Netanyahu hold out for several kilometers beyond the international border line? But the point is that Netanyahu was prepared to return the heights to Syria and clearly a concomitant, destroy the Jewish communities there.  What does that presage for a return of Netanyahu to the Prime Minister's office?

 

Glick says that Netanyahu was the best Prime Minister since Yitzhak Shamir but this is what Shamir had to say about Netanyahu in an interview with Maariv in 1997: "The fact is he's working against the principles of the Likud. He has no principles at all. I don't see any principles."

 

So I agree, one should not demand perfection or expect men to be gods.  Yet surely Israel is entitled to want something better than a leader in the relentless pursuit of imperfection.  Glick speaks of founding "future greatness on the attainment of realistic and responsible goals on a daily basis."  That begs the question of what realistic and responsible goals on a daily basis are.  Judging Netanyahu by the record, for him they are what U.S. government officials demand at any given moment. That is not the basis for future greatness but the state's destruction.  

 

What are the characteristics of great leaders? It is hard to improve on what Mr. Keyes says: individuals with incredible resolve who see right from wrong and tirelessly pursue their aims, willing to take enormous risks and withstand immense personal pressure.  In the case of Israel I would add that a true leader would not hold out promises of peace but steadily explain the realities to his people, no matter how unpalatable. A true leader would seek to lift his people out of the slough of despond, reawakening their faith in themselves, reenergizing them to work for national renewal. There are many wonderful people in Israel thirsting for direction and hope. 

 

We must be honest with ourselves. To expect anything different from Netanyahu now because he says the right things is folly. He has always talked the talk, but never been able to walk the walk.  Netanyahu is surprising in the sense that it is not as if he had a set of beliefs prior to assuming power and then modified them once he experienced the constraints of power.  In his case it's as if he had a split personality, one that articulates values, the other that ignores them in practice. 

 

To say that Netanyahu is Israel's best hope is to give up in advance, something I would hope this panel at least is not prepared to do.   Israel cannot afford another round with hollow leaders. Eventually everything gets hollowed out including the army, as we saw horrifyingly in Lebanon. Israel's soldiers may still be fine, but that goes for nothing if leadership fails.


A final point: David Hornik says that I focus only on the Israeli side when so much of the problem is American pressure, from conservative Republican administrations as much as from liberal Democratic ones. If Israeli leaders need to be encouraged to stand up to these pressures, he argues, the primary responsibility is on Americans to be criticizing American leaders for exerting them. I would certainly agree about this bipartisan pattern of pressures, and indeed they go back much farther than Kissinger's pressures on Rabin in the 1970s, which Mr. Hornik takes as a starting point.  They go back to the beginning of the state; from the outset U.S. administrations had a disastrous obsession with "territories for peace," at that time wanting Israel to make territorial concessions in the Negev. I fully agree that Americans need to exert pressure on their government.  Unfortunately it is difficult to be more Catholic than the Pope; unless Israel has a principled policy, it is difficult to effectively exert such pressure.  I would add that American Jews are also much to blame, most of them far more concerned with gay rights and abortion than with Israel's survival. 

 

Glick: In 1992, angry over Shamir's decision to bow to US pressure after the Gulf War and attend the "peace" conference at Madrid, Shamir's coalition partners on the Right brought down his government. They were mad at him for "abandoning his principles" by going to a conference where he conceded nothing to the Arabs.

 

As a result, the Shamir government fell, Israel went to elections and Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres formed the next government. They brought us Oslo.

A big thank you is therefore due to the brilliant political strategists on the "pure" right, Hanan Porat and Geula Cohen et. al. who, while demanding unshirking loyalty to the path, thought Yitzhak Shamir too weak and so helped bring Arafat to the outskirts of Jerusalem.

 

Then, in 1999, the purist Benny Begin resigned his position in the Netanyahu government and formed the Tekuma party. He ran against Netanyahu in the elections that year and so split the vote on the Right. For his part, Sharansky and his Yisrael B'Aliyah party ran an anti-religious campaign for the Russian vote and supported Labor leader Ehud Barak for Prime Minister.

 

Netanyahu lost, Likud went down to 19 seats and we got Ehud Barak as prime minister. Barak, in turn brought us the handover of south Lebanon to Hizbullah; the Camp David Summit where he offered the Temple Mount to Arafat; and jihad replete with more than 1000 murdered Israelis, and international hatred and criminalization of Zionism and the Jewish state.

 

So a big thank you to Benny Begin and Natan Sharansky et. al. for helping to usher in the Barak years by getting rid of the bogeyman Netanyahu who brought terrorism down to a minimum, turned the economy around and attempted to force a peace crazed Clinton administration and Israeli media to recognize Arafat for the terrorist he was.

 

Then there was the 2002 Likud primary. It took place before Sharon decided to become a charter member of the far Left but after he had already handed over Israel's post-9/11 foreign policy to Shimon Peres and corrupted Israeli politics beyond recognition with the help of his sons and his public relations advisors working hand in glove with the leftist media in Israel.

 

Sharon waited until over 500 Israelis had been murdered to launch the Defensive Shield counter-terror offensive in Judea and Samaria and refused to take action in any concerted manner in Gaza. At the same time, while grudgingly taking action against the terror infrastructures in Judea and Samaria, he bowed to US pressure and took no action against the Palestinian Authority which stood behind that terror infrastructure and so guaranteed that Israel would not win the war.

 

Moreover, after September 11, 2001 he idiotically acceded to the ridiculous and geo-strategically disastrous fiction that the jihad against Israel has nothing to do with the jihad against the rest of the Free World. In so doing, in a stroke he destroyed the coherence not only of Israel's counter-terror strategy, but the counter-terror strategy of the entire Free World.

 

Most importantly, Sharon declared that as far as he was concerned, Judea, Samaria and Gaza were under "occupation" and that he supported establishing an independent Palestinian state in the areas, knowing full well that Israel cannot survive without defensible borders and that any lands Israel vacates become bases of operations for jihad against Israel and the rest of the world.

 

Netanyahu challenged Sharon in the primaries on all these issues. But there were people there who said, "Who is Netanyahu to talk when he gave away Hebron and signed Wye?" So blinded were Netanyahu's purist detractors by their hatred of him that they refused to recognize the dangers of Sharon regardless of how many times they were warned. They supported Sharon and his lackey Ehud Olmert. Sharon returned the favor by expelling the Jews from Gaza and northern Samaria; bringing Hamas to power; setting the course for the war in Lebanon last summer; decimating the Likud party; decimating the IDF's General Staff; corrupting the Police Force; and shattering Israel's intellectual and ideological support base in the US by inducing almost every single American Jewish organization to support land giveaways to Hamas and Fatah.

 

In 2006, after Sharon and Olmert had turned Gaza into a Hamas-controlled terrorist camp and Olmert announced his plans for further mass expulsions of Jews and land giveaways to terrorist organizations, Netanyahu ran again at the head of the Likud party Sharon had ripped apart. Again, the right-wing purists focused their campaigns on demonizing their great foe: Netanyahu.  Many defected to Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party that is now a full partner in Ehud Olmert's failed government.

 

There is a reason that the right wing in Israel has been so unsuccessful holding onto political power even as its analysis of world affairs has turned out to be right again and again. The Israeli right fails to grasp the "big tent" theory of politics – that government is maintained with coalitions of 50% + 1. The right fails to grasp that being right in our strategic understandings and moral underpinnings is not good enough. We must give people reasons to join us, not dismiss so many of those who are on our side while childishly thinking that we can build coalitions with our enemies. This is not how one governs a country.

 

The Israeli media is almost monolithically leftist and yet, rather than understand that we need to open up the media market, build new media outlets and support the alternative outlets that already exist, right wingers cling to the old ones and pretend they can somehow change them from within, or fight with one another over the crumbs the Left throws us every now and again.

 

So too, the courts in Israel are post-Zionist and yet the Right insists on continuing to petition the Supreme Court rather than build wide coalitions with others to reform the court system, amend the laws for selecting Israel's judges and overhaul the criminal justice system.

 

Israel is in dire straits and it finds itself in these straits in part because of the immaturity of our political activists. We are a people with a long tradition of learning and faith but a very short history of wielding actual power. Much of our political failure can be chalked up to inexperience. But it is deeply disturbing to watch otherwise clear-thinking people tearing down the foundations of a recovery because the foundations don't match 100% of their expectations, rather than building wide coalitions based on shared interests with as many people as possible to ensure that we emerge intact and even victorious.

 

Let us understand that, despite my criticism, I appreciate the good work of people like Natan Sharansky, and I want to see more of him and of people like him in Israeli politics. I support people like Sharansky and the former Chief of General Staff of the Israeli military Moshe Ya'alon even though I think that both have been mistaken in the past and I do not agree with everything they say today because it is clear to me that they have brought far more benefit than damage to Israel and because there is certainly much further benefit that Israel can enjoy from their public service in the future. I support them – and Netanyahu – because the demands of statecraft require that we be led by the politicians we have rather than the politicians we may wish we had.

 

As to Rael Jean Issac's specific critiques of Netanyahu's leadership, I would just say that her reading of the Hebron agreement, like her analysis of the rest of his record, is faulty. I was in the Hebron negotiations in my position in the military. During the period in question, I served as the Coordinator of Negotiations in the Ministry of Defense. I drafted the initial agreement on Civil Affairs in Hebron just as I worked on earlier accords during the Rabin-Peres governments. I did not support the IDF redeployment in Hebron at the time and continue to view it, like the rest of the Oslo process as a massive failure. But I do believe that if the agreement that Peres and Rabin acceded to had been implemented, Israel would have found itself in a much more precarious situation in the city than that which presented itself as a result of the updated agreement that Netanyahu achieved.

 

While Yigal Carmon does wonderful work at MEMRI, he is simply wrong about the Hebron agreement, as he has been about other analyses of Israeli political developments. I didn't read Carmon's critique at the time, but I did notice that he supported Barak's candidacy for premier in 1999 and thought that Barak's offer to Arafat at Camp David was a brilliant idea because it exposed Arafat. Interestingly, I haven't noticed that Carmon has had anything to say since Camp David about the fact that after Barak "unmasked" Arafat, he refused to defend Israel but rather continued to attempt to give Arafat the Temple Mount until he was finally thrown out of office in January 2001.

Keyes: It is nearly axiomatic that anyone elected Prime Minister of Israel will go on to break many of his or her most ardent election promises.  For decades, and even up to the days before he was elected, Sharon was adamantly opposed to unilateral withdrawal.  It would be a reward for terror, he said.  It would bring rockets deeper into the Israeli heart-land.  It would become a safe-haven for terrorists groups.  Once in power, Sharon reversed his position 180 degrees and led the campaign for unilateral disengagement from Gaza.  This led to the rise of Hamas.  Sharon eventually subdued the second intifada but, as Caroline correctly points out, waited until 500 Israeli civilians had been blown up before launching Operation Defensive Shield.  He also freed many hundreds of Palestinian prisoners which encouraged future waves of terrorism. 


In 1999, Barak promised a "Jerusalem, united and under our rule forever, period."   As Prime Minister, he offered the Palestinians half of Jerusalem.  He also attempted to give Arafat a state that would have left Israel with utterly indefensible borders.  Netanyahu brought terror to an all-time low, but made mistakes as well.  Peres was woefully weak in the face of relentless bombings.   Rabin promised not to negotiate with the PLO but did exactly that one year later.  He, perhaps more than anyone else, was responsible for legitimizing Arafat.   

     

I take for granted that much of what is said on the campaign trail is rhetoric tailored to specific audiences.  My ideal leader is the person who breaks the fewest of his promises.  Look at Bush.  Like clockwork he declares his opposition to tyranny throughout the world.   And yet, he maintains close alliances with despots like Musharraf, Mubarak, and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.  What matters most, however, is that the two biggest decisions of his presidency—the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq—did more to dismantle apparatuses of tyranny and terror than anything else in a very long time.  50 million people were liberated from dictatorship and allowed to partake in consensual government for the first time ever.   A veritable shockwave was sent throughout the region.  The elimination of two of the most repressive regimes of the past several decades is a beautiful thing that forever changed the world.  While I fervently hope the White House distances itself from odious autocrats like Abdullah and Mubarak, I still recognize that Bush has put democratization on the map as never before.  Democracy is the talk of the world—the new barometer by which to measure progress—and that is due in no small part the Bush administration.  While there is no perfect government and certainly no perfect president, we must hold every leader's feet to the fire and hope that more good is done than bad. 


Caroline Glick is saying that Netanyahu is better than the present competition.  Rael Jean Isaac is saying that's not good enough.   What I believe Israel needs is a Prime Minister who will return to the basics.  Rewarding terror encourages terror.  Releasing prisoners sends the worst possible message.   If your kitchen is on fire, you cannot "disengage" by moving into the living room.  Rational enemies must be deterred and irrational ones must be struck first.  There is no substitute for victory.  Nations should only be trusted as much as they trust their own people.   


Frankly, I do not know who can or will fulfill these principles.  But whoever it is, to quote the great philosopher Mr. T, "I pity the fool."  

 

FP: Rael Isaac, David Hornik, Caroline Glick, David Keyes and Kenneth Levin, thank you for joining Frontpage Symposium.






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March 1, 2007, 9:13 PM

If Iran gets the bomb

With the Bush administration now happily basking in the glory of positive coverage in The New York Times and enjoying the warm embrace of the James Baker/Brent Scowcroft wing of the Republican Party, it is hard to imagine that it will reconsider its decision to abandon the Bush Doctrine. That doctrine, named after President George W. Bush and most forcefully enunciated by him, eschewed appeasement of terror-supporting, weapons of mass destruction-proliferating enemies of the free world.

Today, what Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice refers to as a "diplomatic initiative" aimed at appeasing terror-supporting, and weapons of mass destruction-proliferating Iran, and its terror-supporting, and weapons of mass destruction-proliferating Syrian colony is about to take off in Baghdad. So too, this week, the US began normalizing its relations with the terror-supporting, weapons of mass destruction-proliferating Stalinist dictatorship in Pyongyang.


Bush's traditional opponents are beside themselves with glee.


With regard to North Korea, these opponents are quick to note that there has always been great uncertainty about the level to which Kim Jung Il has advanced in his illicit uranium enrichment program. With regard to Iran, in an interview with the Times, former congressman Lee Hamilton warned that the Bush administration had better not think that the negotiations with the mullahs will lead anywhere quickly.


As the co-chairman of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group which last November called for the president to appease Teheran and Damascus by forcing Israel to surrender the Golan Heights and Judea and Samaria explained, negotiations with the mullahs have to be open-ended. In his words, "You can't expect miracles here. There has to be a sustained effort. Successful diplomacy requires very careful preparation and very extensive follow-through."


For his part, Hamilton's partner, former secretary of state James Baker, ecstatically declared on Tuesday night, "America must be prepared to talk to our enemies."


What is lacking from both the media's reportage of the Bush administration's strategic about-face, and the administration's traditional detractors' praise for that sudden turn is an analysis of the likely downside of appeasing the mullahs. For instance, on Wednesday the Times ran a report on North Korea under the heading, "US Concedes Uncertainty on North Korean Uranium Effort."


The thrust of the article, which was based on interviews with administration sources, was that while North Korea's commitment to acquire nuclear weapons has never been in doubt, at no time has the US had certain knowledge of its actual capabilities. In light of the uncertainty relating to Pyongyang's capabilities, the Bush administration was wrong - the Times's sources clucked - to have confronted it over its intentions.


By the same token, those who applaud the administration's decision to engage the nuclear weapons-seeking mullahs in Teheran argue that the administration would be wrong to confront Iran for its stated intention to "wipe Israel off the map," and to bring about "a world without America," since US intelligence services are incapable of bringing unequivocal information regarding the state of Iran's nuclear weapons program.


Clearly there is something wrong with this analysis. If what is not in doubt is Iran's commitment to acquiring nuclear weapons, rather than base its policies on a best-case-scenario regarding Teheran's unknown capabilities, the US and its allies should be basing their policies on a calculation of the risks a nuclear armed Iran would constitute for global security.


BROADLY SPEAKING, there are three possible scenarios of how Iran would likely behave were it to become a nuclear power. In the most optimistic scenario, Iran would not attack Israel or any other country with its atomic arsenal, but would rather use it as an instrument of international and regional influence. In this scenario, Iran would reap economic advantage from its nuclear status by threatening oil shipping in the Persian Gulf and so jack up worldwide oil and gas prices. A massive economic dislocation in the oil consuming countries would no doubt ensue. In this state of affairs, all international economic sanctions against Iran would disappear and states would begin fighting with one another for the right to develop Iran's oil and gas fields and refining capabilities.


Operating under Iran's nuclear umbrella, terror groups like Hizbullah and Al-Qaida would feel free to attack at will throughout the world. The rates of terrorism - of both the organized and lone wolf variety - would increase exponentially.


Regionally, Iran would work to export its Khomeinist Shi'ite revolution. It would increase its interference in both Iraq and Afghanistan and so neutralize and defeat coalition and NATO efforts to stabilize those countries.


As to Saudi Arabia, there can be little doubt that Iran would seek to foment an uprising of Saudi Shi'ites who happen to live as a repressed minority on top of the Saudi oil fields.


Hizbullah's aim to overthrow the Saniora government in Lebanon would receive unprecedented Iranian assistance that would likely lead to the Shi'ite takeover of the country. So too, under the Iranian nuclear umbrella, Palestinian terrorism against Israel, and Syrian adventurism against Israel would rise steeply. The regimes in Egypt and Jordan as well as Saudi Arabia would be sunk into chaos, insurgency and war as they themselves entered a nuclear arms race the likes of which the world has never seen.


In a moderate scenario, not only would all the events that would likely occur in a best-case scenario occur, Iran would also make indirect use of its nuclear arsenal. In this case, Iran would likely use one of its existing terror proxies in Sinai, Gaza or Lebanon, or invent a new terror group in one or all of these areas. Iran would transfer one or more nuclear weapons to its terror group of choice, which would then attack Israel and cause the second Holocaust in 70 years. Iran would deny any connection to the attack, although it would shower high praise on its perpetrators.


While Iran's leaders from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on down have expressed a willingness to endure an Israeli nuclear second-strike, judging from the way in which the Western policy elites are treating Iran today, the Iranians can have every expectation that they can wipe Israel off the map and pay no price for their aggression, either from a destroyed Israel or from the US.


The New York Times and its counterparts will likely note that there is no absolute certainty that Iran was behind the attack. Even the skimpiest Iranian denials or vague allegations against countries like Pakistan or Russia or "rogue" scientists from the former Soviet Union or Pakistan will likely be seized upon as a justification for not responding to the attack. Israel, it will be said, had it coming anyway, because it refused to negotiate with the "militants" from Hamas, preferring instead to maintain its "occupation" of the Golan Heights and Jerusalem.


In the worst case scenario, not only would Iran implement the best case and the moderate case scenario, it would also widen its network of allies while neutralizing its competitors in the Muslim world in order to expand its exportation of the Khomeinist revolution worldwide. All this it would do in an effort to achieve its longstanding aim of destroying America. Here the Iranians would be operating under the reasonable assumption that Europe will be neutral in the conflict, and Russia and China would likely support them against the US - at least covertly.


In this scenario, the Iranians would strengthen their alliances with America-haters in Latin America like Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega and Cuban dictator Fidel Castro or his heirs. It could openly supply these countries with nuclear bombs or strengthen Hizbullah's foothold in South and North America. In the latter case, Iran could transfer nuclear weapons and delivery systems to its terror proxies and use these networks, which include Hizbullah cells that are already active in the US, to attack the US.


Most brazenly, Teheran could collaborate with its ally North Korea in developing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of attacking US cities with nuclear weapons launched from Iran. At the same time, given the US's large nuclear arsenal and ICBM capabilities, it is less likely that the Iranians would attack the US directly.


IN LIGHT of this analysis it seems that in spite of the praise it is reaping from the policy jet-set, the Bush administration would do well to reexamine its new policy toward Iran. It should accept their criticism and revert to basing its policy toward the nuclear-proliferating, terror-supporting rogue state on what is known rather than on what is unknown.


Since Iran not only wants nuclear weapons, but has an active nuclear weapons program, the question that should be guiding policymakers is not whether Iran should be negotiated with, but rather, whether the US is willing to accept any of the likely scenarios of what will transpire if Iran does in fact acquire nuclear weapons. If the US is not willing to accept any of those scenarios, then it should be asking itself what must be done to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.


While Europe may be willing to sit on the sidelines of this fight, just as it sat on the sidelines of the Cold War, and did little to prevent the Nazi conquest of the continent in World War II, Israel has no such luxury.


In light of this, it is deeply disturbing that this week the Olmert-Livni-Peretz government reacted to the US move toward appeasement by claiming that it will have no impact on Israel. Rather than trying to gloss over the dangers, Israel should be actively engaging the many forces in Washington and elsewhere who understand the dangers of a nuclear armed Iran. Together we should be working tirelessly to ratchet up support for a policy based on the understanding that the world cannot abide a nuclear-armed Iran.

Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.

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